Job Market Trends Insights

Louder for the people at the back 🎤 Many organisations today seem to have shifted from being institutions that develop great talent to those that primarily seek ready-made talent. This trend overlooks the immense value of individuals who, despite lacking experience, possess a great attitude, commitment, and a team-oriented mindset. These qualities often outweigh the drawbacks of hiring experienced individuals with a fixed and toxic mindset. The best organisations attract talent with their best years ahead of them, focusing on potential rather than past achievements. Let’s be clear this is more about mindset and willingness to learn and unlearn as apposed to age. To realise the incredible potential return, organisations must commit to creating an environment where continuous development is possible. This requires a multi-faceted approach: 1. Robust Training Programmes: Employers should invest in comprehensive training programmes that equip employees with the necessary skills for their roles. This includes on-the-job training, mentorship programmes, online courses, and workshops. 2. Redefining Hiring Criteria: Organisations should revise their hiring criteria to focus more on candidates’ potential and willingness to learn rather than solely on prior experience or formal qualifications. Behavioural interviews, aptitude tests, and probationary periods can help assess a candidate's ability to learn and adapt. 3. Partnerships with Educational Institutions: Companies can collaborate with educational institutions to design curricula that align with industry needs. Apprenticeship programmes, internships, and cooperative education can bridge the gap between academic learning and practical job skills. 4. Lifelong Learning Culture: Encouraging a culture of lifelong learning within organisations is crucial. Employers should provide ongoing education opportunities and support for professional development. This includes continuous skills assessment and access to resources for upskilling and reskilling. 5. Inclusive Recruitment Practices: Employers should implement inclusive recruitment practices that remove biases and barriers. Blind recruitment, diversity quotas, and targeted outreach programmes can help ensure that diverse candidates are given a fair chance. By implementing these measures, organisations can develop a workforce that is adaptable, innovative, and resilient, ensuring sustainable success and growth.

We just published the latest edition of our Recruiting Benchmarks Report. It looks at 165 million applicants, 15 million candidates, and 1.2 million hires over the past 4 years. After digging through the data, here's the story I am seeing: the market is starting to stabilize, but recruiting teams are working harder than ever. Another gradual year of recovery, but uneven. → Overall hiring is up 8.3% year over year. But we're still 30% below 2021 levels.  → Tech companies are still down 40% from their peak. → Here's what stood out: smaller companies under 500 employees are recovering the fastest. They're only ~12% below 2021 levels. If you're at a startup or mid-market company feeling the pressure to hire, you're not imagining it. You really are moving faster than the rest of the market. Teams got leaner and stayed that way. → The average recruiting team size is down 14% compared to 2021.  → The average recruiter now manages 40% more job openings and nearly 2x more applications compared to 2021 Hiring is more intensive and selective. → Interviews per hire are up 33% overall If you're job hunting right now, the data explains why it feels so hard. → Only 0.5% of applicants get hired. One person out of every 200. For context: it's literally harder to land a tech job right now than it is to get into Harvard. → And candidates feel it. Offer acceptance rates are holding at 82% because people have fewer options. When the odds are against you, and you finally get an offer, you probably take it. Your best candidates are already in your database. → 46% of sourced hires in 2025 came from people already in your CRM or ATS. That was only 26% in 2021. → For Engineering & Data Science, it's 48%. For Design, 57%. → Your best pipeline isn't on LinkedIn. It's already sitting in your database. That’s why AI is all the rage in recruiting these days. It's the only way teams can keep up. → When you're processing twice as many applications with fewer people, you find a way to prioritize or you drown.  → When half your best hires are buried in your database, you need AI to surface them.  → When every role requires 33% more interviews, you need AI to make the process more efficient. Full report (with deeper cuts by company size, industry, department and location) in comments

