Market Timing for IPOs

106 IPOs. $1.1B raised. 22% jump in deal flow. Today's NYT headline about "waiting to go public" missed these numbers. Our data tells a different story in the microcap world. The article highlights Turo canceling its IPO and suggests market uncertainty is stalling public offerings. But what we're actually seeing is a market that's becoming more selective, not less active. Our LB DataDesk Data Desk 2024 year-in-review tracking shows:   ↳ Median raises dropped 12.5% to $7M ↳ Average price fell 11% to $5.04 ↳ Deal scrutiny has intensified ↳ The bar for fundamentals has risen This isn't companies "getting cold feet" - it's strategic timing. Investors are demanding stronger fundamentals before writing checks. Being "IPO ready" in 2025 means something different than it did in years past. What separates companies that successfully IPO in today's market? They've used waiting periods strategically: strengthening fundamentals, building institutional relationships, and preparing for higher scrutiny. The market isn't closed. The requirements have changed. Smart founders and CEOs aren't just asking if they can go public. They're asking if they should - and what they need to strengthen while they wait.

I've watched 100+ startups rush to IPO too early. Zepto just showed the world a better way. While everyone expected Zepto to go public in 2025, CEO Aadit Palicha made a bold move. He hit pause on their $800 million IPO plan despite sitting on ₹7,000 crores in cash. Most cash-rich startups feel pressure to go public quickly. Zepto chose patience over speed. Here's their 3-step strategy that other startups are now copying: Step 1: Build profitability before going public. Zepto spent 2024 fixing their unit economics. They cut cash burn by 50% and achieved store-level profitability across major cities. Step 2: Increase domestic ownership above 50%. They're raising ₹6,000 crores from Indian investors instead of rushing to public markets. This gives them regulatory advantages and better control. Step 3: Learn from competitors' mistakes. While some tech IPOs have seen major post-listing drops, Zepto is studying what went wrong with others. They want to enter when market conditions favor growth, not when cash is tight. The logistics industry has taught me that timing changes everything. A good business will always find investors, but the right timing gets you the right valuation. Zepto understands this. They have the luxury of choice because they built sustainable operations first. Most founders rush to IPO when they have money. Zepto proved that having money gives you the power to wait for better terms. What's your take on strategic delays in business decisions?

2026 is shaping up to be a real IPO year 📈 PwC’s latest US Capital Markets Outlook reinforces what many of us are seeing firsthand: the IPO market quietly regained momentum in 2025, and the setup for 2026 looks materially stronger. Importantly, PwC is not alone in that view. Recent outlooks from KPMG US and Deloitte point to the same conclusion — capital markets activity is stabilizing, investor selectivity is improving, and companies that are scaled, profitable, and well prepared are finding real demand. Where will the list (NYSE, Nasdaq, Texas Stock Exchange | TXSE Group Inc)? A few signals worth highlighting from 2025: • Through November, 72 traditional IPOs raised over $33.6B, eclipsing full-year totals from each of the last three years • Issuance accelerated meaningfully in late summer and early fall, with September the busiest month for new listings in years • Eight IPOs priced during the October–early November government shutdown, underscoring depth of investor appetite even amid uncertainty • Sponsor-backed IPOs delivered their strongest year since 2021, with post-IPO performance averaging roughly 22% • VC-backed IPOs returned with fewer but larger, more profitable, and more operationally mature companies • SPAC issuance posted its most active stretch since 2021, rebuilding a meaningful forward pipeline Why the timing matters ⏱️ PwC, KPMG US, and Deloitte all point to the same dynamic: a backlog of companies that were “ready enough” in 2025 but delayed by market windows, SEC timing, or strategic considerations. Many of those issuers are now targeting early-to-mid 2026, supported by more stable rates, improving aftermarket performance, and investors willing to engage again — with discipline. The same sectors consistently rise to the top: • AI infrastructure and AI-enabled software • Insurance and specialty risk platforms • Industrials, reshoring, aerospace, and defense The companies best positioned for a 2026 IPO are not waiting for the window to open. They are preparing now aligning governance, financials, equity story, and regulatory strategy so they can move decisively when conditions line up. At Winston & Strawn LLP:, we work with issuers well before the S-1 stage, including through our IPO Training Camp and broader public company advisory platform. Our focus is practical and execution-driven: helping companies get transaction-ready early and move efficiently when timing matters. If 2026 is on your roadmap, now is the moment to build real optionality. #CapitalMarkets #VentureCapital #AI #WinstonStrawn #IPOTrainingCamp Eric Johnson

