Adapting To Industry Changes

Introducing the Music Tech Ownership Ouroboros, 2025 edition ✨ The music-tech sector has come of age. What started as a relatively niche investment thesis five years ago has matured into a powerhouse market segment, drawing tens of billions in capital since 2020. For five years, we at Water & Music have been mapping these shifting power dynamics through our “Music Tech Ownership Ouroboros” — a living document that traces the complex web of investments, ownership stakes, and strategic acquisitions shaping music and tech. Our latest update adds over 30 new relationships to the map, primarily from growth investments and M&A deals in 2024. The takeaway: Private equity firms and major labels are locked in a battle for control over independent music infrastructure. As indie market share keeps climbing, owning the tech backbone is becoming as valuable as owning the actual rights. Highlights from 2024 include: - Hellman & Friedman's majority stake in Global Music Rights — making GMR the third PRO owned by a private equity firm - Virgin Music Group's acquisitions of Downtown Music ($775M), [PIAS], and Outdustry - Flexpoint Ford's growth investments in Create Music Group ($165M) and Duetti ($34M) - KKR's acquisition of Superstruct Entertainment ($1.4B) and debt financing in HarbourView Equity Partners ($500M) - EQT Group and TCV's co-ownership of Believe (alongside CEO Denis Ladegaillerie), as part of taking Believe private - Vinyl Group's acquisitions of Serenade, Mediaweek Australia, Funkified Events, and Concrete Playground Link to the full interactive chart with sources is in the comments. Would love to hear what you think, and if any of these deals feel particularly standout or surprising to you! #musicbusiness #musicindustry #musictech #privateequity #musicinvestment #musicrights

Telcos, Welcome to Your New Customers: AI Agents The iPhone marked a before and after in telecom. Networks engineered for voice collapsed under video demand. Operators spent billions on spectrum, radios, and fibre backhaul, but ARPU sank from $22.39 in 2009 to $13.56 by 2019 and another 20 percent by 2023. The value was captured by Apple, Google, and digital platforms, not the carriers who carried the load. A second shock is arriving with AI agents. These are not IoT devices with dumb SIMs but autonomous pieces of software, often cloud-based, that authenticate, negotiate, and transact thousands of times per second. Their arrival reshapes every part of the telco business. Networks shift from managing downstream video streams to orchestrating upstream biometric data, inference payloads, and relentless bursts of signalling. Edge compute becomes the new backbone, replacing CDNs as the critical layer of performance. Operations and BSS no longer revolve around monthly bundles but around real-time billing, event-based charging, and automatic SLA credits. The customer journey breaks apart: the “user” is no longer a human who can be persuaded by advertising or loyalty points, but an algorithm that selects providers based only on latency, trust, and price. Commercial logic pivots from ARPU to RPI, revenue per thousand verified interactions, with identity and determinism becoming the true products. Even the ecosystem map shifts: just as Apple and Google seized the interface in the smartphone era, hyperscalers are already racing to build agent marketplaces. SoftBank has announced plans to deploy one billion AI agents across its companies, and forecasts put the telecom opportunity at $188 billion by 2034. Nobody willl invite Telcos to the party. We will need to claim our role this time, or once again build the infrastructure while someone else takes the economics. Full analysis here: https://lnkd.in/gvkTKqzx

