Global Grain Market Trends

Global Rice Market at a Crossroads: Balancing Surpluses with Climate Shocks!! The global rice market in 2025 is displaying a paradox: record production and swelling stocks on one side, and sharp climate shocks on the other. India, now the world’s largest producer, is set to export 25 million tonnes this year—over 40% of global trade—while FCI stocks are reported at more than 53 million tonnes, nearly four times the buffer norm. Thailand and Vietnam continue to trim prices amid sluggish demand, while Pakistan readies for a 6 million tonne export season. Yet, this abundance collides with disruptive realities. The floods in Punjab (India and Pakistan) have damaged Basmati heartlands, threatening quality and exportable surplus of aromatic rice. At the same time, stringent pesticide residue bans in Punjab and Uttar Pradesh are already impacting consignments bound for Europe and the Gulf. The consequence: widening premiums for compliant, high-quality Basmati and volatile aromatic markets. For non-Basmati white rice, the story is different. Weak import demand from the Philippines, Indonesia scaling back tenders, and abundant Vietnamese and Thai supplies are pushing prices to multi-year lows (Thai 5% broken near $370/tonne; Vietnam 5% around $374/tonne). Even India’s 5% broken variety has softened, despite rupee appreciation. With FCI likely to offload up to 20 million tonnes, global white rice prices could see further downward pressure. Key bifurcation emerges: Aromatic rice (Basmati, Jasmine): Premiums are set to rise, supply tightened by floods and pesticide norms, with Middle East and EU buyers scrambling for compliant origins. White rice (non-Basmati): Ample supply, sluggish demand, and the shadow of Indian stock liquidation keep prices capped, creating buyer’s markets in Africa and Asia. 🔑 Takeaway: The global rice economy is being reshaped not just by bumper harvests but also by climate volatility and regulatory compliance pressures. Aromatic rice will remain bullish in the short run; white rice stays bearish to neutral. Traders and policymakers must navigate this two-track reality—balancing food security, farmer incomes, and export competitiveness in an increasingly volatile market.

The Pacific is sending a warning that every grain trader, food company, and agricultural policy maker needs to hear right now. As of this morning — June 11, 2026 — NOAA has confirmed that El Niño conditions are present and strengthening. ECMWF places 100% probability on a Super El Niño peaking this winter. The CPC gives a 63% chance of a Very Strong event (ONI ≥ 2.0°C) by November-January. This may be the most intense El Niño in the instrumental record. I have spent the past week building a production impact model — drawing on 65 years of national crop yield data, regression analysis against the Oceanic Niño Index, and literature-based coefficients for rice, palm oil, cotton, and sorghum — to estimate what this event means for world crop production. The headline numbers, at the historical mean of past Super El Niño events: 🌾 Wheat: −32 MMT across two marketing years. Australia takes the first hit in 2026/27. Russia's larger loss follows in 2027/28 — the sleeper story on the wheat forward curve. 🌾 Rice: −56 MMT in calendar year 2026. India, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines all exposed during the critical monsoon growing window. Rice is the most acute food security risk. 🌽 Corn: Net +17 MMT globally — but that masks a −8 MMT South Africa shock and +47 MMT U.S. gain. Regional food security in southern Africa is genuinely at risk. 🫘 Soybeans: +34 MMT. The Americas benefit. El Niño is structurally bullish for South American soybeans. 🌴 Palm Oil: −18 MMT crude palm oil equivalent — but this is a 2027/28 story, not 2026. The 6-9 month biological production lag means the forward curve may be underpricing the risk. The critical caveat every trader needs to internalize: production losses do not automatically equal price spikes. India holds grain reserves five times its mandatory buffer norm. Government export policy, buffer stocks, and cross-commodity substitution all mediate the link between the field and the futures screen. Full analysis — including the two-wave wheat problem, marketing year timing for all commodities, and the ±1 standard error production bounds — is available in my new report: 📄 Pacific Heat: What a Super El Niño Means for World Crops To receive a free copy, email me at tierney@agresource.com #Agriculture #Commodities #ElNino #GrainMarkets #RiceMarkets #SoybeanMarkets #WheatMarkets #PalmOil #FoodSecurity #AgResource

