IPO Market Research

Are IPOs a path to quick riches or a trap for the unwary? We analyzed 20+ years of data across 2,000 Indian IPOs, and the "base rates" might surprise you. While the median listing day gain is a tempting ~8%, the long-term reality is different: 📉 The Flattening Effect: Returns tend to flatten significantly 1-6 months post-listing. 📊 Index vs. IPOs: The median long-term annualized return for IPOs is ~10%, actually underperforming the broad market (12-13%). Only ~40% beat the index. 🗓️ Vintage Risks: IPOs cluster during market peaks when valuations are highest—great for sellers, often tough for buyers. In this video, Shray and I break down why chasing new listings can hurt returns, why size matters (smaller IPOs often fare better), and our fund’s specific framework for evaluating new issuances. Capitalmind Mutual Fund Capitalmind #CapitalmindFlexicapFund #IPOs #InvestmentPhilosophy

India's IPO landscape just flipped the script: Industrials and consumer businesses now lead deal volumes while traditional powerhouses like fintech and IT take a backseat with fewer but bigger bets. According to Business Standard's latest report (link in comments) citing Prime Infobase data on India's 2025 IPO market trends, we're witnessing the most diverse sectoral mix in years. ↳ Stats that demand attention • Industrial sector leads with 9 IPOs (₹5,262 cr) vs 22 deals (₹21,019 cr) in 2024 • Consumer discretionary close second with 7 IPOs (₹13,226 cr) • Financial services dropped to just 1 deal but valued at ₹12,500 cr (vs 13 deals in 2023) • Healthcare maintains steady momentum: 17 firms raised ₹26,672 cr over 3 years • 70+ companies with SEBI approval targeting ₹1.2 trillion, another 90 awaiting clearance worth ₹1.4 trillion ↳ Three insights reshaping the industry • Market maturity is driving sectoral diversification Investors are now embracing sectors that previously faced resistance, moving beyond the safe bets of fintech and IT to back industrial and consumer plays. • Capital allocation is becoming more strategic Financial sector IPOs are shifting from lending-heavy models to capital-market-focused companies, reflecting changing market dynamics and risk appetites. • Growth trajectory trumps sectoral preferences Companies with clear growth stories can access public markets regardless of sector headwinds, as evidenced by the pipeline spanning agriculture to solar energy. ↳ My perspective after 20+ years Having witnessed the evolution from traditional financial institutions to digital-first platforms over 20+ years, here's what's really driving this surge: • Regulatory confidence: SEBI's streamlined processes and predictable timelines are encouraging diverse sectors to go public • Digital infrastructure maturity: UPI, digital KYC, and fintech rails have made it easier for traditional businesses to demonstrate scalable growth models • Investor sophistication: Public market investors now better understand business models beyond traditional tech, creating appetite for industrial and consumer stories ↳ Strategic questions for the ecosystem: • Which sectors do you think will dominate IPO volumes in 2026? • And for fintech leaders: How are you positioning your companies to support this diversifying IPO ecosystem through embedded finance solutions?

There have been 191 IPOs in the US this year… vs. 1,000+ in 2021. For more venture funding to go into companies, it needs to eventually come back out, making IPO exits a critical part of the VC ecosystem. But since 2022, IPOs have been stuck. The average # of IPOs in the US from 2022 to YTD 2024 is down 60% vs. the 5yr period ending ‘21. Capital markets, and the VC industry specifically, are eagerly awaiting a resurgence of IPO activity. Most market participants we speak to expect a surge in tech IPOs to kick off in Q2 ‘25. This sparks the question: what does it take for a company to go public? Like most things in VC, it’s an art & a science. I’ll focus on the science, but the artwork includes needing to have a scaled revenue base (usually $100m+), strong growth with a path to profitability, and a really good story. The science: Preparing a company for an IPO involves many steps. Companies taking these steps may signal their readiness to go public opportunistically when market conditions are ideal. Here are some leading indicators of an IPO, and recent examples from notable VC-backed tech companies (sources below): 🔁 Hiring an experienced public company CFO — + points if this person has taken another VC-backed company public already. Ex: Canva's recent hiring of Zoom's previous CFO. 🏦 Hiring investment banks — a tier 1 bank leading an IPO is usually a positive signal to the market. Ex: Chime hiring Morgan Stanley for a possible 2025 IPO. 🧹 Cap table cleanup — not always a signal, but works in combination with the others. If you’ve been private for 10+ years, you may remove potential downward pressure on your stock by giving would-be sellers a liquidity valve before IPO lockup expiration. Ex: Stripe. 🔎 Rumors of registration statement preparation (S-1, F-1) — going public typically involves months of regulatory paperwork. Starting that process is a signal. Ex: Figma. 🤐 Confidentially filing — allows companies to gather feedback from the SEC on their registration statement without revealing too much about their financial performance to the market. Ex: Klarna. 🔔 Publicly filing — the first time the public can view a company’s registration statement, usually with placeholder IPO terms. But a clear sign the company plans to list imminently. Ex: ServiceTitan. At Caplight, we’ve seen a rise in some of these indicators, which might suggest that the IPO window is about to open. What do you think? Any IPO indicators that we missed? Any companies that should be on this tracker? #venturecapital #liquidity #IPO #unicorns #privatemarkets #goingpublic #IPOwindow #secondarymarkets

