Regional Economic Development Strategies

Wars don’t just destroy nations. They expose how fragile our systems really are. Over the past few years, every global disruption, from conflicts to pandemics to supply shocks, has shown us one thing clearly: We have built a world that is highly efficient… but dangerously dependent. - Food travels thousands of kilometres before it reaches our plates. - Energy systems rely on distant, unstable sources. - Waste is exported, outsourced, and forgotten. And the moment something breaks somewhere in the world, everyone, everywhere, feels it. Maybe the question isn’t: How do we make global systems stronger? Maybe the question is: Why are we so dependent on them in the first place? And what if our cities, towns and villages could: • Grow more of their own food • Generate more of their own energy • Manage their own waste • Create and consume locally This isn’t about isolation. It’s about resilience. Because when systems are decentralised: • Communities recover faster • Livelihoods are created locally • Environmental impact reduces • And people regain a sense of ownership This is where sustainability meets survival. Decentralised production systems are not just a climate solution. They are a risk mitigation strategy for an uncertain world. The future isn’t global vs local. It’s global and local. In fact, its hyperlocal. But the balance has clearly tipped too far. If there’s one lesson from the world we’re witnessing today, it’s this: The strongest communities are the least dependent ones. Time to build local. Time to act resilient. Time to rethink how we produce, consume, and live. What do you think? #Decentralisation #Sustainability #Resilience #ClimateAction #LocalEconomies #CircularEconomy

Starting May 1, 2026, China will implement a zero-tariff policy on all products from 53 African nations with diplomatic ties (excluding Eswatini), significantly boosting market access for agricultural, mineral, and manufactured goods. This initiative aims to deepen trade relations, support industrialization, and diversify trade routes. This policy covers all products from 53 African nations, expanding upon previous duty-free access for 33 least-developed countries to include middle-income nations like South Africa. The initiative aims to boost exports of processed, value-added goods and stimulate investment in African manufacturing. China will further promote trade facilitation, such as upgrading its "green channel" for faster customs clearance and advancing trade agreements. The new policy strengthens China-Africa economic cooperation and offers African nations an alternative to higher tariffs elsewhere. It is expected to enhance trade capacity, though its success depends on overcoming non-tariff barriers, enhancing infrastructure, and fostering local industrialization. But will this deepen African productive capacity or simply accelerate raw material extraction under better branding? Trade policy alone does not create transformation. Strategy does. If this deal is to work for Africans, not just for the politicians announcing it, several things must happen: 1. Move beyond raw exports. Zero tariffs on cocoa beans or unprocessed minerals mean little if we are not exporting chocolate, batteries, and finished goods. Industrial policy must sit alongside trade policy. 2. Fix internal bottlenecks. Ports. Power. Rail. Customs efficiency within Africa. Non-tariff barriers between African countries often hurt us more than tariffs abroad. 3. Align with AfCFTA. This cannot become a substitute for intra-African trade. It should strengthen regional value chains, not fragment them. 4. Protect standards and leverage. African governments must negotiate from a position of long-term national interest, ensuring technology transfer, local job creation, and skills development. 5. Strengthen private sector capacity. SMEs and manufacturers need financing, quality certification support, and export readiness programs, otherwise only a handful of large players will benefit. Opportunity without strategy can become dependency. But opportunity with coordination, transparency, and industrial ambition? That is how continents rise. The real work now shifts from Beijing to African capitals and from political announcements to implementation discipline. #Africa #TradePolicy #Industrialization #AfCFTA #ChinaAfrica #EconomicTransformation

Economic geography almost never aligns with administrative boundaries. Councils, states and even national borders are useful governance constructs, but economies don't operate neatly within them. The OECD uses the concept of Functional Regions, defined by economic linkages such as commuting patterns, labour markets, supply chains and industry connections. Examples are everywhere. Greater Melbourne functions as a single labour market incorporating more than 30 local government areas. Albury–Wodonga is one economy split across two states. The Productivity Commission identifies 89 functional economic regions in Australia. None align with council or state boundaries. There are some big implications of this for economic development: 1. Strategies that assume local economies are closed systems don't align with how economic activity actually works. Economic activity routinely crosses boundaries, regardless of policy design. 2. Strong outcomes come from playing to comparative strengths within the functional region. Access to high-quality jobs across the region matters more than their precise location. 3. Assets outside formal boundaries still shape local prosperity. Universities, ports, hospitals, airports and major employers influence outcomes far beyond the jurisdictions they're located in. 4. Collaboration is not optional. Functional economies require coordination across councils, agencies and sometimes states. In Australia, this logic sits behind regional economic development strategies and bodies such as Regional Development Australia committees. Trust and partnership-building are core economic development capabilities. 5. Economic development is not a junior function. Working across functional regions requires senior-level leadership with the authority to coordinate across portfolios, organisations and jurisdictions. The mismatch between economic reality and administrative geography is structural. Economic development that ignores it tends to produce weak strategy and poor outcomes.