The December #JOLTS report is out this morning now that the government is open again. 📉 Job openings dropped sharply to 6,542,000 in December 2025, falling to the lowest level since September 2020. Openings dropped across a variety of industries including retail (-195,000), finance & insurance (-120,000), professional & business services (-257,000), health care & social assistance (-92,000). 🚨 Is the job opening drop a red alert of sudden deterioration in December? Not quite, in my opinion. For one, the openings series is noisy month-to-month. Additionally, the drop in job openings brings it more in line with the more stable hires and quits data points which have already been sluggish since mid-2024. 🧊 The hires rate ticked up to 3.3% in December, but it remains lower than year ago and sluggish overall (comparable to levels from 2013). Even though job openings have been elevated for much of 2024–5, hires have been sluggish over the same period. That juxtaposition has been particularly galling for workers who feel frozen out of the job market. ➡️ The quits rate was flat at 2% in December. Quits are also largely flat compared to a year ago. The stagnant quits rate is likely a sign employed workers aren't finding opportunities on the open market to step up into a better job. 📈 Layoffs ticked up marginally to 1,782,000 in December. Not a substantial increase, however, layoffs are close to where they were pre-Covid. Despite the constant drip of layoff headlines, layoffs have only been creeping up back to where they were pre-Covid rather than spiking. The sluggish hires rate is likely a better explanation for why workers are so sour on the current job market. Overall, today's JOLTS report looks back at the end of 2025 and reinforces that the job market has been stuck in a rut since mid-2024. Despite a relatively solid unemployment rate, laid off workers and new grads feel frozen out of the job market while employed workers feel frozen in place, unable to progress. #economy #news

Business leaders are grappling with skills shortages and a lack of candidates with relevant experience for in-demand roles. The problem is clear - but fortunately so is the solution: applied learning (or on-the-job training) through reskilling, upskilling, and early career talent programs. The current misalignment between the supply of skilled talent and the demand of employers is at the heart of my latest piece in Fast Company. Co-authored with Opportunity@Work founder & CEO Byron Auguste, we explore the critical opportunity to provide, "huge boosts to business productivity and to the wider economy through pathways that are built for all workers at all stages in their career and educational journey." In this piece, you can learn more about: - The 30 million STARs (workers Skilled Through Alternative Routes, rather than bachelor’s degrees) in the US who already have the skills for roles with at least 50% higher salaries than their current jobs, if employers #TearThePaperCeiling.  - How, according to Multiverse research with The Burning Glass Institute, apprenticeships could move 830,000 people in the US into higher-wage roles, resulting in $28.5 billion more in annual earnings.  - The emerging in-demand roles, including cybersecurity and data analysis, that are increasingly being filled through apprenticeship pathways. This piece underscores the need for the private and public sectors to collaborate and scale these programs - and with skills-based hiring increasingly prominent and various states offering tax credits for workforce training, we are already making strides. As the US economy looks for innovative ways to build new industries, let’s ensure we also build effective pathways to success for workers of all backgrounds, all ages, and all career stages. #FutureOfWork #SkillsGap #TalentDevelopment

Don’t get overly spooked by the rise in the unemployment rate. The labor market is still gliding toward a soft landing. The May 2024 jobs report was a solid one with employers added 272,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4%, but the rise in can almost entirely be chalked up to workers 24 and under, while prime-age employment rose. Payroll gains were not only large but also widespread. But while there is still a lot of strength in the labor market, its ability to continue to deliver robust gains at these levels will likely be challenged going forward as job openings continue to fall and the economy continues to cool. Payroll gains were once again strong, but continue to be particularly robust in a few sectors. Private education and health services, government, and leisure and hospitality once again contributed the lion’s share of gains, responsible for more than 60 percent of May’s gains. But just because these sectors are powering ahead doesn’t mean other sectors are weak. Interest rate-sensitive sectors, including construction and manufacturing, are still adding jobs. The gains are still broad-based with the diffusion index increasing from last month and remaining well above reading of 50 that indicates growth in most sectors. The rise in the unemployment rate and the drop in employment shown in the household survey are less concerning after a deeper look at the data. The headline number shows employment dropping by 408,000, but all of that drop came from workers aged 16-to-24. Similarly, the unemployment rate for this age group jumped by a full percentage point, while the unemployment rate for workers aged 25-to-54 only barely edged up to 3.3%, where it was two months ago. Wage growth did accelerate from last month’s weak reading, with growth overall continuing to slow only very gradually. On the one hand, relatively firm wage growth will continue to boost household balance sheets and consumer spending. On the other, central bankers at the Fed might be concerned about the upside risk to inflation from stronger wage growth. But given strong productivity growth and the likely continued slowdown to come, they shouldn’t be too upset. The labor market has defied expectations for so long that it might seem invincible. But nothing ever is. The current trajectory is positive, but with declining demand for workers, it can’t hold up forever. We should celebrate the current situation but be alert to the fact that moderation can turn into something more painful.

