Channel Risk Management

Most budget debates sound like this: Let’s put $100K into Channel X because last quarter ROI looked solid. Translation: You’re gambling on a single point estimate. I introduce confidence bands, an idea borrowed from finance, to make marketing spend a calculated risk, not roulette. How it works: 1️⃣ Model Return Distribution: ↳ Take the last 12 months of channel ROI. ↳ Build a simple 80 % confidence interval (CI). ↳ GA4 + BigQuery make this a two‑line SQL script. 2️⃣ Assign Risk Tiers: ↳ Channels with narrow CIs = predictable (low risk). ↳ Wide CIs = volatile (high risk). ↳ Create three tiers: Core. Growth. Experimental. 3️⃣ Allocate by Risk Appetite: ↳ Core gets stable funding. ↳ Growth receives incremental budget as long as ROI stays within band. ↳ Experimental gets capped spend, think venture bets with predefined exit rules. Result: Budgets adjust automatically to performance volatility, not politics. One e‑commerce client reallocated 15 % of ad spend from volatile display ads to a stable influencer program and saw a 26 % lift in blended ROAS, no additional dollars required. Executives love it because it turns marketing magic into disciplined portfolio management. Which risk tier currently eats most of your budget? A) Core (predictable) B) Growth (moderate risk) C) Experimental (high risk)

Most leaders think platform risk means “what if sales slow down?” But the real threat isn’t demand. It’s dependency. If 70–90% of your revenue comes from a single marketplace, you don’t control your margins. They do. We’ve seen it play out repeatedly: • A sudden fee hike erodes profit overnight. • A policy shift pushes listings down in search. • A compliance crackdown freezes inventory with no warning. The overlooked risk isn’t losing customers. It’s losing leverage. Here’s how mid-market DTC brands can protect margins before Q4 pressure hits: → 𝗦𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱 𝗱𝗲𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗻𝗰𝘆. Don’t wait until Amazon or TikTok squeezes you out. Add Walmart, Target, or retail partnerships early. → 𝗨𝗻𝗶𝗳𝘆 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗳𝘂𝗹𝗳𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁. A single backbone lets you flex volume across platforms without extra cost. → 𝗦𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗽𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗻𝗲𝗿𝘀. Revenue-share alignment ensures growth is profitable, not just high-volume on one channel. At 1 Commerce, we’ve seen that resilience isn’t built by guessing where risk might hit. It’s built by removing single points of failure before they hit. The brands that finish Q4 strong won’t be the ones with the flashiest campaigns. They’ll be the ones with margin control, no matter what the platforms decide. ↳ How are you diversifying platform risk ahead of peak season? #DTCGrowth #RiskManagement #SmartFulfillment #MarketplaceStrategy #OperatorLed

I’ve been seeing something dangerous lately. Businesses becoming completely dependent on one marketing channel. It doesn’t matter whether it’s SEO, paid search, paid social, email, or referrals. Every channel has turbulence. Algorithms change. Costs rise. Competition evolves. I’m a huge believer in finding what works and going all in. In fact, I’d rather see 80% of your effort focused on dominating one channel than spreading yourself too thin. But never let it become 100%. Keep at least 20% of your marketing invested in another channel. Not because it’s outperforming your primary strategy, but because if something changes tomorrow, you already know how to flex that muscle. Diversification isn’t about diluting your focus. It’s about reducing your risk. Dominate one. Develop another. Sleep better at night. Rob Timmermann

"We're spending 80% of our marketing budget on Google Ads." That's not a marketing strategy. That's putting all your eggs in one very expensive basket. And that basket belongs to Google. Here's what happens when you over-rely on one marketing channel... Algorithm changes can destroy your business overnight. Think about that temporary TikTok ban a few months ago... Cost-per-click keeps going up. You're competing with everyone else for the same keywords. You have zero diversification if something goes wrong. The businesses that build sustainable marketing understand diversification: → 30% on paid advertising (Google, Facebook, LinkedIn) → 25% on content marketing and SEO → 20% on email marketing and automation → 15% on brand building and PR → 10% on testing new channels and experiments This isn't just about spreading risk. It's about creating a marketing ecosystem where each channel amplifies the others. Your content marketing makes your paid ads more effective. Your email marketing nurtures the traffic from your SEO efforts. Your brand building reduces your cost per acquisition across all channels. Your paid ads provide immediate data to inform your long-term content strategy. When you put everything into one channel, you're not just risking your marketing. You're risking your entire business. Because the moment that channel becomes less effective or more expensive, you're scrambling to start over with channels you should have been building all along. Diversification isn't just smart investing advice. It's smart marketing advice, too. Brand House Marketing #MarketingStrategy #ChannelDiversification #MarketingBudget #RiskManagement