Developing Asia and the Pacific’s economic ascent is being severely tested. The conflict in the Middle East is disrupting trade and energy markets. For a region heavily reliant on imported energy, rising prices are feeding inflation and tightening financial conditions.    The impacts remain extremely uncertain and will depend on the duration and trajectory of the conflict. Our latest Asian Development Outlook estimates that growth could slow substantially in the case of a prolonged conflict or further escalation.    The policy response is crucial. Targeted, temporary support can protect vulnerable households and businesses without derailing fiscal health. Clear monetary policy is essential to keep inflation expectations in check. And in this fragile global landscape, deeper regional cooperation is needed more than ever. Strengthening energy connectivity, building more resilient supply chains, and streamlining trade will be critical to reducing vulnerability and unlocking new opportunities. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) strongly supports all such efforts. #ADO2026 sets out these priorities and offers insights to help the region navigate current uncertainty with confidence: https://lnkd.in/gFx9B77r

After reviewing more pitch decks these past few days, I see African fintech founders are still flogging the dead horse that is "banking the unbanked" as a lazy fundraising pitch. From Yaounde to Cape Town, it’s the same story, another mobile wallet, payments app, another promise to bring financial inclusion to the masses. Truth is: most Africans are not unbanked because they lack access; they’re unbanked because they lack income. A new app won’t change that. The Brutal Truth Lack of Disposable Income – People don’t need more fintech solutions; they need more money. Without increased economic productivity, most “financial inclusion” solutions remain useless. Broken Unit Economics – Many fintechs rely on unsustainable VC fueled growth, acquiring “users” who don’t generate revenue. Regulatory Capture & Infrastructure Gaps – Governments protect banks and telcos dominate mobile money. The real bottlenecks are systemic, not just about "access." Startups often underestimate how slow, expensive, and political it is to scale across markets. Real Problems & Better Solutions Income-Generating Fintech – Instead of just moving money, fintech should help people make money. Platforms enabling gig work, SME financing, and export-focused businesses can drive real financial inclusion. A fintech that helps informal traders access larger markets, rather than just helping them "save." Decentralized Credit & Alternative Lending – Traditional credit models don’t work in Africa. Instead: Use supply chain data, mobile behavior, and transaction flows to build more dynamic credit models. Integrate fintech into cooperative lending structures like tontines or village savings groups, where trust already exists. B2B Payments & Trade Infrastructure – Cross-border trade needs work, killing SME growth. Fix it: Build better escrow and invoice financing tools that help African businesses transact across borders securely. Verticalized Fintech in High-Impact Sectors – Fintech should power real economic activity, not just payments. Agritech fintech: Give farmers access to dynamic pricing, supply chain finance, and better insurance. Healthcare fintech: Enable embedded payments and credit for medical services, helping people afford care without predatory loans. Logistics fintech: Provide financing for truckers, warehousing solutions, and real-time supply chain support. Infrastructure-First Fintech – If power, internet, & ID verification are problems, solve those first. Payments without stable connectivity? Build USSD-based financial services. Weak credit infrastructure? Build platforms that help lenders pool risk and share credit data across borders. The era of cheap fundraising gimmicks is over. African fintech must shift from vanity metrics to real impact, solving income generation, trade inefficiencies, and credit access at scale. I'm tired of saying this, founders who build with these in mind won’t need to beg for funding; investors will come looking for them.

