Analyzing Open Rates

Open rates are the most misleading metric in sales. They make you feel like you’re getting traction but reality, the data is completely broken. Here are 4 reasons why (and what to actually measure): 1. Email clients handle open tracking differently Gmail and Outlook handle tracking pixels in totally different ways. Send the same email and Gmail might show 60% opens, while Outlook shows 40%. That’s a 20% delta — if the pixel even fires at all. 1. Apple Mail killed open tracking Apple’s Mail Privacy Protection preloads emails, images, and pixels before a user even sees the message. So your platform logs an open… but the person never read it. This impacts every iOS user so….basically everyone. 1. Bots and security scanners inflate opens Enterprise security tools scan inbound emails for threats which includes opening and parsing them. This triggers your tracking. Now you think your subject line crushed it, but half your opens were bots. Nobody read it. 1. Pixel blocking tools everywhere The opposite is also true: real opens that don’t get tracked. Chrome extensions, ad blockers, and privacy tools can all suppress pixels entirely. So someone could open your email, read it top to bottom, maybe even forward it and your platform will show zero engagement. Here’s what you should measure instead: 1. Reply rate This is the single most important metric in the entire game. It answers the only question that matters: Did a human engage? Every reply is good. Yes. No. Even “stop emailing me.” They show Google and Microsoft that humans are responding to your emails. That you're not just some bot dumping generic outreach into the void.  No replies = you're either in spam, or your message is irrelevant. 1. Bounce rate A bounce means the email address is dead or fake. If your bounce rate is above 1%, you’re seen as a spammer. And that flag doesn’t just apply to one campaign, it pulls down your sender score across the board. Even your best emails stop reaching inboxes. If you don’t fix your list, you're just spraying garbage. 1. Opt-out rate This one tells you whether you’re hitting the right audience. When someone unsubscribes or worse, reports you, what they’re saying is: “You’re not relevant. I don’t want to hear from you.” And they’re not wrong. If your targeting was on point, if your messaging was contextual, if your outreach spoke directly to their pain they wouldn’t be opting out. Even if they don’t respond right away, they’d read. They’d stay in your pipeline. They’d keep the door open. This is usually a result of lazy ICP work. Either you’re going too broad, or your criteria are completely misaligned with what the market actually looks like. ——— We built the entire Forge stack to solve exactly this: → Leadsforge to source clean, qualified data → Salesforge to execute multichannel outreach at scale → Warmforge to protect your domain health behind the scenes Open rates don’t build pipeline. Replies do.

We analyzed over 27 million cold emails. Here are key insights into mailbox activity and performance: 📊 open rates: - Across all non-agency campaigns globally, the average open rate is 26%. - Open rates remain stable across workdays but drop 6-9% on weekends. 📊 reply rates: - Smaller, highly targeted campaigns (1-50 prospects) have a reply rate nearly 3x higher than mass campaigns with 1001-5000 prospects. - Campaigns with a bounce rate under 2% enjoy a 60% higher reply rate than those with 20%+ bounce rates. - Initial emails have the highest reply rates (~1%), with subsequent follow-ups seeing diminishing returns (30% as effective by the 5th or 6th email). 📈 mailbox volume and performance: - Mailboxes sending 1-20 emails daily have reply rates four times higher than those sending 101-200 emails daily. - 21-50 daily emails see a balanced performance, with over twice the reply rates of high-volume senders. 🔑 key takeaways ↳ Personalized, concise, and well-segmented campaigns drive higher engagement. ↳ Maintaining a low bounce rate and optimizing email volume per mailbox is critical for maximizing results. ↳ Send no more than 3 messages in sequence. Have you noticed similar patterns in your campaigns?

