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Here is my year end view on the macros. I wrote it down to see what it means for our business. It might be useful for both your company's as well as your own professional priorities for 2026 #Geopolitics -The world is shifting from Unipolar → Bipolar → Multipolar, fundamentally reshaping trade, security, and culture. - Resilience is overtaking efficiency, with global supply chain redesigns becoming a priority. - Nationalism and protectionism will continue to be central political tools. - AI-led energy demand increases the probability of new conflict among/with oil rich countries. #Economy - Market structures are concentrating, with just 10 U.S. companies dominating profit pools and market cap. - Rapid de-conglomerization and competitor consolidation are reshaping industrial sectors. - A long cycle of high interest rates will continue to pressure corporate capex and private equity models. - AI-related capex is set to dominate global infrastructure investment. #AI - AI is delivering real productivity gains to individual knowledge workers. - Enterprise AI adoption will be slower across complex workflows and legacy processes. - The next major acceleration may need a meaningful innovation leap, not just iteration. - As intelligence commoditizes, humans will shift focus toward “influence,” orchestration, and execution. #EmergingMarkets - New global manufacturing clusters are rapidly emerging across developing economies. - India reaching USD 3,000 per capita marks the “mass affluent” ignition point. - Digital public infrastructure + fewer regulatory and security frictions may make emerging markets faster AI adopters. We are operating in a world where geopolitics is more fragmented, capital is concentrating, AI productivity is unevenly distributed, and emerging markets are gaining momentum. Companies and individuals will have to tweak their priorities to adjust to these macro trends Zinnov #Macrotrends #2026

This week’s inflation report, though market constructive, continued to underscore the bifurcation taking place between the goods and services sectors of the economy. Key things to note:   *While services inflation remains high in absolute terms, its growth is now downward sloping and is helping to keep core CPI contained. See below, but our forecast is that real incomes are starting to turn positive across a wider swath of U.S. consumers. That is a good thing. That said, we are not out of the woods yet as we expect continued volatility in goods inflation in the coming months, driven by tariffs, wildfires, and outbreaks of bird flu.   *In light of these upward pressures on goods prices, we have adjusted our 2025 headline CPI forecast slightly to 2.8%, up from 2.6% (vs. consensus of 2.5%). Importantly, Fed tightenings and easings are not affecting financial conditions as much as in the past. Key to our thinking is that many of the big corporate capex spenders don’t have as much debt on their balance sheet this cycle. On the interest rate front, we stick with two cuts this year, while we expect the 10-year to trade in the 4.5-4.75% range.    Bigger picture, while our Regime Change thesis does not foresee runaway inflation, we still see a higher resting heart rate this cycle, marked by increased variability due to 1) larger deficits; 2) geopolitical tensions; 3) a complex energy transition; and 4) persistent inflationary trends. At KKR we spend time on longer-term trends, which suggest the following mega-themes:   1. Productivity Enhancements: As input costs, including wages, rise, companies will increasingly prioritize resource allocation toward boosting productivity. 2. Capitalize on Diverse Opportunities: We are strategically targeting both capital-heavy and capital-light investments across sectors such as insurance, consumer receivables, and housing, as well as through corporate carve-outs, particularly in Private Equity and Infrastructure. 3. Supply Chain Resilience: Corporations are seeking greater resilience in global supply chains, emphasizing the security of data, transportation, water, and energy. As the global economy shifts toward more regional models, the need for investment in these areas could reach trillions of dollars. 4. Picks and Shovels of AI: We anticipate substantial government investment aimed at securing energy sources. The demand for data centers, pipelines, cooling technologies, and related services is set to grow significantly, driven by a mega-theme where nearly 25% of total tech capital expenditure originates from the Mag7. 5. Collateral-Backed Cash Flows: We remain positive on investments that generate collateral-based cash flows within Infra, Asset-Based Finance, certain Real Estate sectors, and specific Energy segments. In a rising nominal GDP environment, we expect these assets to appreciate in value, leading to potential multiple expansions across this thematic. Read more at https://go.kkr.com/42dBKkM

The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz may dominate headlines, but the ripple effects run much deeper and won’t fade quickly, even if tensions ease. In the new edition of Macro Signposts, I explore these topics: • Energy prices may stay elevated for months. Shipping bottlenecks, infrastructure damage, inventory restocking, and sticky risk premiums all point to a slower recovery than markets are pricing. • U.S. tax relief is underdelivering for many households. Early estimates projected average refund increases of $800–$1,000 versus last year, but the reality is closer to $300 – with most of the benefit flowing to higher-income filers who itemize deductions. • The K-shaped U.S. economy is deepening. Energy producers gain, while lower- and middle-income households – already stretched by stagnant real incomes and rising delinquencies – absorb most of the hit from higher energy prices. Resilient aggregate data will continue to mask what’s happening beneath the surface of the U.S. economy. The divergence is real and it’s growing. Read the full analysis here: https://bit.ly/4u6yuT6

