Education Sector Consulting

Higher education is entering a period of meaningful disruption, as enrollment pressures, cost imbalances, and shifting public sentiment reshape the landscape. What was once a stable sector is now facing structural challenges that are difficult to reverse, with implications extending into municipal credit markets. Here's what you need to know: • Public sentiment has shifted meaningfully, with a majority of Americans questioning the value of a four-year degree. • Revenue growth is failing to keep pace with rising expenses, compressing already thin operating margins. • Structural constraints, including tenure-driven cost rigidity, limit institutions’ ability to adapt. • Policy changes and funding pressures are adding further strain across the sector. • Within municipal markets, credit differentiation is critical as weaker issuers face increasing risk. How are you thinking about the higher education crunch and its implications for investors? Read more: https://lnkd.in/gNX5HxUi

The most interesting thing about the new enrollment report is not that enrollment is up. It is where students are showing up. New data from the National Student Clearinghouse shows growth at community colleges and public universities, with certificates and associate degrees outpacing bachelor’s programs. Private colleges continue to lose ground. That pattern tells a clear story about how people are thinking about college right now. Confidence in higher education is rising, but it is no longer automatic. Students and families are choosing pathways that feel affordable, flexible, and clearly connected to opportunity. This is not rejection of college. It is a demand for value. This report feels less like a rebound and more like a signal about the future of higher education. https://lnkd.in/gPCtJ5eb

Deloitte just dropped its 2026 Higher Education Trends report, and if you work in or adjacent to higher ed, it deserves a close read. The headline: "America's higher education sector is poised for reinvention as declining enrollment, university funding cuts, advancing AI, and evolving regulations reshape the college landscape." Here are the five trends shaping what comes next — and what I believe they mean for institutions willing to move: 1. The revenue model is eroding. The demographic cliff is real and uneven. The map below tells the story — the West is down 20%, the Northeast down 17%, and states like California (−29%), Illinois (−32%), and Hawaii (−33%) facing generational declines. The South is the only region projected to see growth. Institutions still operating on pre-2020 enrollment assumptions need a new plan. 2. The conversation has to shift from "cost of college" to "value of a credential." Students are increasingly asking one question: Will this get me a job? Deloitte cites Gallup data showing job/career outcomes outrank every other reason for attending college by nearly 3x. And yet, only 12% of non-degree credentials lead to meaningful earnings gains. The programs that survive will be the ones that can demonstrate ROI — clearly, credibly, in real time. 3. Federal research funding is in free fall. The government provides $50B in annual research funding. Philanthropy covers $5B. That gap cannot be closed by donors. Research universities are already cutting staff, freezing hiring, and reducing PhD admissions. The institutions that adapt fastest — with leaner structures and more transparent cost models — will be best positioned when the dust settles. 4. Mergers and partnerships are no longer a last resort. 19% of college presidents are already having internal merger conversations. Deloitte is clear: institutions that wait too long won't be attractive targets. The challenge isn't just operational — it's cultural. Merged entities that fail to function as one unit destroy more value than they create. 5. The global landscape is shifting. International students represent roughly 6% of U.S. enrollment and often pay full tuition. That revenue is at risk. Institutions that don't build a proactive global strategy — including branch campuses and international partnerships — will feel the impact. #HigherEducation #HigherEd #OnlineLearning #EdTech #AI #InstructionalDesign #OnlineProgramManagement #EnrollmentCliff #HigherEdTrends #FutureOfWork #CredentialValue #UniversityLeadership #AcademicInnovation #iDesign https://lnkd.in/gi36bsMe

Fall 2024 IPEDS data are out, and the story is quieter (and more interesting) than the headlines suggest. Yes, total U.S. higher ed enrollment grew again in Fall 2024. But the IPEDS census data show a modest, uneven recovery, not a broad-based rebound - and a much more restrained picture than early Clearinghouse estimates implied. A few top line takeaways: * Enrollment is up for the second straight year, but still well below pre-2019 levels. * Community colleges and private nonprofit four-years are driving most of the growth, but much of the 2-year rebound is tied to dual enrollment with very different economics than traditional students. * Despite all the backlash to “Zoom U,” online participation remains structurally elevated. More than half of all students now take at least one online course, well above the pre-pandemic trend line. Taken together, the data suggest higher ed hasn’t “bounced back.” Instead, it’s settling into a new equilibrium: fewer students overall than a decade ago, more hybrid participation than ever, and recovery that varies sharply by sector. I’ve shared the full Fall 2024 IPEDS profile, continuing an annual data series I’ve published since 2012, with charts, sector breakouts, and long-term trend context here: 👉 https://lnkd.in/guBVaiWi

