Sectoral Growth Rates

Saudi Arabia's Economy Expands by 3.9% in Q2 2025 — Private Sector Leads the Way Saudi Arabia’s real GDP grew by 3.9% in Q2 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 — the strongest quarterly expansion in two years. This performance reflects the resilience of the Kingdom’s economy, supported by the adoption of the chained volume methodology, which offers a more dynamic and accurate view of real economic growth. 🔸 Growth by sector ▪️ The non-oil sector expanded by 3.9%, confirming its pivotal role in driving sustainable growth. ▪️ The private sector surged by 4.6%, outperforming forecasts and signaling healthy business momentum. ▪️ Government activity rose by 1.6%, in line with fiscal discipline and structural efficiency. ▪️ The oil sector recorded a 3.8% increase in real terms, despite a sharp 16.7% drop in nominal value, reflecting steady production amid weaker prices. 🔸 Real vs. nominal divergence ▪️ While real GDP rose, nominal GDP declined by 0.5%, driven by lower oil revenue at current prices. ▪️ Net taxes on products increased by 7.5%, partially cushioning the nominal decline. 🔸 Longer-term context ▪️ Since 2018, quarterly GDP figures have fluctuated widely due to global disruptions — but recent trends show a return to stability. ▪️ Unlike previous years, the growth is now largely domestic, fueled by diversified sectors rather than oil exports alone. 🔸 Strategic insight ▪️ The numbers confirm that Saudi Arabia’s economic transformation is working — diversification is not aspirational; it’s measurable. ▪️ With strong private-sector momentum, the economy is better positioned to absorb external shocks and attract strategic capital. ▪️ The non-inflationary nature of this growth opens room for policy flexibility without compromising financial stability. #SaudiArabia #GDPGrowth #SaudiEconomy #PrivateSector #Vision2030 #EconomicDiversification #OilMarket #ChainedGDP #Macroeconomics #GCCMarkets #EconomicPolicy

UK growth slowed last quarter — but what that means for business is more revealing than the headlines. =Q2 GDP: +0.3% That’s less than half the growth we saw in Q1 (0.7%). Still — it’s a better outcome than many feared. But we need to dig deeper than the topline. Because what’s happening underneath the surface shows where things are heading next. The economy is splitting in two Winners: - Computer programming & consultancy: +4.1% - Pharmaceuticals: +7.0% - Construction: +1.2%, powered by infrastructure and housing repairs Losers: - Energy supply: -6.8% - Wholesale & retail: -0.9% - Production: -0.3% The services sector — the backbone of the economy — is keeping things afloat. But energy, manufacturing, and wholesale are dragging behind. On paper, the economy grew. But GDP per person only rose 0.2%. Inflation has cooled, but wages haven’t surged. Business investment remains cautious. Consumer confidence is fragile. For most households and small businesses, it still feels like we’re stuck in first gear. These figures will shape what’s possible in the Autumn Budget: Tax cuts? Limited headroom. Public investment? Under pressure. Wage policies? Tied to fragile productivity. Interest rates? Still uncertain. Chancellor Rachel Reeves calls it a “strong start.” Critics say it’s a mirage propped up by spending and optimism. Either way — the decisions being made right now are laying the foundation for the next 2–3 years of UK economic strategy. So what does this mean for business? We’re not heading into a crisis. But we’re also not heading into a boom. We’re entering an era of low-growth normal. And in a low-growth environment, the game changes: You can’t rely on market momentum to lift you Margins get squeezed faster Growth comes from internal performance, not external tailwinds Strategic agility and customer insight become your competitive edge This is the season where companies either: Consolidate and prepare Or find ways to manufacture their own momentum If the economy won’t grow for you — how will you grow anyway? Because the businesses that win now won’t be the biggest or loudest. They’ll be the ones who: Find overlooked opportunities Move faster than policy And double down when others stall Where are you placing your bet for the next 6 months? https://lnkd.in/eudpZDcq

