Energy Industry Trends

California's gas generation has fallen by more than 60% in just three years. The charts below compare the average daily generation profile in June 2023 and June 2026. They don't show the entire electricity system, the focus is on solar, batteries, imports and gas because this is where the major changes have occurred. Sources such as nuclear, geothermal, wind and bioenergy have been excluded because their contribution has remained relatively consistent. In 2023, gas was one of California's largest sources of electricity throughout the day. By 2026, its role had shrunk dramatically, while batteries are now a major source of evening supply after charging from abundant daytime solar. The negative values in the middle of the day represent battery charging - soaking up increasing amounts of solar generation. In 2023 they also included some electricity exports. Several changes have occurred at once: ✅ So far in 2026, gas generation is down 62% compared with 2023 ✅ Solar generation has increased by 54%, while battery output has increased by more than 300% ✅ California is increasingly shifting abundant daytime solar into the evening using batteries, reducing the need for gas But this isn't simply a story about building more solar or more batteries. It's about how those technologies increasingly work together. Solar generates abundant electricity during the day, while batteries shift more of that electricity into the evening when demand remains high. As solar generation grows, storage is becoming an increasingly important part of the electricity system – steadily reducing the role that gas once played.

Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS): More Than Just "Big Batteries" The exploded-view hierarchy below highlights something often overlooked in discussions about grid-scale energy storage: A modern BESS is not simply a collection of battery cells—it is a highly integrated electromechanical, thermal, power-electronics, and software platform. At the plant level, the Power Conversion System (PCS) serves as the heart of the installation, converting power between the grid and battery system. Modern utility-scale deployments increasingly utilize 1500V DC architectures, medium-voltage PCS designs, and grid-forming inverter capabilities to improve efficiency, support black-start operation, and enhance grid stability. Inside the container, energy density continues to climb. While 2–6 MWh containers have become common, the industry is rapidly moving toward liquid-cooled 5–7+ MWh platforms. Advanced thermal management enables tighter battery packing, improved temperature uniformity, and higher continuous power capability. At the rack and module level, manufacturers are simplifying architectures through cell-to-pack designs, advanced compression systems, and integrated thermal propagation barriers that improve both safety and cost efficiency. At the cell level, LFP remains the dominant chemistry for stationary storage due to: - Long cycle life (6,000–8,000+ cycles) - Superior thermal stability - Reduced cobalt and nickel dependence - Lower total cost of ownership Emerging technologies such as LMFP and sodium-ion batteries are also beginning to appear in pilot deployments, particularly where cost and supply-chain resilience are priorities. Several industry trends are accelerating adoption: • Grid-forming inverters • DC-coupled solar + storage architectures • AI-driven energy management systems • Long-duration storage (4–12+ hours) • Second-life and recycling integration • Factory-built plug-and-play deployments For AI data centers, BESS is evolving beyond backup power. Hyperscalers increasingly use energy storage for demand response, renewable firming, peak shaving, and behind-the-meter energy optimization. As global storage deployments continue growing at more than 40% annually in many markets, the industry's key differentiators are no longer just battery chemistry, they are system integration, software intelligence, thermal management, safety performance, and long-term bankability. The future of energy storage belongs to the companies that can seamlessly integrate power electronics, batteries, thermal systems, controls, and software into a single scalable platform. ✅ Educational purpose only #BESS #EnergyStorage #BatteryTechnology #GridModernization #PowerSystems #LFP #EnergyTransition #RenewableEnergy #AIInfrastructure #DataCenters #ElectricalEngineering #BatteryStorage #GridScaleStorage #UtilityScaleEnergyStorage

