Geopolitical Risks in Business

During my time serving in government, I saw firsthand how geopolitics can impact energy production and flows, with cascading impacts on market and macroeconomic trends.   We're already seeing this play out following the last few days in the Middle East. U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered retaliatory action across the region that has disrupted energy production and transit.   The market reaction is changing quickly. Since I recorded this video on Monday, oil and gas prices have jumped further, and equities have shifted toward a risk-off move as investors price in continued escalation. Bonds sold off further, reflecting inflation fears in developed markets. Due to the segmented nature of natural gas markets, the impact of higher prices will hit regions differently, with Europe more exposed than the U.S. to elevated LNG prices.   The central question: will this remain a short-term volatility spike or evolve into a broader supply shock? The duration of the disruption and the severity of transit impacts are the core variables I'm watching.   ⬇️ Watch the full video for my latest take on what this could mean for markets.

Kenya’s avocado exporters are learning the hard way, Logistics isn't just a cost center. It's a make-or-break factor. With the Red Sea route no longer safe, ships are rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. That one change has triggered a chain reaction: 🔄 Transit times have nearly doubled What took 22 days to Europe now takes 40+ and avocados aren’t built for that kind of delay. 💰 Transport costs have spiked Freight rates are up. Surcharges are in play. And every extra day in transit is driving up the final price per kilo. ❌ Fruit quality is compromised Even with Controlled Atmosphere containers, We’re seeing more claims, more rejections, and shrinking profit margins. So, the real question is no longer “How do we make up for these losses?” It’s: “How fast can we pivot?” Here’s where exporters must look next: ➡️ Shorter, faster markets – The Gulf. North Africa. Southern Africa. Less transit time. Less risk. More predictability. ➡️Processed products – Pulp, frozen avocado, oil. Stable shelf life. Higher margins. No race against ripening. ➡️Cold chain efficiency – From packhouse to port, every hour matters. Infrastructure is no longer a ‘nice-to-have.’ The Red Sea disruption won’t be the last. But it should be the loudest wake-up call yet. If we keep relying on one route, one product, and one market, we're not exporting. We're gambling. PS: Are we ready to pivot?

When a former MI6 chief says the world is “more unstable than at any point in his 38-year career,” the private sector should pay attention. In one of his first interviews since stepping down, Richard Moore (“C”) laid out a reality intelligence professionals have been tracking for years: - China is simultaneously the West’s greatest opportunity and greatest intelligence challenge. - Russia remains volatile, aggressive, and undeterred. - AI, surveillance, and cyber operations have turned espionage into an arms race. - And leaders like Xi are watching whether the West has the resolve to hold its line. That’s the geopolitical picture. But here’s the part that should concern U.S. businesses the most (I am talking to you, friends): The threats Moore is worried about are already aimed at the U.S. private sector. Many companies just don’t realize it. Nation-states don’t only target governments anymore. They target: - supply chains - data-rich enterprises - emerging tech firms - IP-heavy startups - universities - critical infrastructure - and anyone sitting on the innovations that shape the future And yet too many executives still view geopolitics as “a Washington issue.” It’s not. It’s an organizational risk issue at the board-level, culture-level and talent-level and it’s already inside your organization whether you see it or not. As someone who’s worked in human intelligence, I can tell you this: Everything Moore described on the global stage has a direct, daily parallel inside American companies. The tactics get blended with AI. The insiders get subtler. The targeting gets broader. And the private sector remains, in many cases, unprepared. My message to U.S. leaders (i.e. my foot stomp): You’re already in the intelligence arena, even if you don’t want to be. And the organizations that succeed in the next decade won’t be the ones with the most tech. They’ll be the ones with the strongest situational awareness. Let’s be proactive, shall we?? #NationalSecurity #CyberSecurity #InsiderRisk #Geopolitics #Leadership #AI #Espionage #CorporateSecurity #RiskManagement Source: Bloomberg