🔍 What if your $1B endowment could access the same investment firepower as Harvard or Yale—without moving to New York or Boston? That’s exactly what Rip Reeves and LSU Foundation did, and the results are impressive. 💡 The OCIO Advantage - LSU partnered with Cambridge Associates, giving them world-class research and access to top-tier investments—even from Baton Rouge. “You basically rent a global team of hundreds,” says Rip. 👉 Why? - Smaller pools can’t attract the same talent internally. OCIO lets you punch above your weight. 📊 Portfolio Magic - 40% stocks, 30% bonds, 30% alternatives. Sound familiar? It’s the Yale Endowment Model—evolved. 👉 Why? - Wide guardrails, not rigid rules. Flexibility is key for outperformance. 🌍 Global Access, Local Roots - Even with just $1B, LSU gets into deals and funds that would otherwise be out of reach—thanks to pooled allocations and volume discounts. 🤝 Building Relationships Rip Reeves shares how he vets managers: - In-person office visits (arrive early, listen to hallway chatter) - Sports games, dinners, and casual meetups (see how they really are) - Reputation checks (what do others say behind their back?) 💬 Best Practices for GPs - Be cool, not pushy. - Follow up with a warm call, not a cold pitch. - Join events where real relationships form. - Be transparent about your goals. 🚀 Why This Matters - 90% of portfolio performance comes from asset allocation—not manager selection. Are you optimizing yours? Or are you just chasing “sexy” managers? #Finance #Investing #AssetManagement #Investmentstrategy #Innovation #CIO Link to Podcast in Comments Below 👇

You can withdraw ₹12 lakh per year from mutual funds and pay zero tax. This isn’t a hack or a jugaad. Let me explain. The first thing most people think about when it comes to withdrawal is SWP. But you’re wrong. Here’s IDCW- IDCW stands for Income Distribution cum Capital Withdrawal. IDCW is added to your total income and taxed as per slab. So if your total income (including IDCW) stays within ₹12 lakh, there’s no tax payable under the new tax regime. This makes IDCW surprisingly useful in low-income years — retirement, sabbaticals, or transition phases. SWP stands for Systematic Withdrawal Plan. With SWP, only the capital gains portion is taxed. But equity capital gains are tax-free only up to ₹1.25 lakh per year. Beyond that, tax kicks in. SWP works better when you already have salary, rental or business income and fall in higher slabs. The real takeaway There’s no “better” option between IDCW and SWP. • Low-income years → IDCW • High-income years → SWP Same fund. Same corpus. Smarter withdrawals = higher post-tax returns. This is where real wealth planning begins — not at fund selection, but at exit planning. ⸻ If you want help designing a tax-efficient income strategy, DM me or comment “PLAN” and I will reach out to you. Alternatively you can also reach out at partha@advisoira.com or visit www.advisoira.com

This is how I saved ₹1.2 Lakhs tax on Stock Gains 💰 As per the Income Tax Act, individuals are required to pay capital gains taxes on profits accrued from stock investments, with rates varying based on the duration of holding. However, there exists a strategic approach that can potentially enable investors to mitigate or entirely eliminate short-term capital gains tax liabilities. My method involves strategically selling underperforming stocks before the end of the fiscal year, typically before 31st March, thereby realizing short-term capital losses. By offsetting these losses against any short-term capital gains, I effectively minimize my tax burden and save 15% (plus 4%) in STCG taxes. Following the sale, I promptly repurchase the same stocks on 1st April and reset my investment portfolio. This approach is known as 𝐓𝐚𝐱 𝐇𝐚𝐫𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠, and it not only optimizes tax efficiency but also allows for continued participation in the market's potential upside. You still have time to leverage this proactive strategy to enhance your financial position and minimize tax liabilities intelligently. 🌱📈 #tax #finance #stockmarket #incometax #personalfinance #contentcreation

Blanchard on 40 Years of Macroeconomics: Lessons, Debates, and What Lies Ahead Olivier Blanchard offers a compelling overview of how macroeconomic thought has evolved over the past four decades. His essay serves as both a historical reflection and a forward-looking analysis, covering the convergence in methodology, shifts in policy thinking, and ongoing debates about the drivers of economic fluctuations. One of the most thought-provoking sections explores nominal rigidities and their central role in shaping business cycles. Blanchard makes a strong case that when monetary policy faces constraints, these rigidities become crucial in explaining why real interest rates often fail to adjust quickly enough to sustain full employment. This lens puts aggregate demand back at the center of macroeconomic dynamics. He also revisits the rise of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models—acknowledging their theoretical contributions, while highlighting their limitations in practical policymaking. Instead, he argues for a continued role for semi-structural and econometric models, especially when it comes to informing real-world decisions. With historical depth and clarity of thought, this essay is essential reading for anyone interested in understanding where macroeconomics has been—and where it might be heading next.