Shopping Malls Find New Life as College Campuses CLEVELAND — Where teenagers once congregated around food courts and shoppers browsed department store racks, students now hurry to lectures, study in converted retail spaces, and even live in former anchor stores. Across America, developers and educational institutions are reimagining struggling shopping centers as college campuses and student housing, creating an unexpected second act for these fading temples of consumerism. These spaces were built for crowds, The infrastructure is already perfectly suited for educational purposes—wide corridors, multiple entrances, food service capabilities, and acres of parking. The transformation makes financial sense. Construction costs for new university buildings have soared past $500 per square foot in many regions, while renovating existing mall structures can cost 30 to 40 percent less, according to the American Association of College Facilities Officers. At the former Eastgate Mall outside Cincinnati, classrooms now occupy what was once a Sears. Students study in a library housed in an old JCPenney, while the food court serves as a student union with healthier dining options than its previous incarnation. "We're addressing two problems simultaneously," said Cincinnati Mayor Aftab Karma Singh Pureval. "We're preventing urban blight while expanding educational access in communities that desperately need it." The trend is spreading nationwide. The University of Arizona established a campus at The Bridges, a converted Tucson mall complex. Northern Virginia Community College transformed a vacant Macy's into a medical training center complete with simulation labs. For students, the benefits extend beyond novelty. Mall-campuses tend to be more accessible by public transportation than traditional universities, serving commuter students and those from lower-income backgrounds who cannot afford to live on campus. Some developers are even converting upper floors and outparcels into affordable student housing, addressing another critical need in higher education. Educational leaders see these conversions as more than stopgap solutions. The approach fights urban blight while providing local educational opportunities that don't require students to leave their communities. "Instead of one massive central campus, universities can create satellite locations where students already live and work." With retail analysts predicting thousands more mall closures in the coming decade, and higher education facing infrastructure challenges, these conversions represent an elegant solution to multiple problems. What was once a sign of economic decline may become the classroom of tomorrow.

Like many folks, I've spent some time reviewing Spotify’s latest Loud & Clear report, which highlights Spotify’s growing financial impact and candidly addresses debates about artist compensation. In 2024, Spotify distributed $10 billion in royalties, with the number of artists earning significant royalties tripling since 2017. While per-stream royalty concerns persist, Spotify’s global reach has undeniably created new opportunities for artists worldwide, across various languages and territories. Reflecting on this, I view the music industry's evolution over the past 25 years through three distinct eras: 2000s: The Gatekeeper Era – Dominated by physical CDs, major-label control, radio discovery, and high-budget music videos on platforms like MTV and BET. Opportunities were scarce, with a limited number of artists getting through industry gatekeepers. The late 2000s saw music blogs signaling early digital change. 2010s: The Streaming Revolution – Streaming platforms reshaped discovery, building upon momentum from blogs and digital media. DIY distribution empowered independent artists, shifting economics towards touring, merchandise, and streaming revenue. 2020s: The Era of Artist Ownership – Artists increasingly own their masters, directly monetize fanbases (Discord, Patreon, Even), and leverage short-form platforms like TikTok for marketing. Merchandising evolved into private labels, limited drops, and digital collectibles. This timeline isn't perfect nor universally applicable, but it captures significant industry shifts. In this week's bag drop—"The New Music Economy of Abundance"—I'll further analyze insights from Spotify’s Loud & Clear report, explore broader industry trends, and discuss what they mean for artists today. To receive the full breakdown, subscribe to my free newsletter: www.newbagdrops.com

The recent transformations within leading Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) and Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) companies signify a paradigm shift underscored by the necessity to adapt to evolving consumer preferences. As these brands pivot away from traditional food categories toward personal care and wellness, they are responding to critical market dynamics: shrinking profit margins in food sectors, a surge in health-conscious consumer behavior, and eroding brand loyalty among food products. This transition illustrates how businesses must not only recognize but anticipate changes in consumer values, particularly the growing inclination towards premium self-care and wellness products. The implications of this shift are profound. For instance, while the global personal care market is projected to reach $758 billion by 2030, the sluggish growth within processed food sectors signals a pressing need for CPG leaders to innovate continually. The evidence revealed through L'Oréal’s robust revenue growth in skincare juxtaposed with declines in traditional food categories serves as a clarion call for all CPG firms: the future lies in aligning product offerings with consumer demands for personalization, health optimization, and quality over quantity. Thus, the critical question posed to FMCG executives is not merely one of survival but of strategic foresight: Are you actively redefining your brand strategy to harness the potential of emerging categories, or are you resigned to merely managing a downward trajectory? This moment is not just about adaptation; it represents an opportunity for reinvention and sustained relevance in a rapidly changing consumer landscape.