My team analyzed the IPO drought, and the findings are striking. Many are wondering why tech IPOs have nearly vanished, with only 16 non-healthcare companies going public in 2024—the lowest since 2011. Yet beneath this quiet surface, a wave is building. Here's why companies like Databricks, Deel, and Klarna are eyeing 2026: The Valuation Reality - 50% of unicorn IPOs in 2024 faced down-rounds - Reddit's "successful" IPO: Still 50% below private peak - Companies need time for private-public valuations to align The Profitability Imperative - EV/EBITDA multiples: 46.2x (2021) → 15.5x (2024) - Growth-first models require time to demonstrate sustainability - 2026 provides runway to show mature financials Market Timing Points to 2026 - Volatility expected to improve by late 2025 - Q1 2026: Anticipated valuation recovery - Interest rate environment stabilizing The Scale is Unprecedented - 601 US companies now IPO-ready (2x from 2021) - $1.5T in private market value waiting - 170 AI, 85 fintech, 63 healthtech companies prepared This isn't hesitation—it's calculated patience. Companies aren't just waiting; they're restructuring, strengthening governance, and positioning for optimal market conditions. Think of 2026 as the destination, but the journey there is equally important. Check out full detailed analysis on our Substack (link in comments).

"What's Capitalmind Mutual Fund's policy about investing in IPOs?" - one of the most frequent questions we've got in the last month. TL,DR: The odds tend to be against you, but never say never. We analyzed 2,000+ Indian IPOs from 2000 to 2025. The headline finding: Only 40% beat the NIFTY 500 Total Return Index over the long term. Less than a coin flip. The problem isn't the businesses, many grow earnings impressively. The problem is timing and pricing. IPOs flood the market when optimism peaks and valuations stretch. By the time you get allocated shares, much of the upside is already priced in. Three patterns from the data: 𝟭. Listing pops are theater. Median first-day gain is just 7%, and 30% of IPOs list flat or down. The spectacular gainers you remember? Availability bias. 𝟮. The years they list matters. IPOs that list during "quiet" times do better long-term than those listing in the throes of a bull market. The liquidity regime and sentiment at listing often overwhelms company performance for years. 𝟯. Smaller IPOs perform better. Smaller deal sizes have posted 14% median returns vs. 9% for the largest IPOs. And 49% beat the index vs. just 39% of large IPOs. At Capitalmind, our default stance: pass. We engage only when we find a business we already understand deeply, priced with genuine margin of safety. The full analysis breaks down issuance cycles, return dispersion, and why adverse selection makes IPO investing structurally difficult. 👇🏼 Here's the full article from the October Factsheet.

If reports continue to point toward SpaceX exploring an IPO — at a scale that could qualify as a true “deal of the century” — then beyond the story itself, one factor becomes decisive: the market backdrop. Because in a mega-IPO, timing is everything. And that’s why the underwriting syndicate has a strong interest in seeing a stable, absorptive equity market going into such a transaction: ▪️ Risk-on beats risk-off: investors commit more confidently when they don’t expect immediate post-IPO drawdowns. ▪️ Lower volatility, cleaner price discovery: calmer markets make it easier to place very large volumes without triggering a “discount spiral.” ▪️ A strong aftermarket: when a flagship IPO trades well, it strengthens confidence in primary markets and can pull more issuers through the window. Of course, banks don’t “make” markets. But they do have a clear incentive to time deals for periods when sentiment, liquidity and demand are supportive — and to reinforce that resilience through investor education, realistic guidance, and a sensible deal structure. My take: precisely because no one wants to miss a once-in-a-generation mandate, it’s easy to see why some investors hope that — at least in the run-up to a potential listing — markets might drift higher and calmer. Not by magic, but because the entire IPO machine needs a good window to function. What do you think matters most for a mega-IPO outcome: market mood, valuation discipline, or deal structure (lock-ups, free float, index timing)? Image by Sherwood Media #stockmarket #capitalmarkets #hedgefunds #SpaceX