The end of the 2024/25 marketing year has brought some exciting news for U.S. Soy: preliminary data from the USDA Global Agricultural Trade System database (December 2025) shows we exported significantly more soy in 2024/25 than the previous year, even as lower global prices trimmed our total export value.     In fact, total exports of the U.S. soy complex reached 68.7 million metric tons, up 12.8% from last year, 2.95% above the 5-year average and 3% over the 10-year average, showing just how strong global demand for U.S. Soy remains.    The big story? Soybean meal and soybean oil.    ➡️ Soybean meal exports hit a record 16.3 MMT, up 13.9% year‑over‑year. 27% above the 5-year average and a whopping 34% over the 10-year average.    ➡️ Soybean oil shipments jumped 304% over last year (and a 70% and 34% increase over the 5-year and 10-year averages, respectively! For a total of 1.1 MMT - the highest in years - as global supply dynamics and sustainability policies opened new doors for U.S. suppliers.    While China is still our largest buyer, this year was a case study in action of shifting global markets and the importance of diversification. We’re seeing impressive growth for U.S. Soy complex (whole beans, soybean meal and soy oil combined) in places like Vietnam, Venezuela, Colombia, Bangladesh and Turkey – markets that are investing in new crush facilities, modern feed industries and protein production to meet local demand.     A few notable highlights:     🌱 Bangladesh saw a 52% increase in U.S. whole soybeans from the previous year, fueled by crush industry expansion.     🐓 Venezuela’s feed and poultry sectors helped boost imports. Growth in the poultry sector is supported by investments in infrastructure, technology, and genetics, with continued growth expected in 2026. Rising per capita consumption of chicken and eggs supports sustained feed demand in the market.    🚢 And India—the world’s largest importer of vegetable oil—saw U.S. soy oil exports climb as shifts in palm oil availability drove demand.    Whether driven by shifting oil markets, protein demand, or sustainability priorities, one thing is clear: U.S. Soy is growing its global footprint in more diverse, dynamic markets than ever before. The U.S. Soy Advantage - quality, reliability and sustainability equaling value - give us an edge, even when our competitors are priced lower.    #USSoy #SoyTrade #USExports #GlobalExports #USSoyAdvantage

Rice has been big news in the past 24 months: -- “Against the grain: Can Japan learn to love imported rice”(June 11, 2025) -- “Risotto crisis: The fight to save Italy’s beloved dish from extinction” (Feb 29, 2024) -- “Major disruptor: El Niño threatens the world’s rice supplies” (Sept 7, 2023) What’s going on? Rice feeds half the world on a daily basis. Asia dominates, with 90% grown in China, India & ASEAN nations. ~10% of rice is traded internationally, where US, Italy & Brazil make it into the top 10 exporters (by value). Yet rice is under pressure. It contributes 1.5% of global GHG emissions – almost as much as aviation – while suffering from climate disruption. Rice also has major water & nature impacts and negative health effects for farmers (from pesticide use) and consumers (from pesticide residue). Yields have plateaued since the mid-90s, raising food security concerns. Solutions are emerging. AWD (Alternate Wetting & Drying, managing water in rice fields to cut methane) and DSR (Direct Seeded Rice, mechanically seeding rice into dry fields) lower emissions up to 40-50% while reducing water use. New seed varietals, sustainable intensification, fertilizer & pesticide moderation and post-harvest loss management also contribute to more resilient rice – often with substantial benefits for farmers. Despite early promise, <5% of land for rice is cultivated using these practices. And <0.5% of globally traded rice follows a sustainable standard. Change is starting: 📌 Companies including Olam Agri, PepsiCo, Ebro Foods S.A, Bayer, UPL, DFI Retail Group, Kellanova, and Thai Wah Public Company Limited are working to increase purchases of sustainable, resilient rice 📌 Nations such as Vietnam & Thailand are putting in place robust programs to support rice sector transitions 📌 Funders like IFC, ADB & Temasek Foundation are contributing capital at scale 📌 Partner organisations like Grow Asia, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH, Sustainable Rice Platform (SRP) and International Rice Research Institute are leading programs to drive transition 3 things are needed to "10x" impact: 🥇 Breakthrough program design to bring together multiple stakeholders to support farmers holistically and improve livelihoods while producing rice which is affordable for offtakers and households (most of whom can't pay more for food). GCF Thai Rice is one example initiative underway 🥇 Commercial capital to join catalytic & concessionary funds in innovative blended facilities. IFACC Initiative in Brazil offers an inspiring example of what is possible 🥇 Clear demand signals from offtakers that low emissions, resilient rice at scale is what they’re looking for. WEF's First Movers Coalition for Food (https://lnkd.in/eMpiUP2Z) is supporting these voices When I was in Thailand two weeks ago, I saw the future in a field. I am convinced it can spread to many, many more.