For allocators… Here are a few things that we’ve run into recently and worth a reminder. 1. The purpose of an endowment can differ, though most university endowments prioritize growth (to help with costs). If so, then an allocation either needs to increase returns to the upside or shield returns to the downside. We all know about the benefits of uncorrelated returns. But if the strategy has an excellent risk adjusted return and doesn’t do either of the above, that doesn’t help achieve the objective. It might be helpful to have good risk-adjusted strategies to pull from to the downside, but most endowment teams don’t get credit for lower returns with a good Sharpe ratio. A piece of paper is also completely uncorrelated with other investment strategies, but it doesn’t help achieve the goal. 2. In one of our strategies, our experienced 3yr annualized returns were 250 bps better than the GP’s composite annualized returns over the same period of time…only because of allocating to/from effectively. It’s a commingled strategy with quarterly liquidity and our allocation decisions were not overmuch in frequency or size (+/-20%). It has been the case that the sector has been volatile. But it demonstrates that excellent manager selection and effective allocation decisions can have approximately the same impact on a portfolio. If that is true, then equal time should be spent on both activities. 3. A takeaway from both of the above is that the marketable side of the book must be liquid enough to take advantage of the manager’s demonstrated capability (to the upside or downside) in order to allocate effectively. Lengthy lockups in volatile sectors effectively eliminate any gains an allocator could generate from allocating between strategies. Thus, there should be a higher hurdle rate in making the go/no-go decision on longer lock strategies to incorporate the “allocation returns” one is giving up in acquiescing to such terms. For most of us in the university endowment space, this isn’t the start of a new year, but the halfway point of the current fiscal year. Onward!

🚀 EY Macroeconomics Team presents its September 2023 US Executive Briefing: Navigating the "High for Longer" Economic Landscape 🔍 Outlook: With real GDP on track to grow robustly in Q3, a recession isn’t on the near-term horizon, but the economy faces imminent risks. The quadruple threat from the resumption of student loan payments, a government shutdown, a strike by auto union workers and rising oil prices could significantly weigh on GDP growth in Q4 and add to downside risks already impacting the economy including elevated prices, rising interest rates and tighter credit conditions. We see real GDP growing 2.2% in 2023 and expanding at a muted 1.3% pace in 2024, though a gradual rebound in economic momentum is expected in the second half of next year. 🛠️ Labor Market Cooling: Labor supply and demand are coming into better balance. We continue to expect further hiring freezes and strategic resizing decisions along with some continued moderation in nominal wage growth in the coming months, but we don’t anticipate a severe employment pullback. We see the unemployment rate stabilizing rising toward 4.0% by year-end and rising to around 4.4% by the end of 2024. 🛒 Consumer Crosswinds: Consumers are becoming more conservative with their spending as they continue to face a trifecta of headwinds including elevated inflation, higher interest rates and slowing labor market and income gains. We anticipate consumer spending will advance 2.5% in 2023 and register muted growth of 1.3% in 2024. 💹 Still Disinflating: While the free disinflationary lunch is over, the slowdown in core inflation momentum remains encouraging. We see headline inflation easing to 3.2% y/y in December while core CPI inflation is likely to ease toward 3.8% y/y by year-end. 🏦 High for Longer: The Fed left the policy rate unchanged in a range of 5.25%-5.50% at its September policy meeting but maintained a hawkish bias by preserving the optionality for further tightening this year and strongly signaling that interest rates will stay high for longer over the coming years. Given the increased Fed hawkishness, we have pushed back our first 25bps rate cut expectation to June 2024, and we anticipate 75bps of rate cuts in 2024 (down from 100bps previously). ⚠️ Risks: A robust labor market could backfire, possibly prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive measures. Add to this the potential of a government shutdown, student loan resumptions, and UAW strikes, and the waters get murkier. Global growth slowdowns, energy price spikes, and a surging dollar add layers to this intricate web. 💡 For consistent insights and updates, be sure to subscribe: https://lnkd.in/e3shAKdz A big thanks to my team: Lydia Boussour, Marko S. Jevtic, Dan Moody, Henry Gao, Ritik Shrestha via EY-Parthenon #USEconomy #LaborMarket #ConsumerTrends #Fed #Inflation #EconomicOutlook #Risks

Our most recent outlook marks a decisive turning point in the global macro landscape: What began with “Riders on the Storm,” and evolved into “Stretching the Limits” in 2025 has now entered the “Fog of War”. Our latest Global Macroeconomic & Capital Markets outlook highlights a stagflationary impulse driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. We now anticipate slower growth, more persistent inflation and rising fiscal pressures across advanced economies, with global GDP revised down to +2.6% in 2026. 📉 Central banks face a delicate balancing act: the Fed is expected to remain on hold, while the ECB may tighten once before pausing as growth softens. Markets have already shifted into a risk-off stance , with higher yields, weaker equities and a stronger USD. ⚖️ Vulnerabilities are building across economies, corporates and households, as cost pressures and softer demand weigh on activity. Insolvencies are likely to rise, while downside risks remain firmly tilted to the horizon 👀. The comprehensive publication and slide deck at your fingertips ➡️ https://lnkd.in/eaFZ88EJ #Ludonomics #AllianzTrade #Allianz