"2024 EDUCAUSE Horizon Report: Teaching and Learning Edition" = AI Section The report explores the current and emerging trends, challenges, and opportunities in teaching and learning, focusing on the transformative role of AI in higher education. It highlights the social, technological, economic, environmental, and political impacts of AI: 1. Social Trends: AI influences communication, socioemotional skills, and social norms, offering opportunities for improved accessibility but also risks of loneliness and distorted self-perception.    2. Technological Trends: AI is reshaping pedagogy by facilitating personalized learning, boosting engagement, and enhancing assessments, but it also raises concerns about misuse and ethics. 3. Economic Trends: AI's impact on productivity and workforce skills is significant, creating both job opportunities and displacement risks. 4. Environmental Trends: While AI can combat climate change and promote sustainability, its adoption raises concerns about energy consumption and carbon emissions. 5. Political Trends: AI plays a growing role in governance and political processes, creating opportunities for efficiency but also risks such as misinformation and reduced trust in institutions. Key technologies and practices include finding appropriate uses for AI, supporting AI fluency, ensuring equitable learning environments, protecting data privacy, and addressing misinformation and mental health challenges. The report concludes with potential scenarios for the future of higher education: growth driven by workforce needs, collapse due to political challenges, constraint from data restrictions, and transformation through individualized learning approaches. ---  Tensions and Contradictions 1. Balancing Innovation and Equity: While AI can personalize learning and enhance accessibility, it risks widening the digital divide and leaving behind those without access to technology or digital literacy skills. 2. Productivity vs. Displacement: AI's potential to automate tasks and boost efficiency contrasts with concerns about job displacement and the need for workforce reskilling. 3. Sustainability Challenges: AI's promise in addressing climate change is contradicted by its own growing carbon footprint, raising questions about its environmental cost-benefit. 4. Autonomy vs. Control: The integration of AI in political and governance processes can enhance decision-making but also leads to concerns about misuse, misinformation, and reduced human agency. 5. Ethics and Regulation: The rapid pace of AI development often outstrips the creation of ethical guidelines and regulations, leading to uncertainty and risks of misuse in education and beyond. These tensions highlight the need for strategic planning and policy-making to ensure that AI's benefits are maximized while its challenges are mitigated. https://lnkd.in/eHhaGDVt

How Will Recent Executive Orders Transform Higher Education? Dive into My New In-Depth Analysis The Trump Administration’s executive orders (issued since January 2025) are already reshaping the higher education landscape. From research funding freezes and new accreditation rules to DEI rollbacks and immigration barriers, these policy shifts are impacting universities in profound ways. In my latest report, I provide a comprehensive, evidence-based analysis of: - University Funding: How federal research grants, student aid, and institutional support are changing. - Faculty Job Security: The ripple effects of revised DEI mandates, hiring freezes, and tenure challenges. - Research Careers: Potential “brain drain” issues, immigration hurdles for international scholars, and future outlook on global academic collaboration. - DEI Policy Reversals: The rollback of affirmative action requirements, implications for campus climate, and legal ramifications. - Regulatory Changes: New compliance burdens, accreditation shake-ups, and shifts in Title IX enforcement. Why read this report? - Get a deep, nuanced understanding of the evolving policy environment. - Discover how universities, faculty, and policymakers can respond strategically. - Learn about possible legal challenges and state-level countermeasures. Who is it for? - University leaders looking to safeguard funding, faculty, and student well-being. - Policymakers shaping the future of federal and state-level education. - Academics, researchers, and students striving to navigate new career uncertainties. I invite you to download and read the full PDF attached for all the details, including recommendations and references. Let’s start a conversation on how higher ed can adapt and stand resilient through these shifting tides. Comment your thoughts or questions below, and feel free to share this post with colleagues who might benefit from these insights. #HigherEducation #DEI #Trump