Andrej Karpathy has released one of the most comprehensive guides on LLMs In just 3.5 hours, he dives deep into the architecture, training, and applications of LLMs. Here’s what makes this video a must-watch: 1. Evolution of Language Models Karpathy traces the journey from simple statistical methods to advanced neural networks like Transformers. He explains how these models are trained on vast datasets, enabling them to generate human-like text and perform tasks like translation and code generation. 2. Inner Workings Unveiled A significant part of the video breaks down complex concepts such as attention mechanisms, tokenization, and large-scale data in model training. Karpathy also addresses common challenges like model bias and ethical considerations, emphasizing the importance of fine-tuning models for specific applications. 3. Practical Applications Karpathy highlights how LLMs are transforming various industries, including healthcare, finance, and entertainment. He provides examples of how these models improve services, enhance user experiences, and drive innovation. 4. Clear Explanations Karpathy’s ability to simplify complex topics makes this video accessible to both newcomers and seasoned professionals. His thorough analysis offers valuable insights into the future of artificial intelligence. For those looking to deepen their understanding of LLMs, this video is an invaluable resource. Watch the full video to learn from one of the leading experts in the field: https://lnkd.in/dswuqDhm

It's out! Today, Textile Exchange has published its report, authored by yours truly, exploring how we can reimagine growth in the fashion, apparel and textile industry. This landscape analysis is intended to provide a state of play on this highly complex and contentious topic - outlining why we need to shift from exponential increases in production and consumption volumes based on unchecked resource extraction. Instead it provides a vision for alignment with regenerative economy and post-growth principles, centering a complete reimagining of value creation. Very simply, continued improvements on the product and process level are not going to be enough for the level of change required. What this report shows is the need for reduction as an active strategy, addressing head on the tension that presents. Importantly, it emphasises doing so as necessary to ensure resilience; mitigating future risk due to supply chain instability, resource depletion, overreliance on finite resources and incoming legislation. The report proposes a suite of pathways for change, including eliminating virgin fossil-based synthetics, designing products for longevity and reflecting externalities in their pricing, scaling circular business models, and addressing marketing practices. It further explores new success metrics, mobilising finance and alternative ownership and governance models, as well as the need to ensure a just transition—protecting the rights, livelihoods and well-being of people across the value chain. These pathways will require systemic support to achieve anything close to a post-growth future, with the need for ambitious government policy and collective corporate commitment to get there. The report calls on business leaders, policymakers and financial stakeholders to take immediate, meaningful steps. This isn't simple and it won't be easy. As I say in the press release: “Reimagining growth represents a fundamental paradigm shift, requiring not just incremental adjustments but a complete transformation of how the industry operates. As a challenge of systems change, inherently rooted in complexity, it will demand contributions from all stakeholder groups to achieve a more sustainable and equitable future.” Thank you to all of the incredible people who contributed to this report in consultations, workshops, expert interviews, review processes and ear bending by me. And mostly thank you to Beth Jensen and Claire Bergkamp for their incredible support and leadership on this work over the past three years, and for having the courage of conviction, alongside the Textile Exchange board and wider team, to table this topic and publish something so bold and so crucial for the future of our industry, our planet and the people on it. Read the full report here: https://lnkd.in/eScK9uyy #postgrowth #sustainablefashion #overconsumption #fashion #textiles 📷  Madeleine Brunnmeier 

Every few years, something slams the brakes on business-as-usual. Then hits the accelerator. COVID did it. It turned five-year digital roadmaps into five-week survival plans. Then came the supply chain fallout. Every weakness in visibility, data, and flexibility was suddenly front-page news. Those events triggered a tidal wave of tech investment. Automation. Cloud. AI. MES. Data platforms. Progress born out of panic. And that’s the heart of 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐜’𝐬 𝐋𝐚𝐰. Technology moves at an exponential rate. Organizations evolve at a logarithmic one. That gap keeps growing until something big forces a reset. Not because companies want to change, but because they have no choice. The next big disruption is already loading. It might be AI regulation, sustainability mandates, or the collapse of old operating models under the weight of new data expectations. 𝐈𝐟 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐝𝐨 𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐝𝐢𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐥𝐲 𝐛𝐞𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐭 𝐡𝐢𝐭𝐬, 𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞’𝐬 𝐦𝐲 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞: Stop building technology roadmaps in a vacuum. Start building organizational readiness. That means investing in leadership alignment, communication cadence, employee training, and data literacy. It means mapping decision-making speed, defining clear ownership of digital initiatives, and stress-testing how fast your teams can pivot when priorities shift. Because when the next shock arrives, your tools won’t save you. Your ability to respond with clarity and confidence will. 𝐒𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞: https://lnkd.in/eP8bRaK4 ******************************************* • Visit www.jeffwinterinsights.com for access to all my content and to stay current on Industry 4.0 and other cool tech trends • Ring the 🔔 for notifications!