If you’ve seen your open rates declining at Gmail this year, you’re not alone. Validity Inc. customers have seen quarter-over-quarter drops of more than 30%. So what’s going on? Partly it points to a change in the frequency Google prefetches images before messages are opened, so opens are recorded regardless of whether recipients actually open these emails (similar to Apple's MPP). The tidal wave of Gmail updates over recent months is also contributing. Senders who mail to unengaged audiences are now deprioritised in relevance sorted Promotions tabs, while AI summaries and Gemini integration mean subscribers can extract value from your emails without even opening them. I’ve written a lot recently about how traditional engagement signals, like opens (and even clicks) just aren’t reliable anymore. Sure, they’re familiar and easy to track but the prefetching example shows how the way they’re generated can change at a moment’s notice. Zeta Global's benchmark report for Q1 '26 compares unique open rates (41.4%) with true open rates (10.9%) - with automatic opens removed from the latter. This suggests almost three quarters of all recorded email opens are false.   Of course, it doesn’t mean these signals are completely useless. They can still provide directional value, but I wouldn’t be rushing to reconfigure your program just because your Gmail opens have dropped. Instead, I’d be asking: Are subscribers still taking actions that show real intent? Are they replying, forwarding, making purchases? What about complaining or unsubscribing? Especially with the regulators in France and Italy now confirming the tracking pixel in your emails counts like a cookie, meaning email open tracking requires subscriber consent. The underlying laws actually date back to 2011, and it will only be a matter of time before other EU countries follow suit. We’ve known for a while that opens are getting weaker as a performance metric. Gmail has now made this harder to ignore, just at the same time as the bar for using this increasingly haphazard metric is being raised! What metrics are you weighing most heavily when deciding where to take your email program next?

Open rates are lying to you. Apple's Mail Privacy Protection inflated them. A 50% open rate might mean 20% actually read it. The metric most brands celebrate is the one that matters least. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗮𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿: → Revenue per recipient (RPR) → Click-to-conversion rate → Revenue per flow → List growth rate (net of unsubscribes) → Placed order rate 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗯𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻: → Open rate (inflated by Apple MPP) → Total subscriber count (vanity) → Click rate alone (without conversion context) → Unsubscribe rate (often misread) These aren't useless. But they don't predict revenue. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗿𝗮𝗺𝗲𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸: 1. Start with RPR. It's the only metric that ties directly to dollars. 2. Layer in click-to-conversion. High clicks + low conversions = landing page or offer problem. 3. Track list growth net of churn. A growing list that's bleeding subscribers isn't growing. 4. Measure flow revenue separately from campaign revenue. Different engines, different benchmarks. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆: Two emails with wildly different open rates can generate the same revenue. The difference is what happens after the open. Measure what moves the needle. Not what looks good in a screenshot.

No, open rates aren’t as precise as they used to be, but they can still be useful. And yet: I find that nearly every team I talk to is thinking about them the wrong way. Here are five ways I think you should use them: ❶ As a part of A/B testing around the newsletter envelope — By that, I mean: Your sent-from name, your subject line, or your preheader text. Those are the three things that, no matter where a reader checks email, they see before they open your newsletter. When you A/B test those parts of the newsletter, look carefully at open rate — is there a difference in opens? If so, that’s a signal that you’re onto something readers like. ❷ To understand engagement for new growth cohorts, like paid growth or partnerships — Did the readers who came via that paid ad actually engage? What about the readers who came via a referral program or giveaway? Track engagement from each new channel — tools like beehiiv or GlueLetter newsletter analytics can help with this — and see which types of readers actually engage. I did this with a client last month, and we found that some of their paid ads led to open rates as high as 70%, while other ads led to open rates in the teens. We knew right away which ads we wanted to invest more in. ❸ To identify deliverability issues — This one’s pretty simple. If you’re used to seeing open rates of, say, 40%, and you suddenly see them drop below 20%, that’s a red flag that there’s some sort of deliverability problem that needs fixing. ❹ To measure progress after a deliverability issue — Open rates can signal a deliverability problem, but they can also be used to understand if you’ve fixed those deliverability issues. When a client sees a dip in open rates, we keep a close eye on open rates (plus other tools, like Google Postmaster) to see if the fixes we’re putting in place are making a difference. ❺ To identify readers for a reactivation series — If a reader is showing no engagement (no opens or no clicks) over a period of 30/60/90 days, that means that, A) They’re not engaging with your emails, and B) There isn’t even a bot engaging with your emails. Those readers are truly inactive. Work to win them back or let them go. ——— 📷 That’s a screenshot of a client’s beehiiv dashboard, showing open rate (and click-through rate and unsubscribe rate) by cohort.