You won't read about it in the news media, but China may have its own farm crisis brewing. Farms there are under pressure from several years of declining crop prices and high production expenses incurred by a growing cadre of "modern" scaled-up farms. As Fall harvest began in September, Chinese corn prices were down more than 20 percent from their peak values in 2022. Corn prices dropped during 2023, dropped during last year's harvest, then recovered during the winter months. Despite having cut back sharply on imports of corn, this year's market is soft and could see another slide in prices. China's November futures contract suggests corn prices could fall in the next two months as new corn comes on the market. On the other hand, this year's Fall harvest could be pinched by unusual heavy rains in northern provinces that are preventing harvesting equipment from accessing muddy or flooded fields. Officials are rushing drying equipment to the countryside to prevent wet grain from sprouting or molding and becoming unusable after it does get harvested. Wet fields will also delay planting of the winter wheat crop, possibly impacting next year's wheat supplies. China's just-completed wheat marketing season also saw stagnant prices at a level 20% below their 2022 peak. Authorities procured 13% of this year's wheat marketings at the floor price--the largest amount in years--to avert a decline in wheat prices. In another sign of weak prices, local officials were told last week to prepare to procure rice at floor prices as well. Then there's soybeans. China's agriculture minister recently cited a boost in soybean output as an achievement during the 2021-25 five-year plan. Farmers' expansion of soybean plantings has been underwhelming despite subsidies of $300 or more per acre. Production gains could be reversed by tumbling prices. Chinese soybean prices are down more than 25% from their 2022 peak and imports of soybeans are up to 105 million tons annually. Meanwhile, production costs are higher than expected for a growing cadre of scaled-up farming companies and cooperatives. Officials are counting on these scaled-up farms to consolidate fragmented plots, modernize farming and raise yields. But scaled-up farm operators complain that costs are bloated by rental payments paid to villagers to entice them to turn over their collectively owned land. These farms are also spending a lot on machinery and equipment which is subsidized but still requires considerable cash outlays. Sinking prices and rising costs make field crops unprofitable, prompting farmers to plant high-margin fruit trees, dig fish ponds, build greenhouses, or quit farming altogether. Details at https://lnkd.in/et4_bVPu

Dear ladies and gents, The Ukrainian grain season for 2024/25 may see a significant downturn in agro exports. Due to abnormal July heat, Ukrainian farmers are harvesting sunflower seeds earlier, potentially causing a 25-35% yield drop. The Odessa and Dnipro regions have reported yields of 0.79 tons per hectare, down from 2.17 tons last year. The global sunflower seed consumption and processing estimate was also reduced by USDA to 54.9 million tons and 50.8 million tons, respectively. Bulgaria, despite increased planting, lower yields are expected due to intense heat affecting plant development, seed size, and oil content. Bulgarian crushers are anticipating rising prices. In Moldova, maize crops are reported to be compromised at 70-100%, and sunflower crops in the south at 60-80%. Prices in Ukraine continue to rise, with CPT levels reaching $940-$950.Sunflower oil prices in Europe for October, November, and December loading have risen, with offers at $1085 PMT against bids of $1070 PMT. In Russia, the SFO export duty will remain zero in August. Refined SFO from Ukraine is still offered at $1000 FCA, with bottled oil prices growing to $1.08-$1.10 per liter. Rapeseed export prices in Ukraine are rising, with orders at 23000-23500 UAH/t (€485-€500/t) delivered to Black Sea ports. This is due to restrained sales and low yields, potentially reducing exports in the new season. Canola prices are rising due to weather concerns . PDN numbers remain stable, reflecting weather-driven market dynamics in Canada. Meanwhile, the current bid for rapeseed crude oil is between €830-€840 FCA for the EU market. In China, rapeseed oil bids have reached $1010. Soybean futures fell the most in a month as traders took profits and US weather forecasts improved. For Russia, ICAR expects a record soybean harvest this year at 7.5 million tons, with increased loads at oil extraction plants. Last year's processing volumes were 6.2 million tons, expected to exceed 6.4 million this year. The Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine predicts the soybean harvest in 2024/25 MY at 5 million tons . Palm oil stock is increasing, and logistic concerns are easing, which will likely lower freight costs from KL and Indonesia. This will widen the gap between palm and sunflower oil, making palm oil more attractive and increasing demand, which will support the price. – Market Outlook – The coming season, with increasing reports of bad weather, is becoming very risky and unpredictable. With fewer seeds, crushers will raise prices, and major players may try to dominate the Ukrainian market, as Ukrainian oil retains an advantage in EU due to Russian oil tariffs. Reduced vegetable oil production in the EU will make the Ukrainian market more oriented towards the EU and keep prices high. At the same time, the demand for vegetable oil is increasing globally, which is likely to support future prices. Thank you for your attention, and stay tuned in for the next update!

