IPO Market Conditions in EMEA

‘Tis the season for year-end reviews and market outlooks, and the capital markets have certainly given us a lot to reflect on. 2025 began with early optimism; it pivoted to tariff shocks and spiking, then receding volatility; a US government shutdown accompanied Q4; and we saw a steady repricing of the AI narrative throughout the year. What stands out is, despite that backdrop, activity has been resilient across products, and the set up looks very constructive for 2026. 🔹 Equity and equity-linked: pipelines are building, with regional divergence. Global ECM volumes were modestly higher YoY, with IPOs taking a greater share of activity—a sign of underlying strength. The US continues to lead, but we’re seeing more consistent dialogue and tangible pipelines into 2026 across EMEA, particularly in the Nordics, Middle East, and UK. In Europe, defense related IPOs are a key theme, while AI-driven ECM remains more concentrated in the US but remains a major global theme but investors are discriminating: they are rewarding durable growth, margins and cashflows, not just narratives. Convertibles issuance also saw a marked resurgence this year. In 2026, defense, industrials, tech, power and selected business services names are likely to feature in the next wave of issuance. 🔹 Debt markets: robust conditions for investment grade. Persistent inflows into IG funds and spreads near historic tights have created one of the most favorable funding environments in years. Treasurers have used this window to prefund, refinance early and de-risk M&A. At the same time, going into 2026, they are very aware that geopolitics or underwhelming economic data could shift the tone quickly—which keeps the focus firmly on taking advantage of opportunities that present themselves in H1 2026. 🔹 Leveraged finance: eventful but finishing the year largely constructive. 2025 brought mini-cycles – repricings, dividend recaps, brief shutdowns – but also successful execution on sizeable LBOs and a steady clearing of maturity walls. As we move into 2026, investors, while still discerning, feel constructive and expect more balanced supply (corporate carve-outs, P2Ps, cross-border M&A) and continued innovation in structures supporting larger, more complex deals. Taken together, this points to a 2026 that feels more opportunity-led than risk-led. With rates on a downward trajectory, spreads tight, corporate balance sheets generally healthy and pipelines rebuilding across ECM, DCM and LevFin, we expect activity to broaden, both by sector and by geography. While there will still likely be periods of disruption—e.g. another potential US government shutdown in Q1—issuers who engage early, prepare thoroughly and move decisively are likely to be the ones who set the pace next year.

From Jan 2025 to today: the US completed ~26 biotech IPOs. China completed ~16 — all pre-revenue. Europe completed one. Biotech companies don't go public for prestige. They go public because drug development is extraordinarily expensive — Phase III trials routinely cost hundreds of millions of dollars — and public markets are how companies access the capital scale required to get there. An IPO is also the primary mechanism through which early investors exit, recycling capital back into the next generation of startups. 𝗨𝗦: 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗼𝗳 𝗿𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗱 11 biotechs IPO'd in all of 2025 — the lowest in 15 years. The bar moved hard: Phase II/III data is now the de facto minimum to list. 2026 is a genuine reopening — Kailera's $718M debut, Generate's $400M, Eikon's $380M. But selective. Every company that got out had late-stage data and institutional backing. The market rewards proof, not promise. 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗮: 𝗰𝗮𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗺𝗲𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗼𝘃𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿, 𝗯𝘆 𝗱𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻 ~16 biotech IPOs on HKEX under Chapter 18A. All pre-revenue. HK$50B raised in 2025 alone — versus four listings in all of 2024. Chapter 18A was purpose-built: pre-revenue biotechs access public capital after Phase I. The listed cohort became the asset pool global pharma raided to fill its patent cliff gap. In 2025, Chinese biopharma closed 157 out-licensing deals worth $135B. Their share of global innovative drug licensing value: ~48%. Capital engine and innovation engine compounding each other. 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲: 𝗻𝗼 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁, 𝗻𝗼 𝗲𝘀𝗰𝗮𝗽𝗲 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘃𝗲 The UK logged 11 consecutive quarters without a biotech IPO. France, Germany, the Nordics, Benelux: zero across 16 months. Switzerland produced one. The EU's €5B Scaleup Europe Fund — managed by EQT Life Sciences— is a necessary response. But growth capital and exit infrastructure are different problems. If the European IPO market stays structurally closed, every biotech the fund backs exits via acquisition — most likely to a US or Asian buyer. European public money funds the growth. Non-European acquirers capture the value. Without a listing mechanism that matches Chapter 18A or Nasdaq's small-cap market, the fund doesn't build a European biotech industry. It curates the acquisition pipeline for everyone else. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁 Three capital systems. Three experiments in how drug development gets funded. The US rewards companies that survive long enough to prove themselves. China is building a listed cohort that global pharma now treats as its primary acquisition and licensing pipeline. Europe is funding innovation with public money and handing the exit — and the value — to whoever has a functioning public market. The commercialization gap doesn't start at regulatory approval. It starts when a promising asset can't access the capital it needs — and it's decided, finally, by who controls the exit.