ISW has highlighted "America’s stark choice in UKR and the cost of letting RUS win". “The current US debate about providing additional military assistance to UKR is based in part on the assumption that the war will remain stalemated regardless of US actions. That assumption is false. The RUS is breaking out of positional warfare and beginning to restore maneuver to the battlefield because of the delays in the provision of US military assistance to UKR. UKR cannot hold the present lines now without the rapid resumption of US assistance, particularly air defense and artillery that only the US can provide rapidly and at scale. [...] The RUS are pressing their advantage and advancing slowly but steadily on several sectors of the front. [...]. RUS advances will accelerate absent urgent American action. [...] Further delaying or stopping [US] military assistance will lead to dramatic RUS gains later in 2024 and 2025 and, ultimately, to victory. The [US] thus has only two real choices today. It can quickly resume providing military aid [...]. Or it can let the RUS defeat the UKR military and drive toward the NATO borders from the Black Sea to central Poland. There is no third option. The risks of a Russian attack against NATO in the near future would rise dramatically if the US allows Russia to defeat Ukraine now, and the challenge of defending the Baltic States in particular could become almost insurmountable. These long-term risks and costs far outweigh the short-term price of resuming assistance to Ukraine." ME: There can be no security and stability in Europe without a free, independent and complete UKR. I have recently outlined the costs of a Russian victory in the report "Why Russia Cannot be Allowed to Win Against Ukraine". The consequences would be devastating. NATO’s border with Russia will increase from today’s 2,553 to 5,887 kilometers. Russian anti-access/area denial capabilities will move nearly 900 km closer to European capitals, enabling the Kremlin to control most of the Black Sea and much of Northern, Eastern and Central Europe. Europe will lose the strongest and most battle-hardened army on the continent and RUS will gain large parts of it, coercing and turning it for use against European states in a relatively short space of time. A RUS victory will be perceived as a Western and NATO defeat. NATO might not be able to survive due to the fundamental discord within the Alliance. It will be seen as having lost its ability to deter crises, conflicts and war. In the words of the Finnish DefMin: “There is a war going on in UKR for the future of the whole of Europe”. I will, therefore, like to strengthen ISWs assessment: UKR is presently defending NATO in Europe. Support to UKR, therefore, equals support to European security. The US can either resume its support of its allies and partners according to the Washington Treaty or declare NATO dissolved. There is no third option. 

India's Critical Mineral Paradox: Sitting on a Goldmine While Importing at Premium Prices I’ve spent time building businesses across consumer tech, telecom, and industrial sectors. Reading Alkesh Kumar Sharma’s strategic analysis on critical minerals was a wake-up call: India is racing toward clean energy leadership while dangerously dependent on imports for the very minerals that make it possible. Here’s the link: https://lnkd.in/dpjKHMsb This isn't just policy. It's national security and controlling our destiny in the 21st century economy. The vulnerability: India is 100% dependent on imports for lithium, cobalt, and nickel, over 90% for Rare Earth Elements. China controls 60% of global REE production and 85% of processing. We're targeting 500 GW renewable energy and net zero by 2070, while handing veto power over our clean energy future to geopolitical competitors. Having run P&Ls across markets, I know 100% import dependence isn't a supply chain. It's a strategic chokepoint. But India is sitting on untapped wealth. Geological Survey identified 5.9 million tonnes of lithium in J&K, significant REE deposits in Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. Yet mining contributes just 2.5% to GDP versus 13.6% in Australia. We have only 1% of global REE processing capacity. The government launched the National Critical Minerals Mission with ₹34,300 crore and auctioned 20 mineral blocks. The 2023 Mines Act opened private exploration. But execution determines everything. The urban goldmine: India generates 4 million tonnes of e-waste annually, only 10% formally recycled. Inside? The same minerals we're importing at massive cost. Attero proves what's possible. This Noida-based deeptech company achieves over 98% extraction efficiency in recovering rare earths like neodymium, praseodymium, and dysprosium, the exact elements we currently import. With over 200 patents filed and strong profitability, Attero’s revenue crossed approximately ₹1,000 crore in FY25, growing more than 50% year-on-year. The company works with all leading auto and battery manufacturers and is now expanding capacity sixfold to process 3 lakh tonnes annually, backed by significant capital infusion across India, Poland, and the US. India banned black mass exports, powder from shredded batteries we exported as cheap scrap to China, Korea, Japan who sold it back at 15-20x the price. This ban forces domestic refining. Attero proves we have the technology. The window is closing. If we don't build resilient supply chains through domestic mining, processing, and recycling, we're building our clean energy future on someone else's foundation. We have deposits, waste streams, and companies like Attero proving Indian technology competes globally. What we need is execution speed. #CriticalMinerals #CleanEnergy #AtmanirbharBharat #Sustainability #India