Following the release of Egypt’s real GDP figures on Thursday, the economy delivered an exceptionally strong performance, recording 5.3% real GDP growth in the first quarter of FY2025/2026, up from 3.5% in the corresponding period last year and marking the strongest quarterly rate in over three years — the highest since Q1-2022. On the supply side, the improvement was driven by a solid rebound across several tradable sectors—most notably non-oil manufacturing, information and communications technology (ICT), and tourism. Activity in the Suez Canal also registered positive growth for the first time since Q2 FY2023/2024, reflecting a gradual recovery in transit flows. - Non-oil manufacturing expanded by 14.5%, supported by robust growth in motor vehicles (+50%), chemicals (+44%), beverages (+37%), and furniture (+34%). - The ICT sector grew by 14.5%, while financial intermediation increased by 10.2%. - The tourism sector posted growth of 13.8%, with approximately 5.1 million visitors during the quarter. - Suez Canal activity rose 8.6%, reversing several quarters of contraction since the Red Sea disruptions began. In contrast, the extractive industries contracted by 5.3%, driven by a 6.6% decline in petroleum output and a 10.9% drop in natural gas production. Given this stronger-than-expected performance, we have revised our GDP growth forecast for FY2025/2026 upward to 4.9%, from 4.6% previously—implying a 0.5 percentage-point improvement over the actual FY2024/2025 outturn of 4.4%. The balance of risks to this projection remains tilted to the upside, particularly if the recovery in Suez Canal activity gains momentum. In our baseline scenario, Suez Canal revenues are expected to rebound to USD 4.6 billion in FY2025/2026 (+25.9% YoY), supported by the gradual return of major container lines, although total traffic is likely to remain below pre-crisis levels. A more substantial rebound is anticipated in FY2026/2027, with revenues projected to reach USD 8.3 billion (+83.2% YoY), contingent on freight rates normalizing, insurance costs easing, and secure passage being fully restored along the Red Sea corridor. Tourism also represents a significant upside factor, with an additional boost expected as international arrivals continue to rise—supported by the long-anticipated opening of the Grand Egyptian Museum and increasing sectoral investment aimed at expanding hotel capacity and constructing additional rooms. On the demand side, a more favorable interest rate environment and easing inflation are expected to support a stronger contribution from private consumption and private investment, helping to underpin the next phase of economic growth. Authorities have indicated that preliminary indicators point to a favorable growth outlook for FY2025/2026, with expectations that GDP growth will be no less than 5% up from a previous target of 4.5%. We believe this target is achievable, and under an upside-risk scenario, growth could surpass this level.

Cap Rate Stabilization in 2025: Sector-by-Sector Breakdown After several quarters of volatility, cap rates across U.S. commercial real estate sectors are showing signs of gradual stabilization and even modest compression in 2025. Here’s what the data shows: Sector Trends (as of mid-2025): → Industrial: Cap rates have compressed approximately 30 basis points year-over-year. Strong tenant demand and logistics expansion continue to support valuations. → Retail: Down 24 bps on average. Investor confidence has returned in essential retail and well-located strip centers, especially in growth markets. → Multifamily: Cap rates are down ~17 bps, driven by rent growth in constrained markets. The average going-in cap rate is 4.83%, with stabilized exit cap rates around 5.00%. → Office: Compression is modest (~7 bps), and only in top-tier, Class A properties. Broader office valuations remain pressured due to hybrid work and elevated vacancy. Contextual Drivers: → Treasury yields remain elevated, but risk premiums have begun narrowing in stabilized asset classes. → Investor demand is strengthening in sectors with favorable rent fundamentals and supply constraints, notably multifamily and industrial. → Cap rate movement is not uniform—secondary and tertiary markets remain bifurcated depending on asset class and local economic drivers. Conclusion: Cap rate compression is returning selectively in 2025—but underwriting remains critical. Investors are actively repositioning portfolios toward assets with durable income, low volatility, and long-term rent resilience. What are you seeing in your market? Are cap rates holding or compressing? What metrics are you most focused on—and are you currently looking for capital, acquisitions, or new financing partners? #CapRates #CommercialRealEstate #CRETrends #MultifamilyInvesting #IndustrialRealEstate #RetailRealEstate #OfficeMarket #RealEstateInvesting #CapitalMarkets #CREInvesting  