Public health reimbursement of cannabis flowers is under threat in Germany. Germany's FinanzKommission Gesundheit (FKG) — a government-appointed expert commission tasked with proposing reforms to stabilize the country's statutory health insurance system (GKV) — published its first report today. Among its 66 recommendations: remove dried cannabis flowers from the GKV reimbursement catalog (pages 294-296 of the PDF attached). Only extracts and approved finished medicines would remain covered. Flowers would stay where they already are for most patients — self-pay, via private prescription. Don't shoot the messenger, but the commission didn't stop at calling this a cost-cutting move. It classified the recommendation as Category A* — meaning it views the change as a care quality 𝘪𝘮𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵. Their rationale: weak clinical evidence, inconsistent dosing due to natural THC/CBD variability in flowers, and inhalation-related safety risks. The numbers behind the proposal: • The FKG puts GKV cannabis spending at ~€200M/year, with roughly half going to flowers • My own simple calculation from GKV's Q1–Q3 2025 data, annualized, puts it at ~€248M total and ~€128M for flowers — somewhat higher • Projected GKV savings if adopted: ~€130M in 2027, ~€180M by 2030, assuming a 10% substitution rate to reimbursable extracts On that last point: the €130M figure doesn't necessarily mean €130M demand destruction. Some of it would shift to GKV-reimbursed extracts; some patients who prefer flowers would simply keep buying them out of pocket. The net impact on patient access — and on market revenues — is more nuanced than the €130M figure implies. To put this in broader context: Germany's medical cannabis market was likely around €1 billion in 2025. The vast majority of that is already self-pay. This proposal would affect a meaningful slice of the reimbursed segment — significant, but not an existential threat to the overall market. This is one proposal among 66. The FKG's full package is now on Health Minister Nina Warken's desk. She has said a legislative process will begin promptly. Parliament decides. For context on why this matters beyond Germany: the GKV covers roughly 90% of the German population. When a formal government commission recommends removing a product from its reimbursement catalog — and frames it as a quality improvement — that framing tends to travel. That said, translating a recommendation into law requires legislative action, political will, and time. None of that is guaranteed.

🔥 Climate Change is Turning Insurance Into a Crisis—What Does This Mean for the Future? Imagine a world where owning a home in certain regions becomes nearly impossible—not because of the property value, but because no one will insure it. The The New York Times recently published a powerful article, "How the Climate Crisis Became an Insurance Crisis". It highlights how increasingly severe natural disasters—wildfires, hurricanes, floods—are forcing insurers to rethink their business models. 👉 Insurers are raising premiums, reducing coverage, or even exiting high-risk regions entirely. 👉 For homeowners and businesses, this creates a dire financial dilemma: live without insurance or move entirely. 👉 The ripple effects on communities and economies are massive, as the article outlines. But this is just the beginning. 📉 💡 Here’s My Take: The insurance industry isn’t just grappling with losses; it’s facing an existential challenge. 1️⃣ Risk Models Under Siege: Traditional approaches to assessing risk are breaking down as climate disasters defy predictability. Innovation is no longer optional—it’s a survival strategy. 2️⃣ A Growing Equity Gap: As insurance costs rise, vulnerable populations are disproportionately impacted. This crisis could widen economic divides, leaving some areas completely unprotected. 3️⃣ A New Mandate for Collaboration: Insurers, governments, and private enterprises must co-create solutions—whether through subsidies, resilience investments, or bold new public-private partnerships. 🌀 The Big Picture This crisis isn’t just about insurance—it’s about rethinking how industries adapt to a rapidly changing world. Will insurers lead the charge toward resilience, or will they retreat? 💬 What Do You Think? How can the industry innovate to stay ahead of these challenges? Are there examples of successful partnerships or strategies you’ve seen in action? #ClimateCrisis #InsuranceInnovation #RiskManagement #SustainabilityLeadership Full article here: https://lnkd.in/ei_2TBZX