As geopolitical risks continue to evolve and intensify, it is essential for communication leaders to adapt and respond effectively to these challenges.   Recent geopolitical crises have underscored the importance of proactive and strategic communication. According to the AXA Future Risks Report 2024, geopolitical instability is now the second most concerning risk for experts globally, up from third place in 2023. At the same time, disinformation and misinformation on these crises, mainly led by technology, are expanding their potential consequences. This progression highlights the growing impact of geopolitical events on businesses and the need for robust communication strategies. Here are some key insights and thoughts I wanted to share:   👉 Anticipate and Listen: Setting up an infrastructure for listening and scenario planning is crucial. By strengthening our social listening and predictive capacities, we can better anticipate crisis and understand the different perspectives that exist around geopolitical issues. As one Chief Communication Officer (CCO) mentioned in the latest European Communication Monitor (ECM) report, "We need to be prepared every day to react, and at the same time, we have to be very clear about the frames in which we want to react."   👉 Consolidate and Connect: Strengthening internal discussions and nurturing a network of communication experts with diplomatic skills is vital. In a decentralized company, this helps in ensuring that our communication as a Group is sensitive to the nuances of different geopolitical contexts. As another CCO pointed out, "You also need experienced communicators in different countries who not only have a view of their country but also understand that even in a global company there is a global view that is not necessarily congruent with the view of each country.”   👉 Navigate Ambiguity: In a fragmented and polarized world, managing corporate communications means carefully choosing what to say and how to say it. This involves balancing business perspectives with stakeholder expectations and navigating the contradictions that arise from intensifying geopolitical risks.   👉 Engage Proactively: The expectations of stakeholders, including consumers and employees, are evolving. There is an increased demand for companies to take a stand on geopolitical issues. As highlighted in the ECM report, 58.6% of CCOs agree that the geopolitical context has a very concrete impact on business, and companies need to consider this evolution.   On a more specific note, the AXA Future Risks Report 2024 also reveals that 91% of experts believe insurers have a crucial role in safeguarding against emerging risks. As Chief Communications Officer, this is something I truly believe in, and I am grateful to rely on a network of very professional heads of communications, in all AXA entities, to help us spread the word, build resilience and strengthen trust during uncertain times!

⚠️ “BADLY HURT” ⚠️ When Russia invaded Ukraine 🇺🇦 almost 2 years and half ago, there were two main “mantra” in the global #energy debate. One – mainly supported by Russia 🇷🇺 authorities – was that Europe would have “frozen and be in dark” without Russia gas supplies Another one was that Russia would have found new markets – mainly #China 🇨🇳 and Asia – for the gas supplies not sold anymore to Europe 🇪🇺. The former did not happen – thanks to actions implemented by EU and also thanks to a dose of luck in the form of mild weather that reduced consumption and more LNG availability due to China’s subdued economic activity as a consequence of Covid vague. But also the latter did not happen.. at all. With Gazprom that has transformed from a gigantic cash machine for Kremlin pockets into a massive money lost. Natural gas is not the only source of revenues for country’s energy exports. It is not even the main one – as oil takes lion share. Yet, about 20% of Russia budget was coming from gas sales – largely to Europe – while oil revenues have been also impacted by lower selling prices. And what about China replacing Europe for Russia gas sales? The logic of many was simple: instead going westwards, the production of Western Siberia fields would have been diverted eastwards. The “small” problem is that the gas #business does not work like this and build a multi-thousands Km pipeline requires a lot of work and a lot of “willingness” between the two parties interested. A willingness that China proved so far to not have as the recent failure of talks between Russia and China Presidents have shown once more‼️ The result? Data are with no mercy… in the decade before the invasion, Russia gas exports to Europe averaged 230 billion cubic meters per year. In 2023, the exports to China were one order of magnitude lower and only 22 billion cubic meters… The bottom line is that while Europe is now in search of consolidating a new business model without abundant supplies of Russia energy, also Russia is better starting to look seriously of what doing of its energy blessing. Because its main client – the one that paid regularly and generously for decades – has gone and will not come back, at least not in the foreseeable future. And while Russia has showed throughout the history many times of how resilient is – reminding everyone to never underestimate it - the cash machines might get dry and remain so for a while… Time sometimes can definitely be a gentleman… #data #oilgas #future #innovation #technology #sustainability