🇨🇳🌱 China is signaling a potentially major shift in global soybean demand dynamics. According to the latest outlook from China’s Ministry of Agriculture, soybean imports for the 2026/27 marketing year are projected at: 📦 95.5 million metric tons ➡️ a decline of 7.6% versus the previous year. If confirmed, this would represent one of the most important demand slowdowns in recent years for the global soybean market. 📌 The key driver? 🐖 Shrinking sow herds ⬇️ Lower soybean meal demand China explicitly linked the reduced import outlook to weakening feed demand from the pig sector. This matters enormously because China remains: 🌍 the world’s largest soybean importer 🌱 the central driver of global soybean trade flows 🐓🐖 the anchor market for feed protein demand Interestingly, the same report also highlights a short-term contradiction: 📈 For 2025/26, China actually increased its soybean import estimate to: ➡️ 103.3 million tons due to: ✔️ continued industrial pig farming ✔️ expanding poultry production ✔️ still-strong soybean meal consumption But the medium-term signal is becoming clearer: 🇨🇳 China appears increasingly cautious about future feed demand growth. At the same time: 🌽 Corn planting area in China is projected to rise by 0.4% because of stronger profitability, while: 🌱 soybean planting area is expected to decline by 0.6% due to weaker economic returns versus corn. 📍This development has major implications for global agriculture: 🇧🇷 Brazil’s export expansion strategy 🇺🇸 U.S. soybean export expectations ⚡ renewable diesel crush economics 🐖 global pork production 🐓 poultry feed demand 🌍 international protein markets The market may be entering a new phase where: ✔️ China remains dominant but ✔️ Chinese soybean demand growth is no longer guaranteed For exporters and feed industries worldwide, that changes the strategic equation significantly. #Soybeans #China #FeedIndustry #PorkProduction #Poultry #CommodityMarkets #Agribusiness #AnimalNutrition #Brazil #USAg #ProteinEconomy #GlobalTrade https://lnkd.in/dAi-GhDZ