Foxconn’s semiconductor push in Uttar Pradesh is being seen by many as a factory announcement, but it’s actually much more than that. When global technology players choose a region, they’re not just evaluating land parcels or incentives. They’re assessing whether the ecosystem is ready in terms of infrastructure, policy clarity, talent availability, connectivity, and the ability to execute at global quality standards. The HCL–Foxconn OSAT unit coming up in Jewar reflects that readiness. It signals a shift in how Uttar Pradesh is positioning itself, from purely industrial execution to enabling deep-tech capabilities. This move goes beyond job creation and points toward the creation of skills corridors, innovation capacity, and long-term technological depth. What makes this moment important is the underlying belief it validates that world-class tech ecosystems don’t always emerge organically in a few legacy hubs. They can be intentionally designed through the right mix of policy, infrastructure, and institutional support. That’s a powerful idea for any region looking to move up the value chain. As this momentum builds, the next phase will be crucial. Strengthening talent and skilling pipelines, encouraging R&D partnerships, enabling startup participation, and maintaining strong quality and standards frameworks will determine how durable this ecosystem becomes. Deep tech isn’t just a buzzword here; it’s a strategic lever for growth. Uttar Pradesh’s trajectory is starting to show how thoughtful policy can translate into technology-led economic transformation not overnight, but in a way that compounds over time. #SiliconSwaraj  #AI_Pradesh #TechUPgrade

As little as twenty centimetres of water can disable a secondary substation, cutting power to businesses that may be nowhere near the flood itself. Across the UK, our GPAP analysis has identified more than 27,000 businesses exposed to power loss from substation flooding, with potential economic losses of up to £90 million per day. This hidden exposure is one of the issues brought into view by the Green Finance Institute's important new report, Developing Regional Economic Resilience through Nature-based Solutions: Building Business Demand. Its central argument is right. The principal constraint on investment in Nature is not a shortage of capital, but weak and inconsistent demand for the resilience that healthier natural systems provide. Businesses face growing exposure to flooding, drought, declining water quality and infrastructure disruption. The combined effects of climate change and nature loss could reduce UK GDP by as much as 8% over the next decade, yet many businesses still cannot quantify what these risks mean for their assets, revenues and operating costs. That matters because capital can only flow at scale when predictable revenues underpin projects, and those revenues depend on businesses understanding both the cost of inaction and the financial value of greater resilience. The report sets out the practical changes needed: better risk data, stronger regulatory drivers, greater use of infrastructure capital budgets and regional models that aggregate demand from several beneficiaries. When the upper reaches of a river catchment are restored, water can be slowed, stored and cleaned before it reaches businesses, homes and critical infrastructure downstream. Utilities, transport operators, local authorities and businesses can all benefit, allowing the cost to be shared. By measuring those benefits and structuring long-term payments around verified delivery, several beneficiaries can support a single landscape-scale investment. That improves project economics, diversifies revenues and makes restoration investable. A huge well done to Phoebe Cox, Charlie Dixon, James McKinney, William Butler and the wider Green Finance Institute team for producing a report that moves beyond aspiration into practical implementation, and thank you to the many organisations helping to build this market. The risk is already material. The task now is to turn these mechanisms into business demand, contracted revenues and investable pipelines capable of restoring UK landscapes at scale. Read the report here: https://lnkd.in/dQkSJPA7 #NatureFinance #ClimateRisk #NatureBasedSolutions #GreenFinanceInstitute

𝐀𝐝𝐚𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐨 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞: 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐈 𝐋𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐯𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐏𝐨𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐆𝐞𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐲 Spending time in Warsaw and Hamburg with Goran Barić gave me a firsthand look at how our clients are responding to challenges and seizing new opportunities.   While Poland and Germany are undergoing different phases of change, they both highlight key trends currently shaping the future of work in Europe.   Here are my three takeaways:   𝟏. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐓𝐚𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐞   The competition for talent is intensifying. Poland has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the EU, yet its workforce is shrinking by around 100,000 people annually. To stay ahead, businesses are doubling down on talent retention, investing in upskilling, and navigating evolving regulations to future-proof their workforce.   Germany faces its own talent shortage, particularly in engineering, technology, and manufacturing. With an aging workforce and shifting skill demands, the need for reskilling has never been more urgent. Companies that take a strategic, long-term approach to workforce development will be best positioned for sustainable success.   𝟐. 𝐃𝐢𝐠𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐬𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐀𝐮𝐭𝐨𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧   Germany is accelerating its adoption of AI, automation, and digital infrastructure, driving efficiency and innovation across most sectors. But technology alone isn’t the answer – when combined with a workforce that is skilled and ready to evolve alongside it, it becomes a true competitive advantage.   Meanwhile, Poland continues to attract global investment as a hub for IT and service centres. With its strong tech talent and cost-efficient labour market, businesses that integrate digital strategies alongside talent development will gain a real competitive edge.   𝟑. 𝐀𝐠𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐢𝐬 𝐚 𝐃𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐅𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫   Regardless of location, one thing is clear: adaptability is key. Businesses that take a proactive approach to shifting workforce dynamics, digital transformation, and evolving regulations are setting themselves up for long-term success.   Whether it’s addressing demographic shifts in Poland, reskilling workforces in Germany, or integrating AI across their operations, organisations that anticipate and prepare for what’s next – not just react – will be best placed to thrive.   A big thank you to our clients, colleagues, and partners in Warsaw and Hamburg for the valuable discussions, interesting perspectives, and warm hospitality. There are exciting times ahead, and I look forward to what’s next!