106 IPOs. $1.1B raised. 22% jump in deal flow. Today's NYT headline about "waiting to go public" missed these numbers. Our data tells a different story in the microcap world. The article highlights Turo canceling its IPO and suggests market uncertainty is stalling public offerings. But what we're actually seeing is a market that's becoming more selective, not less active. Our LB DataDesk Data Desk 2024 year-in-review tracking shows:   ↳ Median raises dropped 12.5% to $7M ↳ Average price fell 11% to $5.04 ↳ Deal scrutiny has intensified ↳ The bar for fundamentals has risen This isn't companies "getting cold feet" - it's strategic timing. Investors are demanding stronger fundamentals before writing checks. Being "IPO ready" in 2025 means something different than it did in years past. What separates companies that successfully IPO in today's market? They've used waiting periods strategically: strengthening fundamentals, building institutional relationships, and preparing for higher scrutiny. The market isn't closed. The requirements have changed. Smart founders and CEOs aren't just asking if they can go public. They're asking if they should - and what they need to strengthen while they wait.

Bloomberg Intelligence The future of IPOs: Public Markets in a Private Capital Era The IPO market is broken. There are 50% fewer public companies today than there were in 1996 and companies are staying private for much longer and going public at much higher valuations. Case in point SpaceX, which by some estimates will go public at a valuation of greater than $1.5 trillion, compared to Microsft, Apple and Nvida, which all went public for under $2billion. What is the difference? Who enjoyed the $4 trillion in upside of Apple? Most everyone reading this with exposure to the US equity markets. How enjoyed the upside of SpaceX, OpenAI or Anthropic? Certainly not me, and most likely, very few of you reading this post. To analyze why companies are not going public, and its challenges, I interviewed over 150 people at 68 venture, private equity, asset managers, brokers, exchanges, industry agencies, ex-regulators and just some very smart folks, and released a 49 page study on the hurdles companies face going public and why they are staying private for longer. Here is Bloomberg Terminal link to this study https://lnkd.in/e9KTVR9B or those with a Bloomberg Terminal go to 👉 Read it on the Terminal: BI DEEP <go> 👉 Or explore via our 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐃𝐚𝐬𝐡𝐛𝐨𝐚𝐫𝐝: BI MKTSG <GO>

Looking at trends from the last year, the biotech IPO market has shifted toward a more disciplined and selective approach, favoring companies with strong clinical-stage progress, clear capital planning, and well defined milestones. 2024 saw a healthier IPO market than the previous year, with 18 biotech IPOs, up from 10 in 2023, but the bar for public offerings has risen. Investors are looking for companies with tangible near-term catalysts, often within a year of going public. Therapeutic focus matters, with CNS, immunology, and oncology dominating the IPO landscape. For biotechs considering an IPO in 2025, strategic preparation is critical. Investors expect financial discipline, a compelling narrative, and a clear path to value creation. Gone are the days when early stage companies could rely on momentum alone. Now, specialist investors demand solid data and thoughtful execution. With generalist investors pulling back and high interest rates shaping the market, the companies that succeed will be the ones that can prove their worth early and often. A biotech IPO isn’t just a funding event, it’s a long term strategy that requires market awareness and a strong scientific and financial foundation. For those preparing to go public, the key question isn’t just ‘can we’, ‘but should we, and how do we make it count?’