Q1FY26 Corporate results: Capex driven sectors did better than consumption • We analyzed Q1FY26 quarterly performance of ~3000 listed companies across manufacturing and services sectors. Our analysis shows that sample companies’ revenue growth fell to 7-quarter low of 3.4% YoY, down from 5.1% in Q4FY25 and 6.8% YoY in Q1FY25 • Manufacturing sector’s revenue growth fell to 2.8% in Q1FY26 vs 5.7% in Q1FY25, driven by commodity sectors (refineries, OMCs and exploration, fertilizers) given lower commodity prices. Service sector’s revenue growth halved (5.8% in Q1FY26 from 11.3% in Q1FY25) due to revenue deceleration in trade, transport and real estate (early onset of monsoon, lower real estate sales) • However, expenditure growth too fell to 7-quarter low of 2.4% YoY due to sharply lower raw material costs. Slower growth in expenditure along with higher other income bolstered PAT • Capex related sectors (steel, cement, infra firms) benefitted from front-loading of government capex. Consumption sectors (FMCG, QSR restaurants, automobiles) continued to witness demand pressures due to weak urban demand • IT sector continued to face headwinds. For real estate, revenue growth was supported by rising share of premium segment, even as volume sales were lower • Although policy support and proposed GST rejig bodes well for domestic demand in H2, outlook for export-oriented sectors such as textiles is weak due to US tariffs • Even as higher profitability of the refinery sector should support GVA growth, subdued performance of consumption sectors may partially offset the upside

A quarterly update from NielsenIQ states that - 🔹Consumer goods sales grew 11 % YoY by value sales in Q4’25, up from 6.5% growth in Q4’24, driven by a 5.6% increase in prices. 🔹Volume growth, or the number of units sold, slowed to 5.1% compared to 6.1% in the year-ago quarter. 🔹Rural markets, which contribute over one-third of overall consumer goods sales in India, grew 8.4% YoY by volume (down from 9.2% in the previous quarter) compared to 2.6% growth in urban India (down from 4.2%). 🔹This was attributed to slower growth to consumers cutting back discretionary spending amid inflation. 🔹Volume growth is slowing across categories, and non-food segments are still outpacing food. 🔹Manufacturers with annual turnover of less than ₹100 Cr grew 11.9% by volumes (17.8% in value terms) in the March quarter, while companies with a turnover between ₹100 - ₹1,000 Cr reported volume growth of 6.4% (14.6% value) in the quarter. The larger players and the giants with turnover more than ₹5000 Cr saw a volume growth of 5.3% and 1.6% (6.4% by value) respectively. The smaller players grew faster, gaining ground due to a low base, rural growth and changing market dynamics. 🔹Most companies expect urban demand to revive over the next four-six quarters. 🔹Consumption of food slowed to 4.9% in the March quarter, compared to 6% in the previous December quarter, on account of decreased volumes in staple categories such as edible oils and palm oil which saw price increases. 🔹The home and personal care category saw a consumption growth of 5.7% compared to 7.3% in the December quarter, with higher demand in rural areas. 🔹The over-the-counter category, such as rubefacients and analgesics, saw a 14% sales growth in the March quarter, led by a 10.4% increase in prices. 🔹In terms of retail channels, NielsenIQ said, e-commerce continued to strengthen its presence significantly in 8 metros, impacting the share of offline channels – both MT (share 22.8%) & Trad trade (share 62.5%). The increase is driven by increasing online shopper penetration, more purchase occasions, and increasing basket sizes. 🔹The growth of e-commerce in metro cities, which is up 39.9%, is primarily volume-driven, outpacing traditional trade’s 2.2% dip and modern trade’s 7.7% decline. This is driven by higher online shopper penetration, more purchase occasions, and larger basket sizes. While NielsenIQ tracks data based on company sales to retail channels, Kantar Worldpanel tracks data based on household sales - 🔸They said FMCG volume sales growth in the Q4’25 was 3.5%, slowest since Q4’23. 🔸A year ago, the market had grown by 5.5% during the same quarter. 🔸Rural markets rose 2.7%, lower than the 6.3% a year ago. 🔸Urban markets growth was 4.4%, same as LY. 🔸At the household level, urban areas are driving growth where smaller local brands are outperforming bigger brands. Sources : The Economic Times, Business Standard, NDTV Profit #fmcg #retail #India #growthstory