40%+ open rates aren't luck. They follow 5 principles. I've written hundreds of subject lines for ghostwriting clients. The ones that consistently get 40%+ open rates follow the same fundamentals. Master these 5 principles, and your open rates will follow: #𝟭: 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗮𝗸 𝗱𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗿 Make them feel seen. Make it about their gap, frustration, or goal. Some examples: “Still stuck at 20% open rates?” “Why your emails aren’t converting (yet)” “If your launches feel flat… read this” These work because the reader immediately thinks: that’s me. #𝟮: 𝗕𝗲 𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗳𝗶𝗰 Give them a clear reason to open. Numbers, outcomes, and concrete promises perform best. Some examples: “The 4 words that added $27,400” “From 22% to 41% opens in 14 days” Specificity signals proof. Proof earns clicks. #𝟯: 𝗦𝗮𝘆 𝗶𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝗳𝗲𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗱𝘀 Aim for 5-10 words maximum. If you can say it in 10, try for 7. Some examples: “Low opens? Fix this first” “This is killing your open rates” #𝟰: 𝗖𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗶𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝘆 Curiosity works best when it hints at a gap, mistake, or hidden edge. Some examples: “I nearly scrapped this strategy…” “This email almost didn’t go out” Good curiosity makes them think: "I need to know more." #𝟱: 𝗟𝗲𝗮𝗱 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲 Don't tell them what's inside. Tell them what they'll get or feel. Some examples: "How I turned 180 sign-ups into 10 clients" “From ghosted to fully booked in 30 days” People open emails for transformation or insight. Show them that upfront. 𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗼 𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 Look at your next subject line and ask: → Is this about me or about them? → Is the value specific and clear? → Is it 15 words or less? → Does it create curiosity or promise an outcome? If you can answer yes to all four, you've got a strong line. Most people won't test. Write 5 options. Pick the top 2. A/B test them. Track which styles work best for your audience over time. Small improvements here compound into significantly higher open rates. --- ♻️ Repost to help other coaches improve their subject lines. 🔔 Follow Mohammed Kasujee for more content on newsletter strategy and writing.

Low Open Rates are amazing! Here why: 👇 If I ask you to invite your 3 closest friends and family to your birthday party, how many of them do you think will come? All three. 100% conversion 🎉 If I ask you to invite 200 people to your birthday party, how many of them do you think will come? 60%? 70%? If you send emails to your top customers that shop actively and engage often with your messages, you’ll get ~50%+ Open Rates. If you send emails to customers that haven’t shopped in over 180 days and rarely open message, you’ll get ~10% Open Rates. Who you send to matters and will artificially change your percentages. It’s how statistics and data works. Same thing if you send 5,000 emails to your regular customers with an open rate of 40% and an extra 30,000 emails to people who have never purchased with an open rate of 5%. The 30k emails will dilute the overall statistics and give you a total average of 10%. That 10% is misleading. You need to stop looking at overall averages and look at separate averages based on strategic segmentation. Here’s what we do at my company, Tact: Segment based on various factors like > how recently they shopped > how often they tend to shop > how much they tend to spend > and other relevant customer group variables What you’ll find is that every segment has different behavioral characteristics that affect open rates, conversion rates, click through rates, and more. So why are low open rates are amazing? It tells you where the greatest opportunity for improvement is. That’s where if you bring a 10% open rate to 15%… you just increased it by 50%. Which means you likely increased conversions, and therefore revenue. If we wanted to brag to our clients about high open rates, we could alter the way we send messages and secure 60%+ Open Rates every week. Instead, we prove to them that we’re making them tens and hundreds of thousands of dollars of *NEW REVENUE* through retention strategies. So, just beware of high open rates without context and without proof of REAL revenue impact. Ask your marketing team to dig deeper. Don't even get me started on "ROI"....