Jobless Claims Fall as Reemployment Slows and Hiring Demand Softens The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims came in at 202,000, below expectations of 212K and down from a revised 211K the prior week. The four week moving average declined to 207,750. Continuing claims increased to 1.841 million, up from 1.816 million. At the same time, the March Challenger report showed that U.S. companies announced over 60,000 job cuts, an increase from the prior month, while JOLTS data has continued to show a gradual decline in job openings. On the surface, this is a stable labor market. Layoffs remain low and initial claims are still sitting in a range that does not suggest broad stress. But the more important signal is in continuing claims. That increase tells us that when people do lose jobs, it is taking longer to find the next one. The labor market is not weakening through layoffs. It is becoming less fluid. That shift is showing up across multiple data points. The Challenger report tracks announced job cuts before they appear in official labor data, and the recent increase suggests companies are becoming more selective in how they manage headcount. At the same time, JOLTS data continues to show fewer job openings, which points to softer hiring demand. Put simply, the labor market is not breaking. It is tightening. And that distinction matters. A spike in layoffs hits quickly and visibly. A slowdown in hiring is quieter, but it changes outcomes over time. It can mean longer job searches, more downward pressure on wages for those switching roles, and less overall mobility. This is what a no hire no fire environment looks like. Companies are holding onto workers, but they are not in a rush to add more. When uncertainty rises, hiring is usually the first place you see it. It is also worth noting that this data reflects conditions before the most recent geopolitical tensions involving Iran. If that uncertainty carries forward, the more likely response is continued hesitation in hiring rather than an immediate increase in layoffs. For the broader economy, this creates a more uneven dynamic. Employment is still supporting spending, but the experience of the labor market is getting more restrictive. Some households will not feel much change. Others will feel it in slower job transitions and fewer options. At Havas Edge, we spend a lot of time on this relationship between layoffs, hiring demand, and reemployment because it tends to show up in consumer behavior before it shows up in the headline economic data.

Economics of a second act: In 2026, founders aren’t raising capital. They’re pricing their past. On April 7, 2026, India’s startup ecosystem saw something unusual. A seed-stage company, no full product, no scale, raised ₹100 Crore at a ₹450 Crore valuation. This wasn’t early-stage risk. This was reputation-backed capital deployment. Because the founder wasn’t new. It was Aman Gupta. And the company? OFF/BEAT Studios, a second act, not a first attempt. ✅ THE NUMBERS - Seed funding raised: ₹100 Crore - Valuation: ₹450 Crore (pre-launch) - Stage: Idea → Early build - Lead investor: Bessemer Venture Partners ✅ The Business Model: Content × AI × Culture While the product isn’t fully public, the direction is clear: 1. AI-powered content ecosystems 2. Creator-led distribution 3. Aspirational, digitally native audience This is a pivot away from hardware. Into something far more scalable: Attention + Algorithms. Because in 2026, content isn’t marketing. Content is the product. ✅ The Founder Premium Let’s be clear. ₹450 Crore isn’t for an idea. It’s for execution history. Built a ₹3,000+ Crore brand with boAt. Mastered mass-premium positioning. Proven distribution + consumer insight. Investors aren’t underwriting the startup. They’re underwriting the founder. This is Founder-Market Fit at scale. ✅ The Serial Entrepreneur Shift This signals a bigger transition in India’s startup ecosystem: 1. First-generation founders → building profitable brands. 2. Second-generation ventures → global-first from Day 1. 3. Capital → moving faster for proven operators. The playbook has evolved. The first company builds credibility. The second company monetises it instantly. ✅ The Hidden Layer: Information Arbitrage The biggest value in this deal isn’t capital. It’s what others don’t have access to: Global benchmarks before India catches up, AI deployment frameworks from mature markets, and pattern recognition across billion-dollar companies, this is how speed compounds. Because in startups, the fastest learner wins. ✅ Let me share the #Rajspectives India’s startup ecosystem is entering a new phase where ideas don’t get funded. Execution history does where capital isn’t scarce, trust is. And once you’ve built trust at scale, you don’t raise money. You command it. #india #startups #venturecapital #ai #funding #Economy #strategy