A major report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), out today, shows that the transition to net zero emissions would mean lower energy costs globally than if we continue on our current path. Scaling up clean technologies is good for affordability, as well as for cutting emissions. Read more → https://iea.li/3X2JX90   Today’s energy system is failing to deliver affordable energy for all: many millions of people lack access to clean cooking & electricity. In advanced economies, the poorest households spend up to 25% of their income on home energy bills & transport fuel. Explore the full report → https://iea.li/3wUZMUp   Today’s energy system is also not a stable one. The energy crisis caused by Russia slashing natural gas deliveries to Europe led to consumers around the world paying 20% more on average for energy than in past years. The hardest hit were low-income households already struggling to pay bills.   It's tempting – but wrong – to conclude that clean energy transitions will make energy less affordable. IEA analysis shows clean technologies are already the most affordable options for millions of people, especially over the long term. But high upfront costs remain a key hurdle.   In recent years, more governments have enacted policies to help consumers manage these upfront costs, through instruments like grants or tax breaks. Financial support is growing, but in 2023, it reached not much more than one tenth of the value of subsidies for using fossil fuels.   More needs to be done to unlock the huge levels of investment to build a cleaner, more affordable & secure energy system. This is especially the case in emerging economies where investment is lagging behind: today, 85% of clean energy investment is in advanced economies & China.   As energy transitions advance, "cents per kilowatt hour" may well replace "dollars per barrel" as the benchmark for energy affordability. On a path to 1.5°C, the share of oil in total household energy spending falls from 50% today to 20% in 2035. Electricity’s share jumps to 55%.   We don't need to invent new technologies to move to a cleaner & more affordable energy system. IEA's new report, drawing on proven policies from countries worldwide, shows how governments can help make clean technologies more accessible to all. Read it in full, freely available, on our site → https://iea.li/3wUZMUp   And to learn more, join IEA Chief Energy Economist Tim Gould & me for the LIVE launch event from 10:30 CEST → https://iea.li/3KmAlOF

We are witnessing one of the most fascinating paradoxes in modern economic history right now. Despite an administration openly hostile to renewable energy incentives and aggressive federal efforts to roll back clean energy support, the U.S. power grid is experiencing an unprecedented, record-breaking boom.  The newly released ACORE/S&P Global Investment Trends Report and the latest EIA data paint a stunning picture: Total new utility-scale electric capacity is on track to hit a whopping 86 GW in 2026—surpassing the already historic 53 GW added in 2025.  But look closer at what is actually driving this massive expansion: • Solar PV is completely dominating: A staggering 43.4 GW of utility-scale solar is projected for 2026 alone—a 60% year-over-year surge.  • Batteries are scaling exponentially: Utility-scale battery storage is set to jump to a record 24.3 GW this year (up from 15 GW in 2025), with Texas, California, and Arizona leading the charge.  Together, solar and battery storage comprise nearly 80% of all new utility-scale power additions planned for the U.S. grid. When you factor in wind, clean energy technologies account for over 99% of all net-new grid capacity being built this year.  How do we explain record-breaking deployment in a hostile policy environment? 1. As predicted, a “Pre-Expiry" Rush: Developers are racing against the clock. Billions in capital are being deployed aggressively right now to "safe harbor" existing tax credits and establish physical work before federal regulatory rollbacks can fully manifest. 2. The AI & Data Center Demand Shock: The exponential growth of AI data centers that need massive, gigawatt-scale power immediately, and corporate sustainability mandates mean they are willing to pay a premium for emissions-free electrons—effectively subsidizing the gap left by vanishing incentives. 3. Global Capital Consolidating the Market: Deep-pocketed Canadian and European asset managers are stepping in to snap up U.S. renewable portfolios, prioritizing long-term corporate PPAs over short-term political volatility.  The take-away: Policy can shape the speed of the energy transition, but it cannot stop the raw economic fundamentals of a digital economy starving for clean power. That said, while the 2026 pipeline is heavily capitalized and clearing out backlogs, the real test begins post-2027. Prolonged regulatory uncertainty will eventually create an investment cliff once this current wave of safe-harbored projects crosses the finish line. To maintain American energy security and grid reliability, we ultimately need long-term policy stability—not whiplash. What are you seeing on the ground? #CleanEnergy #EnergyPolicy #DataCenters #Solar #EnergyStorage #GridModernization #ACORE

Energy efficiency isn’t just about reducing costs; it’s about building resilience and competitive advantage in a volatile energy world. The latest IEA report shows a paradox: global investment in efficiency is rising, yet progress is only 1.8% annually, less than half the COP28 target of 4%. This gap is a massive opportunity for businesses ready to act. Efficiency is no longer an operational detail; it is a boardroom priority. Organizations that treat it as strategic infrastructure, not overhead, are gaining margins competitors cannot match. Companies implementing energy management systems achieve 11–30% savings in their first year. Industrial motor upgrades boost performance by 40%. Heat pumps cut process energy demand by 75%.  Payback periods run 3 to 5 years for buildings and under 10 for industry. Emerging markets like India and Africa are embedding efficiency into growth strategies, while mature markets offer advanced tech and financing ecosystems. Success means adapting to local dynamics. Digital intelligence is transforming energy audits into real-time decision tools. Efficiency is now risk management, resilience, and a signal of maturity to investors. The companies that act today will define competitive advantage for the next decade.  Let’s accelerate together. 