Your 6-email sequence has 45% open rates. 0.8% reply rates. Opens mean nothing. Marketing celebrates the opens. Sales gets zero conversations. Here's what actually happened with those "opened" emails: Prospect saw the subject line in their preview pane. Email client counted it as an open. Prospect clicked to delete it. Another open registered. Prospect's assistant screened it. Open counted, decision maker never saw it. Meanwhile, your email platform shows 45% engagement. Marketing declares success. But sales reality tells a different story: 0.8% of people actually replied. That's 8 responses from 1,000 emails. Of those 8 responses, maybe 2 are interested. The other 6 are unsubscribes. Open rates measure curiosity, not intent. Visibility, not engagement. The only email metric that predicts revenue is reply rate. A 15% open rate with 5% replies beats a 50% open rate with 1% replies every time. Stop optimizing for opens. Start optimizing for conversations. What's your actual email reply rate?

Are opens a good metric to follow for your email marketing? Well...Maybe in 2018. Stop asking if a 30% open rate is "good." You are asking the wrong question, and your vanity metrics are masking a silent deliverability crisis. When new email marketers launch a campaign, the first thing they do is refresh the dashboard, stare at the open rate, and compare it to a generic Google search benchmark. If Google or ChatGPT says 25% is an average open rate and they hit 28%, they celebrate. Here is the hard truth: There is no universal benchmark. And your open rates are practically a vanity metric. An editorial newsletter, an e-commerce flash sale, and a B2B product update will all perform completely differently. Factors like list age, sending frequency, and whether your traffic came from a warm opt-in or a cold stream change the math entirely. Worse, ever since Apple Mail Privacy Protection and Gmail Proxy Open started pre-fetching and artificially inflating open data, your dashboard is lying to you. If you want to know if your email program is actually successful and safe from the spam folder, you need to shift your focus to these 5 core metrics: 1. Opens combined with...: By itself, opens can be harder to find accurate results, but along with clicks or web traffic or purchases, it showcases the intentionality of the subscriber. If your opens are high but your clicks are flatlining, bots are reading your emails, not humans. 2. New vs. Older Subscribers Engagement: Break your data down by subscriber age. It is completely normal to see your newest subscribers engage at a rate 2–3× higher than people who signed up a year ago. If your long-time subscribers have gone completely dark, your content lacks retention value. It might also be time to clean your list. 3. Long-term trend: Stop obsessing over the performance of a single Tuesday morning broadcast. Look at your 3-to-6-to-12-month trajectory. Are your overall engagement trends, domain reputation, and IP health moving up or down? That is your true directional compass. 4. Replies, Forwards, and Web Traffic: Mailbox providers like Gmail and Outlook love two-way communication. Track your organic replies, web traffic, and forwards. When a subscriber replies to your email, it sends a massive positive signal to the algorithm that you belong in the inbox. 5. Long Time Inactivity: If a large portion of your list hasn't opened, clicked, or interacted with your brand in X days, they could be dead weight, dragging your sender reputation into the mud and using up your resources. Suppress those inactive users. Send your main campaigns only to subscribers active plus a tiny, rotating slice (about 5-10% of your list size) of unengaged users to test for signs of life. When those inactive subscribers are cleaned, you'll see stronger performance all around. Stop playing the vanity metric game. Protect your email infrastructure.

Open rates have been broken since iOS 15 in 2021! here's what most people still don't know: Apple Mail now holds over 50% of email client market share. which means the majority of "opens" your ESP is reporting aren't people, they're Apple's proxy servers pre-loading your email before anyone reads a single word. In some segments, up to 75% of reported opens in 2025 were artificial. Not a rounding error, a structural lie in your dashboard. ⚠️ and yet most teams are still: → triggering automations based on opens → A/B testing subject lines using open rate as the winner metric → reporting open rates to stakeholders as proof of engagement. what should you track instead? → clicks over delivered — no MPP. no proxy noise. just real people taking real action. → conversion by segment — what actually happened after the email. → unsubscribe rate: the most honest signal you have! Open rates didn't become useless overnight! We just kept reporting them because nobody wanted to walk into a meeting and say "the number we've been celebrating since #2021 isn't real." That conversation is overdue ⏰