A welcome rebound The November Jobs report added further evidence of general economic health, reflecting a labor market that is slowing but not nearly grinding to a halt. After a dismal October payroll report complicated by strikes and weather, hiring rebounded by a better-than-expected 227K jobs with positive revisions adding 56K to the last two months combined. 💡 The Fed was widely expected to cut rates by 0.25% later this month, and this report cements that expectation further.   Key takeaways from the report: ➡️   Private sector employment accounted for 85% of job growth this month, driven by strong hiring in health care and social assistance (72K) and leisure and hospitality (53K)—two sectors accounting for roughly 1/3rd of job openings. Retail trade and transportation/utilities shed some jobs, while manufacturing hiring recovered roughly half of last month’s job losses (which included Boeing strike impacts). ➡️   Wages were stable, growing 0.4% on the month and 4% from a year ago. Wage growth continues to outpace inflation, contributing to further gains in household purchasing power. ➡️   Mixed signals from the two surveys do cast some fog on the overall signal here. In the survey of households, labor force participation ticked down and unemployment rose by 161K, a very different picture from the establishment survey’s growth of 227K. This kind of discrepancy is, unfortunately, a new norm. Since last December, household employment shows a decline of 42K, compared to payroll growth of nearly 2 million. Over time, improved data should narrow this gap, and in the meantime, we continue to lean on the “mosaic” of labor market indicators. ➡️   Unemployment may be back at its July level, but it’s not stoking the same fears. When unemployment hit 4.2% in July, it rang alarm bells on recession and inclined the Fed towards a jumbo 50bp cut. Since then, data has shown above-trend GDP growth, jobless claims remain muted, job openings are elevated and ISM purchasing manager surveys suggest employment is modestly improving. ➡️   Still, the uptick in the U-6 unemployment rate bears watching, as an increase in underemployed and discouraged workers could signal underlying labor market strain.   Altogether, stability in wages and the uptick in unemployment tilts the scales further towards a December cut, which markets have upgraded to a ~90% probability following this report. We will watch for progress in CPI after a recent stalling out in disinflation next week, but the bar seems high for a pause. More broadly, despite a shallower easing cycle, above-trend growth, real wage gains, and earnings breadth should provide support for a continued equity rally into the new year.