There have been 191 IPOs in the US this year… vs. 1,000+ in 2021. For more venture funding to go into companies, it needs to eventually come back out, making IPO exits a critical part of the VC ecosystem. But since 2022, IPOs have been stuck. The average # of IPOs in the US from 2022 to YTD 2024 is down 60% vs. the 5yr period ending ‘21. Capital markets, and the VC industry specifically, are eagerly awaiting a resurgence of IPO activity. Most market participants we speak to expect a surge in tech IPOs to kick off in Q2 ‘25. This sparks the question: what does it take for a company to go public? Like most things in VC, it’s an art & a science. I’ll focus on the science, but the artwork includes needing to have a scaled revenue base (usually $100m+), strong growth with a path to profitability, and a really good story. The science: Preparing a company for an IPO involves many steps. Companies taking these steps may signal their readiness to go public opportunistically when market conditions are ideal. Here are some leading indicators of an IPO, and recent examples from notable VC-backed tech companies (sources below): 🔁 Hiring an experienced public company CFO — + points if this person has taken another VC-backed company public already. Ex: Canva's recent hiring of Zoom's previous CFO. 🏦 Hiring investment banks — a tier 1 bank leading an IPO is usually a positive signal to the market. Ex: Chime hiring Morgan Stanley for a possible 2025 IPO. 🧹 Cap table cleanup — not always a signal, but works in combination with the others. If you’ve been private for 10+ years, you may remove potential downward pressure on your stock by giving would-be sellers a liquidity valve before IPO lockup expiration. Ex: Stripe. 🔎 Rumors of registration statement preparation (S-1, F-1) — going public typically involves months of regulatory paperwork. Starting that process is a signal. Ex: Figma. 🤐 Confidentially filing — allows companies to gather feedback from the SEC on their registration statement without revealing too much about their financial performance to the market. Ex: Klarna. 🔔 Publicly filing — the first time the public can view a company’s registration statement, usually with placeholder IPO terms. But a clear sign the company plans to list imminently. Ex: ServiceTitan. At Caplight, we’ve seen a rise in some of these indicators, which might suggest that the IPO window is about to open. What do you think? Any IPO indicators that we missed? Any companies that should be on this tracker? #venturecapital #liquidity #IPO #unicorns #privatemarkets #goingpublic #IPOwindow #secondarymarkets

Looking at trends from the last year, the biotech IPO market has shifted toward a more disciplined and selective approach, favoring companies with strong clinical-stage progress, clear capital planning, and well defined milestones. 2024 saw a healthier IPO market than the previous year, with 18 biotech IPOs, up from 10 in 2023, but the bar for public offerings has risen. Investors are looking for companies with tangible near-term catalysts, often within a year of going public. Therapeutic focus matters, with CNS, immunology, and oncology dominating the IPO landscape. For biotechs considering an IPO in 2025, strategic preparation is critical. Investors expect financial discipline, a compelling narrative, and a clear path to value creation. Gone are the days when early stage companies could rely on momentum alone. Now, specialist investors demand solid data and thoughtful execution. With generalist investors pulling back and high interest rates shaping the market, the companies that succeed will be the ones that can prove their worth early and often. A biotech IPO isn’t just a funding event, it’s a long term strategy that requires market awareness and a strong scientific and financial foundation. For those preparing to go public, the key question isn’t just ‘can we’, ‘but should we, and how do we make it count?’