Online and Offline, different ball games A recent news caught my attention. https://lnkd.in/gKkcUxXn #Mamaearth is an example of how a so called successful online #D2C brand fails to repeat the success in offline format. There are several reasons for this failure: 🔴 Complexity of offline physical distribution process: Unlike online, traditional trade travels through multiple intermediaries, e.g. manufacturer, #CNF, #distributor, #wholesaler, #retailer etc. Deeper the levels of distribution, lesser the control on the operation, higher the cost to serve. The marketer needs to put a watchdog at every level of intermediaries as cost and service level optimizations are the two key criteria for sustainable profitable growths in a #distribution led business format 🔴 Channel insights: If a brand needs to drive sales offline it has umpteen choices to place its #SKUs in various retail channels, e.g. groceries, pharmacies, convenience stores, stationers etc. But to place products correctly, the company must have deep #consumer and #shopper understanding for each channel. The understanding includes shoppers' profiles, shopping missions, #category preferences, average frequency of trips, average basket sizes etc. This insight helps the marketer to rationalize the range and assortment to decide on channel specific #MSS, must sell SKU 🔴 Channel management: Once the marketer has a good hold on #channel specific shoppers insights, the next step is identifying the channel attractiveness by analyzing the channel growth, category growth within the channel, category profitability and competition in the category. Then the available channels need to be prioritized based on the above four decision criteria 🔴 Unavailability of data and information: Traditional trade, unlike online D2C business, is a data-scarce environment. 80% of unorganized retailers have no data of their sales and trends. They work on sheer gut feel. Hence, there is a huge risk of unsold, old and expired stocks accumulation at different levels, e.g. distributor, wholesaler, retailer etc. The company needs solid ground level experience with business insights to be successful in such data-scarce environment 🔴 Visual merchandising: A critical success factor for #brickandmortar format. The #marketing and #sales teams must be well equipped with clear understanding of macro and micro store locations, the concept of #AVA (availability, visibility, accessibility), outputs and #KPIs of home shelves, off shelves, #FSUs etc. 🔴 Path to Purchase: Understanding the #pointofpurchase drivers and in-store execution of #4P, e.g. #product, #price, #place and #promotion with relevant #CTA (call to action) is critical Online and offline, two completely different ball games. Hence to come out of this situation, Mamaearth should observe and quickly learn the tricks of offline distribution. There is no harm in learning even from the strong offline rivals Stay tuned👍 #skincare #bodycare #haircare #babycare

Your product is great. That’s why your partners aren't selling it. It sounds counter-intuitive, but hear me out. Indirect channels are the fastest way to scale overseas, yet most founders hit the same wall: Resellers just don’t sell. You ask: “Why sign the contract if they aren't going to do the work?” You think: “We spent 60 man-years building this. We did the hard part. They just have to sell it.” Here is the brutal truth: That mindset is killing your channel. Too many ISVs believe the magic happens in development. You underestimate how expensive it is for a partner to launch a new solution. If you don't respect the risk, the relationship dies. Resellers are actually managing three massive risks when they sign with you: ❗ Financial Risk: They spend money to launch you. If it flops, that's on them. ❗ Success Risk: If you get too big, you might get acquired (Microsoft, Oracle, etc.) or take sales direct. They get left in the cold. ‼️ Reputation Risk (The Big One): Your company is just a name on a brochure. Their name is everything to their clients. The Fix: Great technology isn't enough. Professional resellers need professional vendors. If you show them you have their back—with structured training, marketing support, and a balanced agreement—they will reciprocate with sustainable revenue. 👉 What’s the biggest friction point you’ve faced with channel partners? Let’s discuss in the comments. #p2p #channelpartners #saasgrowth #isv