China's outbound student numbers just dropped to their lowest point in a decade. Are you still counting on it as your main APAC source market? China's Ministry of Education just released outbound student mobility data for the first time in five years: only 570,000 Chinese students studied internationally in 2025, a near 20% drop from the 2019 peak, back to 2016 levels. The reasons are structural, not temporary. ▪️ Chinese families are demanding clearer ROI. The average study abroad budget now exceeds £65,000, and they're asking harder questions about career outcomes. ▪️ Domestic options have improved significantly, making international degrees less of an automatic advantage. ▪️ Visa tightening in the US, UK, Canada and Australia has pushed students to reconsider traditional destinations. Australia alone saw a 39% drop in Chinese applications in February 2026. ▪️ Almost 9 in 10 Chinese graduates now return home, further eroding the perceived premium of studying abroad. China isn't going away as a market. But if you want Chinese students today, you need genuinely compelling USPs, not just a ranking or a recognizable name. More importantly, Asia is not just China. Other APAC markets are producing growing pools of internationally mobile students, many of them actively looking for alternatives to the US, UK and Australia. These students are younger in their decision journey, often agent-advised, and highly responsive to the right value proposition. European universities that diversify their APAC recruitment strategy now, rather than doubling down on a single-source market, will be better positioned in the years ahead. Platforms like Euroversities are built exactly around this idea, connecting European institutions with vetted agents across the full APAC region. The opportunity in Asia hasn't shrunk. It's just moved. Polly Nash | Charles Sun | eduALTO #highereducation #intled #euroversities #China #StudentMobility

The number of college-age students in the U.S. is set to decline for the next 15+ years. A recent Atlantic article from Jeff Selingo captured the stakes: fewer high school graduates will intensify competition and force hard decisions across the sector. This is a real structural shift that is (and will continue to) force institutions to rethink how they recruit, retain and deliver value. At the same time, I disagree with the most doom-and-gloom read of the “demographic cliff.” Higher education has been a durable force for decades—expanding access, fueling mobility, and evolving through economic cycles and societal change. The question isn’t whether higher ed will persist, but how it will keep adapting to serve a more diverse set of learners. Enrollment pressure will amplify the question that has already been building for years: why should a student enroll, and what outcomes can they expect? Students are increasingly evaluating college through a labor market lens: • Total cost and ROI • Time to completion • Flexibility for work and life • Job outcomes and earning potential For many students, especially the nearly 40% that are older than 25, these factors outweigh traditional drivers like the campus experience and are shaping both enrollment choices and persistence. This is where the demographic shift becomes a moment of clarity. Institutions that make learning more transparent, relevant, and connected to career and life outcomes will be best positioned. How are you seeing institutions respond, both to near-term enrollment pressures and to the longer-term opportunity to clarify and strengthen the value of higher ed?

Adapting to the demographic cliff... Higher Ed institutions face a growing economic challenge, including reduced enrollment numbers, shifting student demographics, and funding cuts. As pressures intensify, many universities struggle to remain financially stable, thus inclined to freeze or reduce their offerings instead of exploring flexible and responsive models. This conservative tendency restricts innovation and reduces the scope of potential college experiences, particularly if institutions cling to traditional success metrics that no longer align with real-world needs. For K-12 systems, these developments raise thoughts about whether our current benchmarks for post-grad success are preparing students for the future. If higher education becomes less adaptable, our students may face fewer opportunities for meaningful engagement with evolving career pathways. This possibility underscores the need to revisit our assumptions around college readiness and career readiness...ensuring we expand our definitions of student success to include new and emerging educational and workforce trends. Considerations: 1. Indicators: This should cause us to think about evaluating how we measure post-graduation success. Traditional metrics don't capture the increasing diversity of student pathways. By adjusting indicators, we can better position students to thrive the shifting higher education landscape. 2. Fluidity and Adaptability: Rather than mirroring the “frozen” approach of some universities, consider modeling fluid strategies...offering students multiple academic and career pathways, early exposure to various post-secondary options, and robust real-world learning opportunities. 3. Partnerships: Our future depends on proactive collaboration with higher ed partners to help us stay current on shifting college requirements and emerging workforce needs. Ed Leaders must champion partnership agreements that provide dual-credit courses, technical certifications, and project-based learning so students develop the necessary skills to excel in various post-high school settings. 4. Vision: In alignment with our commitment to continuous improvement and strategic leadership, we must anticipate long-term trends to guide the district to respond thoughtfully. We must think deeply, ask good questions, and be reflective thought partners! The article reminds us that higher education’s traditional playbook may not remain viable in the coming years...which in turn compels us to rethink, update, and refine our definitions of post-graduation readiness. We all play a pivotal role in promoting forward-thinking policies, ensuring that our districts remain nimble and well-prepared for the future our students will inherit. By embracing fluidity, nurturing community partnerships, and recalibrating success metrics, we can position our graduates to flourish in an evolving economic landscape. https://lnkd.in/gHbECH_V The Hechinger Report