🛫 Asia’s travel boom is a tipping point - and a test. Tourism in APAC is a US$3T engine (10% of GDP), supporting 185M jobs and welcoming 650M visitors. But growth without design can concentrate benefits in a few hotspots, strain infrastructure, price out locals, and trigger boom–bust cycles. Given tourism’s weight in our economies, we must build now so its benefits are lasting and widely shared.   This week, I spoke about the future of tourism at the Singapore Hotel Association's Hospitality Exchange 2025. Here are some of the thoughts I shared on what this “building” should look like:   🔍 Move beyond headcounts: Today, anonymized spend data can reveal where visitors go, how they move, and what they value. These insights help destinations anticipate demand, guide flows, and protect fragile sites before congestion hits.   🌐 Reimagine travel hubs as launchpads: Not just arrival points, but orchestrators of regional tourism, connecting visitors to lesser-known destinations and easing pressure on city centers and mainstream attractions.    🚆Build layered connectivity: Invest in and integrate hard infrastructure like airports with regional flight connectivity, high-speed rail, and room capacity, with soft infrastructure like digital readiness in the form of interoperable payment 💳 and transit systems to enable seamless journeys for tourists and locals alike.   🤖 Activate AI agents: Shift from search to end-to-end curation—connecting travelers with authentic, purpose-driven experiences, enabling seamless navigation, and dynamically managing visitor flows. It’s the new paradigm for smarter, more sustainable tourism.   The goal: tourism that enriches communities, preserves culture, and strengthens local economies. More than riding the wave, this is how Asia can define the next era of global travel.

What drives African economies is not development; it is quick money. This is one of the reasons why discourse about the need for Africa to integrate the global economy is pointless as long as integration is approached without the institutional capabilities and industrial visions required to shape value chains rather than be shaped by them. Liquidity politics is a system in which the speed of money matters more than the structure of value. Across the continent, the architecture of economic decision-making is shaped less by long-term national plans than by the need to maintain political coalitions, to respond to fiscal pressures, and to stabilize loyalties in real time. To pursue development, you need a strategy, you need to sequence, and you need institutional patience. But liquidity politics rewards actors who can release funds quickly, distribute opportunities immediately, and convert resources into political credit without delay. This dynamic is visible in every major sector, but it becomes even more evident when we look at public finance. In many African countries, it is cash flow that matters in negotiation and not an economic vision. Most governments prioritise sectors that generate instant liquidity. At the end we have: consumption growing faster than production, tariffs adjusted to fill revenue gaps rather than build industries, and infrastructure projects that are shaped by short-term fiscal needs and not long-term planning. Long-term investments in industrial policy, research, irrigation systems, or energy grids carry costs today and benefits years later, but fragmented administrations often struggle to protect these investments across political cycles. The system is not malfunctioning; it is responding to the incentives that shape survival. Colonial history laid the foundations for this structure by embedding extraction into administrative design, and the structural adjustment programmes of the 1980s reinforced it by dismantling state institutions and preventing coordinated industrial policy, agricultural boards, and national development planning. As a result, we have economies that evolve around what can be monetised quickly, not around what can transform and positively impact economy on the middle and long-term. African countries do not lack ambition, nor do they lack resources. What they lack is the institutional environment that rewards durability over immediacy, coordination over fragmentation, and strategic accumulation over the perpetual search for short-term liquidity. The challenge is not simply to grow the economy but to redesign the incentives that govern it.