The headline that caught my eye this week was "Listings Pipeline Puts Ailing European IPOs to the Test in Coming Months." European capital markets are at an important moment. After years of limited volumes, postponed listings and market uncertainty, a cluster of substantial IPOs will test whether recent optimism is justified or premature. The dual-track approach — simultaneously preparing for IPO and private sale — has become the benchmark for best practice in the majority of these processes, reflecting continued uncertainty about execution risk and markets. The pipeline of potential IPO opportunities for this autumn — and going into Q1 next year — thus represents a critical inflection point. Success could unlock pent-up demand and boost European equity issuance volumes; failure would likely raise questions around Europe's IPO market, reinforcing the trend toward private markets and U.S. listings. https://lnkd.in/eff2PF_c

Shared my views recently with EnterpriseAM about the equity IPOs outlook in the GCC. Below are some excerpts from the article. A little over two months after a US-Iran truce shaved off the region’s immediate risk premium, the regional IPO market is still in somewhat of a limbo with prospective issuers taking one and two steps forward before retreating into an ever-inflating pipeline. The consensus is that structural headwinds — like tighter liquidity, more expensive funding, and tougher valuation discipline — have now overtaken geopolitics as the bigger obstacle. The region closed 1Q 2026 with just four IPOs raising a combined USD 296.6 mn — the weakest first quarter since 2018. The ceasefire had made markets attractive again, analysts told us, but the structural rot ran deeper than geopolitics: Thinner liquidity, a valuation recalibration, and a string of 2025 listings that never delivered meaningful secondary-market returns had already killed the region’s IPO euphoria before the first shot was fired. Breaking through the noise is Oman’s Omifco, which just priced its upcoming IPO after closing an oversubscribed bookbuilding process ahead of plans to hit the Muscat Exchange next week. The IPO slowdown predates the war. “Gulf equity markets were already under pressure from falling oil prices, stretched valuations, declining dividend yields, and a shift of flows toward US and AI-driven markets”, Muhammad Ahsan, Bank Nizwa’s Senior Head of Treasury & Global Markets and Investment Banking, tells EnterpriseAM. “Poor post-IPO performance of some companies made the IPO case difficult. War brought this to a halt, but we had already seen a slowing trend,” he added. The revival will be spearheaded by governments offloading stakes in well-known, established names — essentially following the Omifco model, Ahsan argues. “Private sector firms will not be too keen to come for an IPO in this environment, at least for the next few months,” he tells us. The bar for a privately-owned issuer to go to market in this climate — pricing realistically, building a book with skittish institutional investors, then holding up in secondary trading — is simply too high for most IPO-hopefuls to clear. Oman, meanwhile, continues to benefit from a supportive privatization program, Omifco being the most recent proof point. The UAE stays in the middle because higher exposure to international sentiment makes execution harder to read. Kuwait and Egypt face comparatively greater challenges: Shallow liquidity in the former, and macro stress in the latter. Ahsan is expecting only a tepid recovery in 2H at best, with the Saudi market leading, and little to nothing expected from the UAE and Qatar. “I believe stability in regional geopolitics could drive more issues, but in 2027,” he tells us. #oman #ipo #valuation #yields #gcc

🇪🇺 2025 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐨 𝐚 𝐝𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐧 𝐭𝐞𝐜𝐡 From public markets re-opening to mega-rounds in AI and defence tech, Europe is shipping milestones every week. Here’s a snapshot of what’s making this year different 👇 𝐈𝐏𝐎𝐬 & 𝐟𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 🚀 Klarna's US IPO priced at $40/share, debut pop valued it ~$19.7B 🚀 Visma's lining up a London listing (after a 2023 private sale at ~€19B) 🚀 HBX Group (Hotelbeds) listed in Madrid at €2.84B market cap; raised €725M 🚀 CIRSA (Blackstone), listed in Madrid at €2.52B; €521M offering Brainlab (Germany), Stada (Germany) and Autodoc - paused/delayed 𝐌𝐚𝐣𝐨𝐫 (𝐭𝐞𝐜𝐡 & 𝐭𝐞𝐜𝐡-𝐚𝐝𝐣𝐚𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭) 𝐚𝐜𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 🤝 Workday → Sana (NL): ~$1.1B to fold AI-native learning into HR 🤝 Compass Group → Vermaat (NL): €1.5B deal expanding digital-driven food services in Europe (Plus: AI/infra M&A is running hot across EMEA; PE and strategics are back on offense.) €100𝐌+ 𝐟𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐬 (𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐭) 🧠 Mistral AI raised €1.7B (ASML led €1.3B), valuing it just under €12B 🛡️ Quantum Systems (DE drones) €160M Series C (Balderton, Airbus, Hensoldt) 📱 Nothing (UK) $200M Series C at $1.3B to push AI-native devices 🧮 Xelix (UK AP/finops) $160M Series B led by Insight Partners ⚛️ Proxima Fusion (DE) extended Series A (now €200M total funding; earlier A was €130M) 🧠 PhysicsX (UK) $135M round, nearing $1B valuation in AI-for-engineering 🇵🇹 TEKEVER (PT defence drones) confirmed €1B+ valuation with new funding ❤️ Lovable claims $100M ARR in 8 months and a fresh round near $1.8B—the “fastest-growing” tag is their claim, but the momentum is real Other s𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬: 🚀 Revolut ran a secondary at a $75B valuation 🚀 ElevenLabs crossed $200M ARR; employee secondary reportedly at $6.6B. (reported via industry media) 🚀 Sword Health hit $4B valuation (new round), underscoring PT’s momentum 𝐁𝐢𝐠 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐝𝐠𝐞𝐬: + The European Investment Bank (EIB) earmarked €70B for European tech firms between 2025-2027 under “Tech EU,” targeting clean tech, digital infra, health, robotics, defence. + The EU Commission launched the “Scaleup Europe Fund” (~€10B public-private) to help startups cross the scale-up chasm. 💡 What makes 2025 special? It’s not just capital raised, it’s the milestones: record-breaking ARR growth, unicorns hitting serious revenue, IPO windows reopening, and deep tech bets (AI, quantum, fusion, defence) scaling across Europe. 👉 Which milestone stands out most for you in 2025? And which other big ones should be added to the list? #innovation #technology #entrepreneurship #startups #scaleups #Europe