The productivity acceleration is real. Private-sector labor productivity growth has nearly doubled, from 1.2% annualized in 2013–2019 to 2.25% in 2022–2025. No sign of slowdown in 2025, and early 2026 job growth points to continued flat employment outside healthcare and social services. This looks structural, not cyclical. But the aggregate buries the real story. Three technology-exposed groups — finance, information, and professional services (the FIIPB complex), plus retail trade and advanced manufacturing — are posting 3.2% to 3.9% annualized productivity growth. The rest of the private economy: 0.1%. A Tang-Wang decomposition of each sector's contribution to aggregate growth makes the split unmistakable: → FIIPB's combined within-industry contribution roughly doubled, from 0.78 pp per year in 2013–2019 to 1.50 pp in 2019–2025. Advanced manufacturing quadrupled from a low base. Retail spiked to 0.59 pp in the most recent three-year window. → "All other" — the majority of the private economy — went from 0.28 pp to roughly zero. One detail worth noticing: the reallocation effect (the hatched bar) has been consistently negative, recently hitting -0.31 pp. Hours keep shifting toward lower-productivity sectors, mainly education and healthcare. This is the clearest signal yet that the post-2019 acceleration is technology based, and isn't going to fade. More in this week's Labor Matters. #AI #productivity #Labormarkets #careers #futureofwork #tech

India's Economic Outlook for FY25 (recently released) GDP Growth Forecast   - Expected real GDP growth: 6.4% (slowest since the pandemic years).     - Nominal GDP growth: 9.7%, slightly higher than FY24's 9.6%.    - Finance Ministry's projection: 6.5%; RBI's projection: 6.6%. Factors Supporting Growth   - Rural consumption, government investment, strong services exports.    - Robust performance in agriculture, construction, and real estate sectors.  Challenges to Growth     - Persistent inflation, weak urban consumption, sluggish private investments.     - Slowdown in manufacturing activity.  Government Spending & Investment     - Government final consumption expenditure (GFCE) expected to rise 4.1% in FY25 (up from 2.5% in FY24).     - Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), a proxy for investments, to grow 6.4%, down from 9% in FY24.  Sectoral Highlights     - Manufacturing: Growth expected to slow to 5.3% (from 9.9% in FY24).     - Construction: Growth forecast at 8.6%, down from 9.9%.    - Agriculture: Expected to grow 3.8%, a marked improvement from 1.4% in FY24 due to favourable rainfall.  Private Consumption     - Private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) expected to rise 7.3%, higher than 4% in FY24.     - Urban consumption faces challenges from high inflation and slowing credit growth.  Trade Deficit     - Expected to decline to ₹1.09 trillion in FY25 (from ₹3.99 trillion in FY24).     - Net exports remain a drag on growth due to consistent negative performance.  Quarterly Trends     - Slow growth in Q2 FY25 (5.4%) attributed to reduced government spending during elections and weak urban markets.     - Economy expected to rebound in the second half of the fiscal year.  Economic Size     - Real GDP projected at ₹184.88 trillion in FY25 (up from ₹173.82 trillion in FY24).  This summary highlights the mixed outlook for India’s economy in FY25.

UK economy grows by 0.4% in May - Official figure doubles economists’ forecast and follows zero growth in April The British economy expanded 0.4% month-over-month in May 2024 after stalling in April and beating forecasts of a 0.2% increase. The Sterling rose 0.1% against the dollar to $1.2857 as the figures brought the UK’s annual gross domestic product growth to 1.4%, higher than the 1.2% economists had forecast. “Many retailers and wholesalers had a good month, with both bouncing back from a weak April. Construction grew at its fastest rate in almost a year after recent weakness, with house building and infrastructure projects boosting the industry”, said Liz McKeown, Office for National Statistics director of economic statistics. The services sector grew 0.3%, the same as in April, and was the largest contributor to growth, namely retail trade, except for motor vehicles and motorcycles industry (2.9%); and professional, scientific and technical activities (1%). Industrial production rose 0.2%, rebounding from a 0.9% drop in April, mostly driven by manufacturing (0.4%), with production of food products, beverages and tobacco rising 1.7%. Meanwhile, construction output expanded by 1.9%, recovering from a 1.1% fall in April, with both new work (2.7%) and repair and maintenance (0.8%) increasing. #UK #UKEconomy #GDP #Labour