🌪️ No procurement process is risk-free. & that’s okay — because proactive planning is power. 💼🛡️ Whether it’s a small-dollar purchase, a multimillion-dollar capital project, or a multi-year service contract — risk is always present. It might show up in unclear scopes, vendor performance gaps, delivery delays, insurance lapses, regulatory changes, shifting markets, supply chain disruptions, or a missed clause hidden in the fine print. 🧐 🎯 But risk doesn’t have to mean failure. In fact, effective risk management is a defining mark of procurement maturity, leadership, & due diligence. 🌍 ⭐ Great procurement teams don’t ignore risk — they plan for it ⭐ They assess and identify risks early in the process ⭐ They design layered mitigations — from insurance & bonds, to oversight, inspections, & legal reviews ⭐ They monitor vendor performance, enforce contract terms, & keep the public trust ⭐ They build relationships & foster open communication with internal clients & external suppliers ⭐ & most importantly — they act when risk surfaces, with contingency plans ready ⚠️ Doing otherwise isn’t just careless — it could be considered negligence, non-compliance, or in extreme cases, gross negligence. & when taxpayer dollars are on the line, that risk isn’t just financial — it’s reputational, operational, legal, & ethical. 📜💰 🌱 That’s why risk management isn’t a checkbox — it’s a culture. A mindset of stewardship, where contracts are living documents, procurement is strategic, & the team isn’t just managing spend — they’re safeguarding public value. 🌉 Risk planning must be embedded from the first draft of a solicitation to the final deliverables & monitored every step in between. From performance bonds & Certificates of Insurance (COI) to force majeure clauses & vendor scorecards, every element tells a story of accountability. 💡 If your organization hasn’t reviewed its procurement risk framework lately, now is the time. Elevate your risk IQ. Train your staff. Engage your legal teams. Talk to vendors. Build a playbook. Because hope is not a strategy — but preparation is a superpower. 🙌 Thank you to all the public procurement professionals who treat risk as a leadership opportunity, not a fear to avoid. Together, we’re building smarter, safer, stronger systems — one contract at a time. #ProcurementExcellence #PublicProcurement #RiskManagement #ContractManagement #SupplierPerformance #DueDiligence #TransparencyMatters #Accountability #StrategicProcurement #ContinuousImprovement #TQM #SixSigma #ProcurementWithPurpose #PublicTrust #ClarityIsKindness #GlobalBestPractices #Governance #VendorManagement #COI #BondOversight #ProcurementLEADERSHIP  #ProcurementStrong #ProcurementReady #ProcurementWithIntelligence #CarpeDiemEveryDiem #LetsGo PRIMA - Public Risk Management Association ALARM, embrace risk NASCA Government Finance Officers Association (GFOA) National Contract Management Association (NCMA) NIGP: The Institute for Public Procurement UPPCC

Acquirers today must manage a growing network of third parties provisioning merchants, introducing complexity and risk. When there’s ambiguity around the submitting entity, processors and Acquirers can be exposed to residual disputes.  The risk increases further when multiple entities submit the same merchant through a single Acquirer (or processor), especially if that merchant operates under multiple MIDs. Without proper oversight, adverse actions applied to one MID may not be consistently enforced across related accounts (or beneficial owners) creating gaps in risk management. Acquirers need clear channel policies to adjudicate conflicts, along with visibility across submitting entities. Coris identifies linked accounts, URLs and owners and provides instant notice.

How to Reduce Third Party Risks Most of companies rely on many outside suppliers and partners to keep things running smoothly. While these relationships can help a business grow, they can also bring new risks. Taking steps to understand and reduce these risks will help keep your company safe. Below are some simple actions you can take. Vendor Risk Management Start by listing all of your outside suppliers and partners. Decide which ones are most important for your daily work. This way, you know where to focus your time and energy to keep problems from spreading. Conduct Thorough Due Diligence Before signing an agreement, learn as much as possible about a new supplier. Check their financial stability, ask about their security measures, and look into their track record. Picking the right partner at the start makes a huge difference later on. Security Assessments and Audits Every so often, test your suppliers’ security. Ask questions, run tests, and make sure they follow good safety practices. These regular checkups help find weak spots before they turn into serious problems. Secure Communication Channels Use safe and private ways to talk with your suppliers. Encrypted emails and secure file transfers help keep your shared information out of the wrong hands. Continuous Monitoring Keep an eye on things over time. Watch for unusual behavior, strange requests, or unexpected changes. Spotting warning signs early lets you fix issues before they get worse. Access Control and Privilege Management Give suppliers only the access they need, and nothing more. If one account is stolen or misused, limiting its access helps prevent bigger problems. Software Security Make sure all the programs you and your suppliers use are kept up to date. Old software often has known flaws that criminals can use to break in. Supplier Diversity Don’t rely on just one supplier for everything. Spreading out your needs across different companies reduces the risk of one weak link causing major trouble. Incident Response Planning Prepare a clear plan for what to do if something does go wrong. Practice it often so everyone knows their role and how to act quickly. Security Awareness Training Teach your team what to watch out for. Simple things like recognizing suspicious emails or reporting odd requests can make a big difference. Regulatory Compliance Stay informed about any rules that apply to your business. Following these rules helps avoid fines and keeps your customers’ trust. Keeping an eye on your suppliers is not about stopping your business from growing. It’s about helping it grow in a way that stays safe and dependable. By asking the right questions, setting clear rules, and acting quickly when you see signs of trouble, you can build a network of trustworthy partners. The actions you take today will help protect your business in the future.

We lost 12 weeks once and millions in sales - all because of one email. One…Unanswered…Email! A Supplier flagged a critical delay. The message went into a shared inbox. No-one followed up… No-one escalated the situation… No-one took any action! Twelve weeks later, production stalled. The team scrambled. Blame flew. Fingers were pointed. But the real issue - no one owned the communication. In Risk Management, time is everything and silence is dangerous. If your team doesn’t have: - Clear escalation paths with timeline KPI’s - Defined communication protocols - Allocated ownership of every inbound risk signal You're not managing risk…you’re leaving yourself vulnerable to it.