Is a university degree still worth it in today’s evolving job market? Indian professionals think so. According to the latest insights from LinkedIn’s Workforce Confidence Index, 60% of professionals in India agree that a university degree is necessary for a successful career. Higher education isn’t limited to course work. It helps build resilience, adaptability, critical thinking skills, and a network, says Revathi Srinivasan, Director Education and Group Dean at Singhania Group of Schools. “That social capital often outlasts the degree itself — it prepares students not for today’s runway, but for the unknown skies ahead,” she adds. But degree alone doesn’t cut it. While they provide a strong foundation, “they are no longer the sole differentiator in a market where technology and skills are evolving so quickly,” says Godrej Capital’s CHRO Bhavya Misra. It’s the culture of continuous learning and the ability to adapt that gives a professional the edge, she adds. Srinivasan agrees. “Degrees open doors, but in a skills-first world, they are no longer the final word,” she says. And in addition to credentials, today’s employers seek graduates who can apply knowledge, adapt to situations, and communicate clearly in real-world contexts. LinkedIn data also suggests that skills-first hiring expands talent pools by 11.4x in India. And the real estate and equipment rental services industry could see a 86.4x increase in potential candidates and availability of talent with a skills-based approach, the data finds. So, can removing degree requirements open the door for untapped talent? Yes, says Misra. From a hiring perspective, she shares that broadening the criteria can help recruiters consider talent from “unconventional sources,” and a fair evaluation may help surface the skills most in demand. “Valuing skills, experiences, and potential alongside academic qualifications…this balanced approach ensures we build a more inclusive organisation and we don’t miss out on individuals who can make a strong impact,” she adds. The move towards skill-first hiring also calls for a change in universities. And some have started embracing the shift. From experiential learning to cross-disciplinary exposure, and communication training — universities are “hardwiring adaptability into curricula so graduates can thrive in, and even redefine, the future of work,” says Srinivasan. ➡️ Is a university degree a differentiator in an evolving job market? Share your thoughts in the comments section. 📊: Allie Lewis, LinkedIn Market Research; Silvia Lara, LinkedIn’s Economic Graph ✍️: Dipal Desai, Priyanka Rathod, Rakshit Ravindranathan Methodology: LinkedIn's Workforce Confidence Index is based on a quantitative survey of 1,018 LinkedIn members in India between June 14 and June 25. LinkedIn's skills-based talent pool data is drawn from anonymised and aggregated profile information of LinkedIn members around 58 countries.

This is not a labor market that’s asking whether it’s slowing. It is. Job growth remained sluggish in November, and the unemployment rate climbed to a four-year high, the BLS's latest employment report showed (which offered us only 88% of the current picture, if you will, because the agency not able to compile the household survey for October due to the shutdown). Rather, the more important question: Is the labor market cooling because of supply or demand? If this slowdown is supply-driven, the story is less alarming. In an economy at full employment, the pace of job growth needed to keep unemployment from rising is lower. Some economists estimate that this “breakeven” rate could be as low as 30K-40K jobs per month. On paper, November clears that bar. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 64K. Private payrolls were up 69K last month, following a 52K gain in October. But there's also fragility. Job growth across other sectors wasn’t strong enough to offset a 162K drop in federal employment in October. Outside of healthcare and construction, hiring is flat or negative. Manufacturing payrolls are at their lowest level since March 2022. The BLS said there's been "little net change" in employment since April. The three-month average is now just 22K jobs; the six-month average is 20,000. If the breakeven pace is truly 30K-40K, that’s not enough to keep unemployment from drifting higher. And it has: The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, up from 4.4% in September. Interpreting this moment is hard because history offers few comparisons. There are only four periods when unemployment has been this low, and by historical standards, 4.6% would be considered healthy. Yet, it's clear that more workers are stuck on the sidelines. In November, both the unemployment rate, at 4.6%, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.8 million, were little changed from September. But these measures are higher than last November, when the jobless rate was 4.2%, and the number of unemployed people was 7.1 million. Americans are already feeling more pessimistic. About a third (32%) of Americans think their finances will get worse next year, a new Bankrate survey finds. That's the highest in eight years of polling. There are arguments on both sides of the demand vs. supply debate, and how Fed officials lean will shape whether they support another rate cut in January. One of the most striking moments from the Fed’s December meeting was Chair Jerome Powell’s admission that job growth may already be negative. Based on recent benchmark revisions, the Fed assumes payrolls could be overstated by roughly 60K jobs per month, implying underlying job losses of about 20K. But with inflation still stubborn, the cost of getting that diagnosis wrong is high. What do you think: Is this the labor market cooling because of weaker demand — or a supply-constrained economy doing what it does at full employment? https://lnkd.in/en5nwECt