The 2030 EU wind target is reachable – that is the takeaway from the newly published WindEurope report.   It estimates an additional 200 GW of wind power capacity will be added in the EU between 2024 and 2030. This would bring the total capacity to 393 GW. While still a little shy of the intended 425 GW target, I share Giles Dickson’s optimistic outlook, and how this shows we’re making progress.     2023 saw the record high 16.2 GW of wind capacity installed in the EU, with Germany leading the way. Offshore wind reached new heights, boasting 3.8 GW of capacity installed in Europe last year. We are clearly on the right path. In fact, I would mark last year as a turning point for the industry, which grants us an important baseline to further build upon.    We also witnessed a financial upturn: Offshore wind in Europe, for example, saw 30bn EUR of investments in 2023 – a major upturn in comparison to the previous year and an indication of the potential growth to come. And this development will continue as a huge scale-up of offshore wind is expected towards the end of the decade.   Faster permitting, and increased investments are definitely helping oil the tracks along an upward trajectory.    But we still can – and must – go faster. It will only be possible to further ramp up the pace and in fact reach our goals if we address the challenges we still face. Inflation and high costs are still biting, and the electricity grid poses a looming bottleneck. Thus, we need even greater investment incentives, suitably adjusted political frameworks and further simplification of permitting.    There are positive signals of progress towards targets. But we need to keep adjusting our sails to make the most of the tailwind to further speed ourselves towards them.

For decades, energy progress meant one thing: build more. Today, we’re reaching the limits of that logic. More alone is no longer enough. We're facing a massive decoupling. Energy demand - driven by the force of AI, electrification, and industrial reshoring - is moving at a speed that physical infrastructure and permitting cycles simply cannot match.   This creates a new mandate for leadership. The primary constraint is no longer just generation capacity; it is the intellectual efficiency of the systems we already have.   We see this efficiency coming to life as electrification expands where we use energy, automation drives precision into our operations, and digitalization captures data at every layer. Together, these forces are reshaping energy systems into something far more dynamic than traditional approaches can keep up with.   The result is a shift from static infrastructure to living networks. Buildings, data centers, and industrial sites are no longer passive consumers at the end of a line; they are active participants that use energy technology to generate, store, and intelligently manage the power they need.   To navigate this, we need Energy and Industrial Intelligence.   Energy and Industrial Intelligence works when it’s part of the system. It is about linking trusted data from the physical edge - the actual motors, breakers, and servers - to the strategic layer. When you connect the physical to the digital, you stop guessing where energy is wasted and start orchestrating how it is used.   I shared this perspective recently at Innovation Summit India. My message was clear: We have entered the Era of Intelligence. The next phase of advancing energy technology won’t be defined by how fast we build, but by how intelligently we design, operate, and scale what already exists.   I’ve expanded on how we bridge this gap in my latest article. Link in the comments.   #EnergyTechnology #AdvancingEnergyTech #EnergyIntelligence

China Is Scaling Geothermal District Heating & The World Should Pay Attention When China scales a technology, ignore it at your peril. This isn't geopolitics—it's thermodynamics. By 2019, China had quietly installed over 77 GW of ground-source heat pump capacity for district heating. For perspective, that's more than four times the global geothermal electricity capacity. Full article: https://lnkd.in/g-YVtsrt While the West remains stuck debating gas vs. individual heat pumps, China asks: "How do we drill hundreds of boreholes beneath a football field and heat entire neighborhoods?" And they're doing it—not in pilot projects, but at scale, across campuses, municipalities, and residential districts. By contrast, the west has some great examples, but they remain that. Take Ball State University in Indiana. They replaced coal boilers and chillers with 3,600 boreholes feeding water-to-water heat pumps. The result? Heating and cooling for 47 buildings at a seasonal COP of 3.7—270% more efficient than resistive electric heating. Yes, it's upfront expensive ($83 million), but it's infrastructure built for generations, not election cycles. Similarly, Colorado Mesa University's nearly 500 boreholes have handled extremes from 100°F summers to -20°F winters, achieving COPs of up to 6. Whisper Valley near Austin, Texas, uses community loops, flattening peak demands and reducing costs. Ground-source heat pumps aren't flashy. They're about steady, quiet infrastructure—no combustion, minimal maintenance, zero emissions. Compared to volatile gas prices, impractical biomass, or fantasy hydrogen networks, geothermal loops offer permanent, scalable heating solutions. Gas utilities, take note: your future isn't hydrogen—it's becoming heat utilities. China’s quiet geothermal revolution isn’t just a wake-up call; it’s a blueprint. If you're still betting on gas—or worse, hydrogen—you’re ignoring proven technology that's already heating millions of square meters sustainably and affordably. The question isn't whether geothermal district heating works; it’s why we're still debating it.