Quick recap of the PitchBook Q1 2025 IPO Expectations report - my longer overview coming soon. The State of VC-Backed IPOs: A Slow Recovery Ahead Despite a strong public market, VC-backed IPOs remain sluggish, hitting their lowest levels since 2011. Only 40-42 IPOs per year were completed from 2022 to 2024, compared to 193 in 2021. High valuations, risk-averse investors, and macro uncertainty are key barriers. While some companies like Reddit and Astera Labs performed well post-IPO, half of non-healthcare unicorns in 2024 priced below their last private valuation, highlighting pricing mismatches. Why 2025 Could See a Moderate Rebound • Rate Cuts: Expected Fed reductions could improve investor sentiment. • Liquidity Pressures: Late-stage startups need capital, and secondary financings are scarce. • Strong Public Market: The S&P 500 gained 23.3% in 2024, creating a better IPO window. However, recovery will be slow. The Fed remains cautious, and investors now prioritize profitability. Tech IPOs that once traded at 20x+ revenue multiples now struggle to sustain 6x. The Growing IPO Pipeline After three years of low IPO activity, 601 startups now meet historical IPO benchmarks, up from 288 in 2021. AI, fintech, and healthtech lead the list, but valuation compression remains a challenge. Notable IPO candidates include: • StockX ($3.8B) • GrubMarket ($3.6B) • Indigo ($3.95B) • Zocdoc ($1.8B) Many unicorns may need down rounds or secondary sales before going public. IPO Forecast for 2025 • H1 2025: ~21 IPOs expected. • H2 2025: 30-40 additional IPOs if rate cuts materialize. • Full-Year Projection: 51-61 IPOs—better than the past three years but far below pre-2022 levels. A best-case scenario would see ~75 IPOs, improving VC liquidity but still short of 2021’s surge. Key Takeaways for Investors & Startups • VC-backed IPOs will increase but won’t return to past highs. • Down rounds and valuation cuts will be common. • AI, fintech, and healthtech startups dominate the pipeline but face fierce competition. • LPs are pressuring VCs for liquidity, forcing some startups to go public prematurely. • Rate cuts and economic strength could drive a moderate rebound, but uncertainty persists. For startups eyeing an IPO, the bar is now higher than ever. Investors demand real fundamentals—growth alone won’t cut it in this new era.

After a two-year drought, the US IPO market re-opened this week in dramatic fashion. Our IPO Issuance Barometer has been at a level consistent with the typical frequency of IPOs since June, suggesting a more normalized IPO backdrop going forward. Our analysis of nearly 5,000 IPOs completed during the past 25 years shows that 40%+ annualized sales growth through year 3 and positive net income by the 8th quarterly earnings report are associated with outperformance. 67% of IPOs meeting these characteristics outperformed the Russell 3000 over 3 years with the typical company outperforming by 22 pp. Investors should also consider valuations, as firms with high Price/Sales multiples at IPO rarely outperform. #USWeeklyKickstart

We recently polled advisors and institutional investors about how they are approaching the wave of AI mega IPOs, asking how these listings could influence portfolio decisions. A few takeaways stood out: -Among investors considering IPO-related allocation changes, 66% said they prefer larger or faster IPO access. Advisors were nearly twice as likely as institutions to adjust equity allocations based on IPO treatment. -Advisors are more than 3x more likely to allocate to active funds with above vs below-benchmark IPO exposure. -Institutions have a strong preference to allocate to index products with fast tracked IPO allocations vs those that do not. The results highlight that investors are thinking proactively not only on the opportunities created by a potential wave of AI-related IPOs, but also on how those companies are ultimately incorporated into portfolios and investment products. For more on the implications of AI mega IPOs and index inclusion, read our latest piece: IPOs: https://lnkd.in/eUF35pTJ Source: Polling conducted by BlackRock Investment and Portfolio Solutions, as of June 10, 2026. Answers reflect 2,335 unique respondents. IPO question results are based on 278 advisor respondents and 37 institutional respondents. The strategies discussed are strictly for illustrative and educational purposes and are not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. There is no guarantee that any strategies will be effective.   

India’s IPO Landscape is Changing We’re seeing a big shift in the type of companies going public in 2025 — and once you connect the dots, you’ll see how to ride the wave. _____________________________________________ What’s happening? 🔄 Sector mix is changing – Industrials & Consumer Discretionary are now leading the IPO charts. Why the shift? 📉 Macro backdrop – RBI has cut rates by 100 bps since Feb’25, making capital cheaper & liquidity supportive. 🛒 Consumption boost – FY26 Budget tax breaks & interest rate cuts are setting up for a strong domestic demand. 🌏 Global uncertainty – Trade wars are driving “vocal for local” sentiment, pushing demand for homegrown brands, creating a pressure on capacity. 💼 PE/VC exits – Angel investors are seeking liquidity for working capital, commissions or new investments. 🏗 Government push – Capex & PLI schemes are fueling infrastructure, industrial and manufacturing growth. 💵 Easy Capital - Post covid there’s has been a rise in Retail and Domestic Institutions participation for IPOs. _____________________________________________ Why Industrials & Consumers? Industrials: Budget capex, manufacturing incentives & PLI boosts are creating strong growth stories. Consumers: Higher incomes + tax tweaks = more spending power; companies are raising funds to scale & expand brands. Outlook: Momentum is likely to continue — DIIs, Retail, and QIB participation is strong post-Covid, making public markets an attractive source. For investors, we can analyze how liquidity is flowing — and how to play these sectors or proxy themes for growth. Who do you think will dominate IPOs over the next 2 years — Manufacturing or Consumer Brands? #IPO #StockMarket #Investing