2025 Australia wheat price update: the pricing outlook has improved due to a combination of extremely dry conditions in South Australia, strong grain demand from the feedlot sector, and expected strengthening of offshore demand. Incredibly dry conditions in South Australia (SA) are expected to keep the demand for feed elevated in SA, Victoria and southern New South Wales. SA farmers are increasingly reporting the need to shift livestock onto on-farm confined feeding and there are frequent reports of grain being trucked in from other states. The Chinese government placed 10% tariffs on US beef imports on 10 March. Furthermore, the Chinese government has not renewed recently expired US beef export licenses. US beef exports to China are primarily grainfed. In 2024, China imported 157,000 mt of beef from the US. The rerouting of Chinese grain-fed beef demand to Australia should strengthen the demand for cattle to be placed on feed. An additional factor supporting the demand for beef is a multi-year decline in the US cattle herd, and strong US beef demand. An 18% rise in US beef imports from all origins in 2024 has pushed up beef import prices in all major destination markets, including Japan and South Korea. The latest December 2024 Australian Lot Feeders’ Association figures shows a record 1.45m cattle on feed, an increase of 12%/yr. Feed grain demand in northern NSW and QLD is expected to remain elevated in 2025. In early March, the Chinese government implemented 15% tariffs on US wheat, corn and sorghum imports. In 2024, China imported 1.9mmt, 1.4mmt and 4.7mmt of wheat, corn and sorghum respectively from the US according to Comtrade. Chinese import demand is currently weak due to a combination of soft economic conditions and a large crop last year. However, we expect rerouting of remaining Chinese demand from the US to Australia to support local wheat and barley prices in 2025. We forecast wheat ending stocks in the seven largest export markets to decline from 56.6mmt in 2024/25 to 55.4mmt in 2025/26. The forecast decline is 1.12mmt/yr versus 0.7mmt/yr in our last update. Offshore price support is also coming from recent dry conditions in the US, Black Sea and Europe. The proportion of US winter wheat area under drought increased from 24% to 27% as of 11 March and compares to 14% at the same time last year. European total wheat production is forecast at 136.1mmt, up considerably on last year’s 121.3mmt. However, recent dryness is a rising concern. European prices are likely to move higher if limited rainfall is received over March and April. Lastly, the market is closely watching wheat flows into the Middle East. Last year ample supplies in countries including Türkiye and Iran resulted in lower imports. This year production prospects may reverse. Türkiye has announced on 20 March an easing of import quota restrictions. https://lnkd.in/gNQjhVNZ

According to FAO and The World Bank commodity outlooks, global rice supply in 2025–2026 is expanding faster than consumption, with world stocks projected to rise above 200 million tonnes, returning to pre-tightening levels. At the same time, major importing countries in #SoutheastAsia are rebuilding domestic buffers and reintroducing protective trade measures. This combination structurally caps price upside and increases volatility risk. 𝐀𝐯𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐨𝐧 𝐒𝐩𝐨𝐭𝐢𝐟𝐲: https://lnkd.in/grwfX_Ew #Vietnam’s 2025 export performance illustrates this shift clearly. Shipment volumes remained close to 8 million tonnes, yet average export prices declined by approximately 20%, and export revenues fell by nearly 28% year-on-year. The elasticity between volume and value has weakened, which directly compresses margins and raises working capital exposure across the trading cycle. From a strategic standpoint, this environment favors exporters that can reduce reliance on politically sensitive mass markets and increase exposure to segments with more stable demand functions. OECD agri-food trade analysis consistently shows that premium, specialty, and sustainability-certified rice commands price spreads of 15–35% over conventional grades, with materially lower price dispersion across cycles. Logistics and financing costs also become more decisive in oversupplied markets. World Bank Development Economics logistics benchmarks indicate that freight and port-related charges now account for more than 20% of CIF cost for many African and Middle Eastern routes, compared with around 12–14% before 2020. This structurally penalizes low-margin bulk shipments and strengthens the case for value-dense, quality-differentiated exports. For 2026, Vietnam’s competitive advantage will increasingly depend on three execution variables: the speed at which exporters can shift product mix, the discipline of contract structuring under volatile pricing, and the ability to meet tightening residue, traceability, and carbon-accounting requirements in premium markets such as the #EU, #Japan, and the #UnitedKingdom. The adjustment is demanding, but it is also constructive. #Vietnam has the agronomic capacity, processing scale, and market connectivity to reposition its rice sector from a volume-driven exporter to a higher-value agri-industrial platform. In a more saturated global market, this transition is what will protect profitability, not shipment growth. — 𝐅𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐰 𝐦𝐞: https://lnkd.in/gv_dQXAX 𝐌𝐞𝐤𝐨𝐧𝐠 𝐏𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐬: https://lnkd.in/gtNemjz7 #VietnamAgribusiness #RiceExports #FoodSecurity #AgriTrade #GlobalCommodities #SupplyChainRisk #AgriculturalEconomics #EmergingMarkets #VietnamEconomy #TradePolicy #ExportStrategy #SustainableAgriculture #MekongDelta #MekongPartners #MickaelDriol #VietnamToday