We are at a pivotal moment. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗴𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝗶𝘀 𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗳𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴—𝗳𝗮𝘀𝘁, 𝘂𝗻𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗱𝗲𝗲𝗽𝗹𝘆 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗳𝘂𝗹.   Nowhere is this more evident than in the Asia-Pacific, which accounts for ~40% of U.S. imports across key sectors. In my recent conversations with CEOs across the region, one thing is clear: amid the uncertainty, leaders are moving decisively and recalibrating. They are responding with quiet intensity and structural action.    In these times of change, CEOs must focus on the following: 𝟭. 𝗗𝗶𝘀𝗿𝘂𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝘀𝗻’𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲, 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗲 𝗶𝘀 - Assess your product portfolio for tariff exposure. Key sectors such as steel, automotive, and electronics are already feeling the brunt of rising tariffs. Refine your pricing strategies and reconfigure supply chains to better navigate these impacts. 𝟮. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗼𝘀𝗲 𝘄𝗵𝗼 𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗽𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗶𝘁 - Scenario-based planning is essential. Build flexible models that account for both direct and ripple effects of trade shifts—agility is your strategic edge. 𝟯. 𝗙𝗹𝗲𝘅𝗶𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗸𝗲𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 - Shifting production and sourcing to regions with lower tariff exposure presents a unique opportunity to minimize cost impact and maintain competitive advantage. 𝟰. 𝗗𝗼𝗻’𝘁 𝗷𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗼𝗻𝗱—𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗱 - Set up a cross-functional team to track tariff developments and implement rapid responses. A proactive, collaborative approach turns disruption into opportunity, rather than simply weathering the storm.   In a world where change is constant, the ability to adapt quickly is not just an advantage—it’s a non-negotiable for sustained success.    Read more from our Global Advantage team on how we are helping businesses navigate this new reality with precision and foresight: https://lnkd.in/ert8gazK   #TradePolicy #AsiaPacific #Tariffs #GlobalEconomy #BCGInsights

Want to know what’s dominating CEO conversations right now? Here’s the latest data for Q1 2026 from IoT Analytics. Fresh off the press. 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐅𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬: • 𝐆𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐬 𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫: Mentions of Iran surged 550% QoQ, making it the fastest-rising topic. Broader geopolitical discussions are now in ~17.5% of earnings calls, moving from background noise to a core business variable. • 𝐄𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐲 𝐢𝐬 𝐛𝐚𝐜𝐤 𝐚𝐬 𝐚 𝐛𝐨𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐫𝐨𝐨𝐦 𝐢𝐬𝐬𝐮𝐞: Oil jumped from around $72 to over $110 per barrel before easing. CEOs are now focused on downstream impacts like transportation costs, supply chain disruption, and margin pressure. • 𝐀𝐈 𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐟𝐭𝐬 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐝𝐢𝐠𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐭𝐨 𝐩𝐡𝐲𝐬𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐞𝐱𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧: AI remains the top topic, but the emphasis is changing. Physical AI is up 116%, agentic AI continues to grow, and companies are actively deploying AI agents into operations. • 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐫𝐮𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐧𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐠: OpenClaw adoption is rising rapidly, bringing both excitement and security concerns. At the same time, early discussions around a “SaaSpocalypse” signal growing awareness that AI may fundamentally reshape software business models. 𝐌𝐲 𝐓𝐚𝐤𝐞: This is a clear shift from economic anxiety → operational reality. Last quarter was about tariffs and uncertainty. This quarter is about war, energy, and execution. At the same time, AI didn’t slow down at all. The conversation is now all about deployment at scale, and increasingly, deployment in the physical world. The most interesting signal I am seeing: 𝐖𝐞’𝐫𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐞𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐰𝐨 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐞 • Short-term disruption (geopolitics, energy shocks) • Long-term transformation (agentic + physical AI) That’s a tough combination. One forces you to play defense. The other demands you invest aggressively. Most companies are not structurally set up to do both well. 𝐅𝐨𝐫 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭: https://lnkd.in/eKhhcMp2 ******************************************* • Visit www.jeffwinterinsights.com for access to all my content and to stay current on Industry 4.0 and other cool tech trends • Ring the 🔔 for notifications!

The benefit of a century-long history is a lot of perspective. In 1959, our former colleague Gil Clee urged CEOs in the Harvard Business Review to create “world enterprises” to match the emerging post-war geopolitical order. Today, we see a similar moment of change… with a slightly different recommendation. In a new paper, my colleagues and I look at 10 geopolitical factors—from tariffs and shifting trade patterns to new controls on exports, technology and foreign investments—and outline how multinationals can evolve yet again… this time to prioritize adaptability and resilience alongside expansion, growth, and efficiency. Three specifics we believe leaders should consider: -Value at stake: Now is the time to stress-test your value creation thesis—are you positioned for the upside on shifting trade corridors, new incentives, and more? What losses are you willing to risk? -Governance structure: What flexibility can you embed in your legal and capital structures to help mitigate uncertainties (and capture opportunities) ahead? -Org structure: Which strategic reorganizations—from BUs to IT/data, supply chains, and geopolitical capabilities—will position the business to thrive? Workflow, talent, and culture are also crucial. You can find the full report here: https://lnkd.in/gkhrRz7Q Thanks to my coauthors Shubham Singhal, Cindy Levy, Brooke Weddle, Matt Watters, and Zoe Fox. And as we approach McKinsey & Company’s centennial, thanks to our colleagues—past and present—who have helped our clients on these topics for nearly 100 years.