🌍 The 2025 World Energy Outlook from the International Energy Agency (IEA) is out! This is always one of my favorite big reports of the year as it really shows the status of the energy sector, key trends and developments, and the implications for the transition and net zero as well as security and investment. Here are my five takeaways from this year’s edition: 1. The transition continues even amid policy divergence Despite the U.S. quitting the Paris Agreement, clean energy momentum remains strong. Renewables set deployment records for the 23rd consecutive year, with solar and wind now meeting most new global demand growth. China, India, and emerging economies continue to drive expansion, while investment in renewables and electrification now accounts for half of global energy investment. 2. The future is electric and bigger than data centers Electricity demand is rising 40–50% by 2035 in all IEA scenarios. Electrification of transport, heating, and industry dwarfs the growth from AI and data centers, which account for less than 10% of new demand. The real challenge is grids: generation investment has surged 70% since 2015, but grid spending lags far behind, creating congestion and slowing connections. 3. Critical minerals are the new oil- to China’s benefit China now refines 19 of 20 strategic energy minerals, averaging 70% global market share, and over half face export controls. The IEA warns that supply concentration, not just fuel dependency, is the next major energy security risk. Diversification and resilience are imperatives for clean energy supply chains. 4. The fossil fuel peak is near, but not near enough Coal and oil demand likely peak before 2030, yet gas continues to rise into the 2030s. Without a rapid and sustained fall in fossil fuel use, global emissions stay far above Paris goals. The IEA projects around 2.5°C of warming under current policies, and overshoot of 1.5°C is now inevitable, even in the Net Zero scenario. 5. If policies stay strong, we will see rapid decarbonization Achieving climate goals depends not just on scaling renewables but on phasing out fossil fuels. Efficiency improvements, faster permitting, stronger grid investment, and transition finance for emerging markets remain essential. The IEA underscores that the tools are known, we just need the market certainty that good policy provides. More to come on the financial and investor implications of the report’s trends for Newsletter subscribers next week! ➡️ Full report here: https://lnkd.in/eRgf45-P #energy #transition #climate #iea #netzero #renewables #electricity #fossilfuels #criticalminerals #electrification #batteries #policy

Energy still shapes global power—but technology now decides who leads. What do you think? Countries with the largest oil reserves (Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Iran, Iraq, Russia, Canada) have long influenced geopolitics. Oil still supplies ~30% of global primary energy, and ~95% of global transportation depends on it. But the real power shift is happening elsewhere. 📊 Why tech, AI, and semiconductors now matter more than reserves AI data centers already consume ~2–3% of global electricity—expected to double by 2030 Advanced semiconductor fabs require: Massive, uninterrupted power Ultra-stable grids Water + energy co-optimization A single leading-edge fab can consume >100 MW—equivalent to a mid-size city 🔌 Energy → Compute → Power Oil-rich countries may control supply, but: Compute-rich countries control productivity Chip-rich countries control AI, defense, and economic scaling Grid-resilient countries control uptime and competitiveness That’s why we see: Oil exporters investing in AI infrastructure, hyperscale DCs, and chip manufacturing Import-dependent nations doubling down on energy efficiency, nuclear, and advanced semiconductors Governments linking energy policy directly to AI and semiconductor sovereignty 🧠 The new power equation ➡️ Energy abundance ➡️ Grid intelligence ➡️ Semiconductor capacity ➡️ AI at scale Oil remains a strategic asset—but AI, semiconductors, and energy-efficient compute are becoming the real levers of global influence. The future belongs to countries that convert energy into intelligence. #Energy #AI #Semiconductors #DataCenters #Geopolitics #EnergyTransition #Compute #TechnologyLeadership #FutureOfEnergy